How Cognitive Bias Influences Thinking And Decision-Making

Saying that someone is biased is often used as criticism. We point out when someone obviously favours a person or thing more than another. Bias is synonymous with being prejudiced and that has even more negative connotations. Being prejudiced means having an opinion not based on reason or reality. Thinking of that sort leads to bad judgements. In other words, we associate bias with poor thinking and bad decision-making.

But here is the kicker. We are all biased.

The scientific truth about bias

The definition of cognitive bias is:

“The way a particular person understands events, facts, and other people, which is based on their own particular set of beliefs and experiences and may not be reasonable or accurate.”

So, bias has an individual flavour to its complexity, but research has shown that there are some common trends as to how our bias manifests. In the ever-increasing body of scientific study about cognitive bias, the best place to start is with Daniel Kahneman’s book, Thinking Fast and Slow.

To explain the title, fast thinking (also called system 1 thinking) is the intuitive, often unconscious judgements that we make. Slow thinking (or system 2 thinking) is the more (seemingly) logical, conscious thought process that we employ. Neither system is better than the other, they are just different. Kahneman’s research shows that both systems are influenced by cognitive biases, and we generally choose to ignore these influences in our decision-making.

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.”

Daniel Kahneman

The brain is mind-blowing 

Therefore, bias affects all thinking, and decision-making is just one such thought process influenced by cognitive biases.

The way the brain works when making choices is a marvel of creation. The neural substrates that support our decision-making are not fully understood but, when we make choices, our brain is a light storm of synaptic activity, igniting the prefrontal cortex and pulsing out into the hippocampus, posterior parietal cortex and striatum.

Even before we know we are thinking, our network is leaping into action. Dendrites are stimulated and neurons are firing signals through the axons to other neurons at an astonishing rate.

Ironically, thinking about decision-making like this is mind-boggling!

Thinking of the brain simply as a computer is a poor analogy but, as with computer processing, the brain loves speed. And, to be as fast as possible, firing neurons love to take shortcuts. These shortcuts can help us make judgements at much greater velocities, but as I have already talked about with heuristics, these shortcuts can get us into trouble at times. They have nearly killed me on occasion! Closely linked to heuristics and these shortcuts are cognitive biases.

An example of my biases laid bare

I was wondering how to illustrate the effect of bias on our thinking and decisions and then something happened to me that made me examine many of my own biases. Let me share it with you.

Simon Sinek is one of my favourite writers and speakers and earlier this year Simon Sinek gave a talk about work and how we should love what we do. As ever, Simon’s message was heartfelt and compelling. There was so much I could agree with. I generally do love my work. As a leader, I want the people who work for me to love what they do, and I feel the responsibility for creating that psychologically safe environment where people do feel supported and allowed to flourish.

The funny thing was that I had a little niggle in the back of my head, telling me something was not quite right. So, I watched it again. Afterwards, reflecting on what Mr Sinek was saying, I was able to identify what had got my spider-sense tingling.

What makes a statement true and why do we believe it?

There were a couple of statements that I started to re-examine. The first one is:

“It is a right, it is a God-given right, that we should love where we work.”

Simon Sinek

As Simon says those words my heart is saying “Amen brother!” but my head is saying, “Is that actually true?”

So, I examine the statement again, leaning on the wisdom of others and the power of logical syllogism. The philosopher Karl Popper would start by pointing out that the statement is a non-scientific fact. The statement is not phrased as a logical premise, and it cannot be disproven by scientific means.

If you add theologians into the mix, they will point out that holy books such as the Bible or Koran don’t exactly say that loving work is a God-given right. The emphasis is on loving God and other people rather than work itself.

So, let’s use Simon Sinek’s own advice and “start with why” when we think about his statement. Why does he say that? The statement is actually a rhetorical device, used for emphasis and emotional response. And in those terms, it achieves its ends. But that leaves the question, why do I want the statement to be true, even if it isn’t a fact?

12 common cognitive biases in under 2 minutes

This is where we come to the flaws in my processing. My thinking is being influenced by multiple biases at once.

The first thing that I am experiencing is the Halo effect. In other words, I am likely to agree with whatever Simon Sinek says because I like and respect him. I expect him to be right. There is also an immediate anchoring effect too because when I see Simon Sinek, I think of Start With Why, a book I really enjoy. Therefore, I am expecting to like what he says.

Sinek is also a leadership guru and talks about things I care about, so I am also suffering from In-group bias, where I favour other leadership geeks; we are the same tribe. Hot on the heels of these preconceptions is groupthink. The interviewer and the people in the audience all seem to be nodding and smiling. I want to go with the consensus. What’s more, no one is challenging what he is saying so there is also a bystander effect. I am not going to make myself look stupid and say something might be wrong if they all seem to agree with him.

Yes, there are more biases yet!

Next is optimism bias. Simon Sinek is a self-proclaimed optimist, so it is not surprising that his message is alluringly optimistic. Also, I want it to be true – as I want to love all my work all the time – so confirmation bias creeps in. I hold to the belief that we can love work, so I start to suffer from belief bias too. I am also suffering from the just-world hypothesis by expecting things to be fair and for people to get what they deserve. Unfortunately, that is not reality.

That one line of logical fallacy is wrapped up amongst a host of other statements that I agree with and so there is also a framing effect. What I see as the validity of the whole talk influences the context in which I judge any one phrase.

And there is more. As I learn more about leadership, the more I realise that there is so much I don’t know. This is the Dunning-Kruger effect. So, I want to learn, and Simon Sinek is an expert I respect, so I naturally doubt the limits of my own knowledge. When I think about my own abilities, I have a negativity bias and suffer from imposter syndrome; therefore, I doubt myself even more.

The tip of the cognitive iceberg

So, I managed at least 12 cognitive biases in the space of two minutes. And that’s just the ones I can easily identify. There are many more biases and if you would like an introduction to a few more of the common ones then I recommend you visit yourbias.is

So, what am I trying to say? That what Simon Sinek says is bad? No, far from it. I remain a fan even if I cannot agree with every single thing he says. And that is fair enough, I don’t think I would agree with everything that has come out of my own mouth if I could only remember things accurately (rather than suffering from misinformation bias)!

The example I used was to demonstrate the dizzying quantity of cognitive biases that can be at play every time we think about something.

You are biased, but don’t panic. Reflect.

The takeaway point is that bias affects us all, all the time. And the tricky thing about bias is that it is hard to spot in ourselves (although seemingly we are able to spot it more easily in other people!)

“We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.”

Daniel Kahneman

If we want to think clearly and make effective decisions, we need to be aware. We cannot avoid cognitive bias but, if you are aware of your thought processes, you can reflect and critique your own thinking.

You can put your newfound knowledge into practice by having another look at the Simon Sinek interview yourself. There is much to enjoy in what he says but there is also at least one more logical fallacy or false statement in there. Can you identify what it is?

And, when you scroll through your social media today think about your reactions to what you are seeing. How are you being influenced? Which biases can you identify in your own thinking?

Congratulations! You are creating the foundations for better thinking and more effective decisions.

If you want the right answers you have to start with the right questions

About The Right Questions

The Right Questions is for people who want greater clarity, purpose and success. There is a wealth of resources to boost your effectiveness in achieving goals, your leadership of yourself and others, and your decision-making.

Wherever you are on your journey, I hope that you find information on this site to help you on the next leg of your quest. Even if that is just the inspiration to take one small step in the right direction, then that is a success. If you can take pleasure in learning and travelling as you go, then so much the better.

Need help navigating your journey to success?

I love to serve people, helping them unlock their potential, empowering them as leaders, and assisting them in achieving their goals. Please get in touch and let me know how I can support you!

How Not to be Limited by Your Assumptions

Assumptions are often necessary for decision-making, but we need to avoid wrong suppositions if we want to make the right choices. We can get things wrong by applying assumptions in inappropriate circumstances, basing expectations on bad data, or making assumptions based on wrong thinking.

I have experienced the results of decisons made on poor assumptions and, in the process, learnt a lot about how best to avoid them.

A truly immersive cinema experience

I was in my room, watching the Lord of the Rings (The Return of the King) on my laptop. I had my earphones in and, despite the small screen, I was gripped. It was the battle of Minas Tirith, and the city was surrounded by an evil horde of orcs with their siege engines. As the army attacked the city and the rocks flew from the catapults, pounding the citadel I could almost feel the walls shaking. Another huge stone soared through the air to strike. Boom! My chair wobbled.

The sound on my laptop was good but I had definitely felt something. I took out my earphones and listened. The was a crashing sound, this time from outside my room, not from my computer.

Bother I thought, we are under attack.

This was a fair assumption as I was in a military base just outside Basra in 2004. It just turned out that, in a weird bit of synchronicity, that the local militants had decided to attack our base with rockets, just when I was enjoying a bit of downtime and watching a movie. Very inconsiderate of them I thought.

So, I put on my helmet and body armour and – doing my best to exude calm – walked out of my room into the chaos outside, then headed to the operations room. All the while I was thinking, “we expected to be welcomed; we were coming to help after all.”  How wrong we were!

Assumptions, decision-making and planning

There is a phrase about presuppositions, famous in military circles:

“Assumptions are the mother of all f***-ups”

Anon

This is not entirely true, but it does highlight the fact that bad assumptions can have disastrous effects. In the Army, when judgements often have life or death implications, making a wrong assumption could be fatal, as I nearly found out while working as a bomb disposal officer in Africa. And again now, in Iraq, it was turning out that the decisions and planning were based on some very poor assumptions. As a result, the situation was a mess.

What is an assumption and are all assumptions bad?

An assumption is something we accept to be true, even if we are lacking all the evidence. But assumptions are not necessarily bad. We sometimes need to make assumptions in decision-making as we cannot have absolutely all the information we want or need when making a choice.

For example, when I go to buy a flat white from a coffee shop, then I assume that the barista knows how to make one. I will probably look for information to back up that assumption such as, whether they list a flat white on the menu. To reduce the risk of the assumption I might also employ a heuristic (a decision-making hack), such as going to a shop I know and trust, to reduce the risk of getting a bad coffee. In this case, the assumption and the heuristic are sound. However, if I employed that same assumption in the wrong place, for example, a Turkish coffee house in Istanbul, then I might be disappointed when it comes to a flat white. Not only that, but I would also be missing out on some excellent Turkish coffee due to my bias for flat whites!

So, we can make assumptions in our thinking but first, we need to separate out what is a fact and what is an assumption. Once we identified an assumption then we must be sure it is a reasonable one, particularly if we take an assumption we often make and then apply it to a new context.

Assumptions based on inaccurate information

Some assumptions are not just applied to the wrong situation, they are based on corrupt data in the first place. We can compound the problem by then taking this inaccurate or limited information and then processing it poorly, due to cognitive bias. Going back to my earlier story, this was certainly the case with the war in Iraq.

Donald Rumsfeld, the American politician, famously said:

“Because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.”

There is a lot of wisdom there; although it is unfortunate that Rumsfeld himself did not pay enough attention to his own advice. It turns out, what were thought to be knowns were not knowns at all. They were a mixture of assumptions and wishful thinking.

In 2003, a bunch of bad assumptions, built on poor information, resulted in the US-led coalition intervening in Iraq and deposing Saddam Hussein. The intelligence cited in the ‘dodgy dossier’ has long been challenged. The evidence was based not just on bad information but was also warped by cognitive bias.

Bad assumptions just breed further wrong assumptions

And these assumptions and biases played out at every level. I deployed to Iraq fully believing that we wouldunearth weapons of mass destruction at any moment. For me the logic was simple. Saddam Hussein had used chemical weapons before, in the Iran-Iraq war and even against his own people. Therefore, when I heard that he still had weapons of mass destruction that made perfect sense. Apart from the fact he didn’t. We were suffering from narrative bias, amongst other things.

One of the populations who suffered from these chemical weapons and other persecution were the Shia tribes in Southern Iraq. So, we assumed a welcome after Saddam was removed and we went to rebuild Southern Iraq. This was positivity bias at the very least, but also a massive lack of true understanding. It did not take many months, or many rocket attacks and roadside bombs, to realise quite how wrong our assumptions were.

So, we must not apply our assumptions to the wrong situation. Nor do we make assumptions on bad data. And that means not being selective in the information one chooses to consider. To reduce the negative effects of cognitive bias we must employ a range of information sources and a diversity of viewpoints.

Negative assumptions based on bad thinking

The other trap we can fall into with assumptions is bad thinking. By that I mean we can have wrong assumptions that are embedded, often unconsciously, in our minds. These beliefs often come from bad experiences or negative things that have been said to us in our past. If someone calls you “stupid” then you can start to believe it. We can start to believe these are facts when they are, at best, just subjective ideas.

Negative assumptions are often tied up with our feelings of self-worth. For example, you could be attracted to someone but afraid to ask them out on a date. You might be thinking “I am not good enough for them” or “they are out of my league.” These were certainly my thoughts when I met one particularly beautiful girl back in college. When I spoke about her with my friends, even they thought I was trying to bat above my average (thanks guys!) Fortunately, I overcame this wrong thinking (and bad advice) and nearly 20 years later I am still happily married to that wonderful woman.

“The most tenacious block to new ideas is limiting assumptions.” 

Nancy Kline

We all have hang-ups and insecurities that clog our neural pathways. The author and coach Nancy Kline calls these blockages in our minds limiting assumptions. Limiting assumptions stop us from thinking and acting properly. In my experience, a large part of coaching is listening out for such internal defeater-beliefs and asking incisive questions to help clear them away. And if you don’t have a coach to talk through your decision then ask yourself, what assumptions am I making that are just subjective thoughts?

We all must make a philosophical choice about what we choose to believe. Take a good look at what you think is true; examine it and test it before you make a decision – particularly an important one – based on that assumption.

The four steps to testing assumptions

As we have seen, assumptions are often necessary for decision-making but wrong assumptions can lead to poor choices and bad outcomes.

So, if we want to avoid poor assumptions follow these four steps:

  • First, separate out assumption from fact.
  • Second, only use an assumption in the appropriate context.
  • Third, don’t make an assumption based on bad information or selected through bias.
  • Fourthly, examine your beliefs to ensure they are not just limiting assumptions based on wrong thinking.

If we make these checks then we are much more likely to be able to make a good decision. You can start with a choice you have to make today. Have a think through the four steps. What assumptions are you making and are they rational?

And remember, as decision-making guru Darren Matthew observes,

“Your important decisions will work better with fewer assumptions.”

 

If you want the right answers you have to start with the right questions

About The Right Questions

The Right Questions is for people who want greater clarity, purpose and success. There is a wealth of resources to boost your effectiveness in achieving goals, your leadership of yourself and others, and your decision-making.

Wherever you are on your journey, I hope that you find information on this site to help you on the next leg of your quest. Even if that is just the inspiration to take one small step in the right direction, then that is a success. If you can take pleasure in learning and travelling as you go, then so much the better.

Need help navigating your journey to success?

I love to serve people, helping them unlock their potential, empowering them as leaders, and assisting them in achieving their goals. Please get in touch and let me know how I can support you!

The 36 Proven Decision-Making Tools That I Most Recommend

Which mental models (if any) do you use to make decisions? There is a lot to choose from. Do you know the best decision-making tools for each situation?

Over the years I have been taught, and then tried and tested many decision-making approaches. I have also researched, adapted, and even invented a few others along the way.

In writing this recent series of articles on decision-making, I thought I would collate and share the decision-making heuristics, processes, and approaches that I use the most. These are all tools that I find the most helpful, whether making decisions in a personal context or in my work as a leader, strategy consultant and executive coach.

Having experimented with these approaches in different situations over the years I have found certain models that are my ‘go to’ tools for certain circumstances. Therefore, I have grouped the tools by context. I hope you find some familiar faces and new friends among the models below.


For easing or improving simple choices

Take a chance

It really is not worth sweating the small stuff. If choice really does not matter, then just flip a coin (if it is a binary decision) or roll some dice (if there are multiple options). This approach can seem flippant (pun intended) but can also provide deeper insight. Once you have flipped or rolled then reflect on how you feel about the result. If you are overly disappointed at the result, then maybe you cared more about the decision than you admitted to yourself. If this is the case, you might want to reconsider.

Replace the decision

If it is a simple decision, then replace it with an automatic process or quick heuristic (rule of thumb). We can spend a lot of time each day thinking about what to wear, what to eat, or what to do. Creating routines reduces these decisions to allow time and energy for more important decisions.

Make a habit

To reinforce good decisions, we need good habits. In order to develop good habits, we need to assess the process of stimulus and response. I favour Charles Duhigg’s model, the habit loop when analysing and experimenting with developing new habits. Work out:

  • The cue – the stimuli
  • The routine – the response or required action
  • The reward – the payoff gained or gratification from the activity

For when you need more information to decide

Ask a trusted person

If in doubt, phone a friend! And don’t just ask friends. What you want when making a choice is informed – and sometimes critical – thought. Friends and family can often tell you want to hear, rather than what you need to hear. So, ask a person who will give you a straight answer. That might even be a competitor or someone you don’t get on with. If it is a complex issue, then ask several different people. The more diverse the group of people the more useful the data will be for informing your decision.

Rub your nose against it

In the military, there is a saying that “time spent in reconnaissance is seldom wasted.” In other words, if you are deciding what to do, there is nothing quite as good as seeing the ground for yourself. In mountaineering, there is a similar phrase, that you should “rub your nose against the mountain” before deciding. Things can look very different when you are up close to them. So, if you have an important decision to make, try to get an immersive experience to inform you. See it, try it. Engage the senses, then decide.


For when you need to commit

Get accountable

If you need to choose and stick to your decision then make yourself accountable to someone. Many people use a professional coach for this, but you can use someone else, as long as you trust them not to let you off the hook!

Put your money where your mouth is

Put money against your decision to make it stick. There are even apps now that allow you to put up a sum of money that goes to charity if you fail in your decision or goal. The money is controlled by a trusted third party who can release the cash back if you see your decision through. George Halachev has an article on Better Humans with 6 you could try.

Announce first, decide later

If you are still unsure of your exact choice but still want to commit, then you can set a self-imposed deadline. Announce publicly that you are to going to share your decision on a particular date. This does not need to be a press release, it could be just to friends, colleagues, or family, but it is much harder to go back on a choice when it is shared (just ask any government!) A deadline also helps to focus the mind.


For big or important decisions

Consider consequences

If you are trying to work out if a decision is significant then it is worth thinking through the consequences. The importance of a choice is relative to its impact. Ask yourself, what is the worst that can happen? Then ask, is this decision reversible? If the impact is small or the decision is reversible then you should not delay. As Darren Matthews recommends, ask where will this decision take us?

Personal values

Knowingly or unknowingly, we make many decisions based on our individual beliefs. Our most important decisions – such as whom we want to marry or spend our life with – are informed by our principles. We may differ from someone in skills and interests but be bonded by precepts. Therefore, it is important to work out your own personal values. The hardest decisions in life are often the ones where our values are in tension with one another. If you understand that tension you can find ways to choose.


For judgements based on your personality 

The Big 5 personality traits

As well as knowing personal values it is important to understand our personality type. This helps us play to our strengths and compensate for our weaknesses when we make decisions. There are plenty of psychometric tools available to help but my preferred model is the Big 5 or OCEAN model. This assesses your personality across five factors:

  • Openness to experience (curious vs cautious)
  • Conscientiousness (efficient vs extravagant)
  • Extraversion (outgoing vs reserved)
  • Agreeableness (compassionate vs critical)
  • Neuroticism (sensitive vs resilient)

There are plenty of free tests you can do online, just do a quick search and try one.


For rational decision-making

Consider factors

When assessing a choice rationally, work out what the key factors are that affect the decision. For example, when buying a home these might be things like location, type of property, number of rooms, access to transport etc.

Weighted factors

Once you have a long list of factors you will likely find that some factors are more important than others. For example, as per the example above, the location might be more important than the exact type of property. Therefore, give greater weight to more important factors. If you were scoring your options, you can multiply a factor’s scores relative to their importance.

Pros and cons

Once you have worked out the factors influencing a decision and weighted them, you are still likely to have different options to choose from. To approach the decision logically, consider the pros (advantages) and cons (disadvantages) of each course of action you can take.


For a faster decision-making process

The OODA loop

If you want to speed up decision-making for you, your team or your organisation then you can use the OODA loop to analyse your processes. OODA represents a decision-making cycle in its basic form. It stands for observeorientatedecide and act; the key steps of decision-making. By studying the cycle, working through each stage of the process, you can identify where you are faster or slower in making choices. Then you can identify ways to speed up that element of the cycle.


For generative and creative thinking

Mindmapping

When making notes I tend to use mindmaps. These are particularly good in assisting decision-making as they keep to one page, forcing you to crystallise and prioritise information. Having the data branch out from the central concept also allows links to be made between ideas that might not have been seen in linear notes.

The Thinking Environment

The best way to help someone make a decision is to help them to think clearly. Nancy Kline developed the principles of the Thinking Environment based on research and practice over the course of 30 years. The components of the Thinking Environment include attention, equality, ease, appreciation, encouragement, information, feelings, diversity, incisive questions, andplace. And the most important thing we can do: give people our full attention and really listen (without interrupting) when they are trying to think.

The 6 Thinking Hats

Edward de Bono, the advocate of lateral thought, developed the 6 hats approach to considering problems. The idea is to look at the problem from 6 different perspectives that are represented by 6 coloured hats. The hats are:

  • White hat – analytical and fact-based
  • Red hat – emotional and subjective
  • Black hat – critical and sceptical, identifying risks
  • Yellow hat – optimistic, looking at best case
  • Green hat – creative, brainstorming
  • Blue hat – the big picture, structured and strategic

For choosing life goals and improving work-life balance

The Wheel of Life

The wheel of life is a great way to look at life balance. You simply draw a circle and divide it into segments (usually 8). Name each segment after a role or aspect of life. These could include family, health, work, learning, leisure, finance, relationships, spirituality for example. Then score and mark up each element; a zero being the centre of the circle, 10 being the outside. You now have a visual representation of which aspects of life you want to improve.

The GROW model

The GROW model is one of the most common coaching tools for choosing and refining life goals. GROW stands for goal, reality, options and will and is applied in this way:

  • Goal – define and state the aim
  • Reality – analyse the present situation and how that affects the goal
  • Options – consider different courses of action and any obstacles that stand in the way
  • Will – make the decision and commit to it

For choosing a vocation or career

The perfect day

When coaching people through a career change, the first exercise I recommend is writing out their idea of a perfect day. This dream – developed in detail from the moment of waking, to going to sleep – is a powerful way to inform what future work-life balance should look like.

Writing your eulogy 

The second exercise is to write your own eulogy. This might sound morbid but, writing a fictional version of what you would want to be said at your funeral, or written as your obituary, changes your perspective from the here and now, to the end of life. This challenges short-term ideas of success and reveals longer lasting values. These exercises are surprisingly powerful.


For situational awareness and deciding upon a strategy

The 5Ws

The 5Ws approach uses interrogative words starting with a w (why, where, what, who, when). The H of howis usually added to this list and I have found that adding which is very helpful too in decision-making. It is a technique I was taught as a bomb disposal officer. The idea with the 5Ws is that you list the question words and use them as triggers or prompts for questions related to the problem. For example, the whereinterrogative can prompt inquiries such as where have we come from, where are we now and where are we going?

The SWOT analysis

Ok, so you are very likely to know the SWOT analysis but don’t discount it just because it is common. There is a good reason why it is so popular. SWOT – as you may know – stands for strengthsweaknesses,opportunities, and threats and is generally drawn as a 2-by-2 matrix. The SWOT is a quick and effective way to get a snapshot of a situation, by brainstorming the critical points in each quadrant. It was developed with organisational strategy in mind, but I have also found it useful for individuals too. Some of the best insights come from identifying relationships between the quadrants.

The Hedgehog Concept

As well as being an entrepreneur in my own right I have worked in and with many start-ups. When working with growing businesses, developing strategy, one of the most insightful tools I have used is the one set out by Jim Collins in his bestselling book Good to Great. It is what he calls the Hedgehog Concept, based on the Greek parable that says “the fox knows many things but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” The model is drawn as a Venn diagram; three circles that encompass three questions:

  • What are you deeply passionate about?
  • What can you be the best in the world at?
  • What drives your economic engine?

There will be various answers to these questions but when the answers align, in the centre, is the answer to what you should be focussing on.


For productivity and prioritisation

The Eisenhower matrix

Another well-known tool, the Eisenhower matrix uses a 2-by-2 grid as per the SWOT analysis but this time the matrix relates to two axes: what is important and what is urgent. This creates four fields that you can sort your tasks into, and what you should do about them:

  1. Urgent and important – do them now
  2. Not urgent but important – plan them into your diary
  3. Urgent but not-important – try to delegate these to someone else
  4. Not urgent or important – try to avoid or reduce these activities

The Pareto principle

The Pareto principle – or 80:20 rule – is a simple rule of thumb for inputs and outputs. The idea is that 80 per cent of our productivity and profit is likely to come from 20 per cent of our work or client base. It is an easy but effective way of assessing where you should focus your time and energy.

Be more Steve

Productivity largely comes down to good prioritisation and Steve Jobs used to ask himself one critical question every time he had to choose what to do next. He asked, “if you could do just one thing, what would it be?” In other words, what is the single most important, impactful way you can use your next block of time? Do that. Be more Steve.


For when you want to delegate tasks and evaluate decisions

SMARTER tasks

A ‘SMART’ task is one that is specific, measurable, attainable, relevant and time-bound. This is good to remember for your own goals. But people often forget to use the SMARTER framework that adds evaluateand re-evaluate to the SMART acronym. This allows for the assessment and, if necessary the adjustment, of decisions and plans as the situation progresses. Don’t just be SMART, be SMARTER when you set goals.

Traffic lights

There are lots of ways to review decisions, assess projects and identify lessons but my favourite method is the traffic light approach. It is based on three simple questions to consider after an event:

  • Red – what should we stop doing?
  • Amber – what should we continue doing?
  • Green – what should we start doing?

For defining the challenge and problem-solving

The Cynefin framework

Problems are not made equal and if we wrongly identify the type of issue we are facing then we can make the situation worse, not better. The Cynefin framework helps us define problems and therefore assess the correct approach.

  • Clear problems are simple and have tried and tested best practice solutions
  • Complicated problems can be assessed using first principles and good practice
  • Complex problems are new, emergent issues that require an experimental approach
  • Chaotic problems require swift action to create enough order to move the problem into another quadrant

For choosing the right leadership or management style

The Grint Model

Keith Grint’s model relates different leadership approaches to varying problem types, but in a more simplified way than the Cynefin framework. The Grint method says that for:

  • Tame problems, that have known solutions, use a tested plan and manage the process
  • Critical problems, where there is crisis or time is limited, then command and provide quick, clear direction
  • Wicked problems, where there are no simple or good responses, then lead, providing a clear vision and empowering people to deal with complexity

Situational leadership

Another related model is the situational leadership model developed by Kenneth Blanchard. The model assesses the circumstances and the capability of the team to guide the leader into either:

  • Directing – when time is critical, or team confidence is low
  • Delegating – when teams are capable to do the task with little management
  • Supporting – where trust is high, and teams can mutually support one another
  • Coaching – when individuals might need focussed support to develop confidence

For choosing and developing a team

The 3Cs

When choosing a team member, I refer back to the 3Cs or character, competence and chemistry, recommended by Bill Hybels in his book Courageous Leadership. These 3Cs should be considered in that order when hiring because:

  • Character is hardest to develop, and bad characters can do you the most harm
  • Competence is important but people (especially of the right character) can develop this
  • Chemistry is less important. It is great to like people but hiring people just because they are similar to us is not the recipe for a successful team, as we shall see in the next model.

The Belbin Team Roles

Meredith Belbin conducted research over a couple of decades that identified the 9 critical roles that are needed within any team. Some people have preferences for certain roles, but each function is critical to success. Whatever size of the team this model will help you work out what needs to be done and who is best to fulfil each role (if you know your people). The titles and descriptions are as follows:

  • Plants are highly creative and good at solving problems
  • Resource Investigators connect with the world outside the team, bringing in external views on opportunities and competition
  • Monitor Evaluators provide a logical, impartial view and help to weigh up options
  • Co-ordinators focus on the objective and delegate tasks to team members
  • Implementers plan and manage a workable strategy
  • Completer Finishers bring high standards, see errors, and add polish to the final solution
  • Team workers help the team gel and identify things that need doing to help the team
  • Shapers challenge and provide momentum by driving the team forward
  • Specialists provide in-depth knowledge within a key area

The Tuckman Cycle

If you want to know where your team is on the journey to high performance, then the Tuckman cycle can help analyse which stage you are at. Bruce Tuckman identified that every team goes through these phases:

  • Forming – coming together, tentatively
  • Storming – working out roles, often with friction
  • Norming – settling into a functioning team
  • Performing – team synergy is producing exponential gains
  • Adjourning – a project ends or team member leaves, starting the cycle to start again

For help in moving a team from one stage to another, I also recommend the Drexler-Sibbet model.

Start now and try one!

Making effective decisions is a skill. Honing that skill requires practise but the good news is that there is a host of models, tools and processes that can help to refine that competency.

So next time you need to make a decision, work out which tool would best situation. Choose one of the models listed above and give it a try. I recommend you make a note of the approach you use, your decision and then review your choice later. This reflection process is probably the most important aspect of improving your decision-making skills. We need practice and feedback in order to improve.

Think about what you must do today. Which mental model could help you make the right choice? Give it a go!

If you want the right answers you have to start with the right questions

About The Right Questions

The Right Questions is for people who want greater clarity, purpose and success. There is a wealth of resources to boost your effectiveness in achieving goals, your leadership of yourself and others, and your decision-making.

Wherever you are on your journey, I hope that you find information on this site to help you on the next leg of your quest. Even if that is just the inspiration to take one small step in the right direction, then that is a success. If you can take pleasure in learning and travelling as you go, then so much the better.

Need help navigating your journey to success?

I love to serve people, helping them unlock their potential, empowering them as leaders, and assisting them in achieving their goals. Please get in touch and let me know how I can support you!

The Surprising Power of Going for a Walk

Steve Jobs enjoyed the productivity of walking meetings. William Wordsworth’s creativity flowed from being in the open air. Aristotle lectured on the move and Henry David Thoreau did his best thinking while sauntering about.

What could taking a stroll do for you?

Walking can inspire conversation, improve relationships, unlock creativity, foster mindfulness, reduce stress and increase productivity. Walking also improves physical health and overall mental wellbeing. Here are some reasons why:

Time to think

Walking gives times time for reflection. There is a multitude of things clamouring for our attention so it is very easy to become reactive rather than proactive in our decision-making. Equally, being busy hampers our ability to create space and think creatively.

It is very hard to think constructively if pressed up against someone on public transport, while concentrating on driving or when staring at a computer screen. We need the time and the environment to think properly.

Getting up and taking a walk, even if it is to the water cooler, the coffee shop or local-park, can improve your thought processes. As Henry David Thoreau commented, getting out for a walk helps to free us from worldly engagements. Then we can start to think more clearly.

Perspectives

“We are fallen mostly into pieces but the wild returns us to ourselves.”  Robert Macfarlane

Getting up and walking can help to give perspective. When we sit and concentrate on something we naturally focus on one thing. As we dwell on something it magnifies and the task or challenge can take over the whole of our field of vision and dominate the conscious mind. Concentration of this sort is very powerful but if we hit some sort of blockage – be that cognitive or emotional – it is very hard to break out of that situation.

By stepping out we can free ourselves of these confines and find a new perspective. Being able to see the horizon can make a real difference in how we feel. When our senses are triggered by other stimuli – be that sun or rain on our faces, the smell of wet grass or freshly baked bread, or the sound of a river or the wind in the trees – then our thoughts and feelings can be brought into context. Once we regain a clearer perspective then we allow new ideas and energy to flow in. In this way, we can better deal with the challenges we are facing.

Mindfulness and Thankfulness

There is a growing interest in mindfulness and this interest highlights the importance of being able to appreciate the present rather than living in the future or in the past. Being in the moment can help keep us grounded and can reduce stress.

There are various approaches to this sort of meditative state but I find that being in creation, surrounded by nature, fosters in me a feeling of thankfulness and spiritual connection that I do not experience in other circumstances. Walking can promote a positive or prayerful state, particularly when surrounded by the grandeur and beauty of the natural world.

Creative Space

A study at Stanford demonstrated that a person’s creative output increases by an average of 60% when walking (Opezzo and Schwartz, 2014). The research proved that just the physical activity of walking makes us more creative.

When we add an improved environment to this activity, by getting outside, our creativity can improve all the more. Being open to external influences and new experiences enable us to generate new connections and solutions.

Sitting still by definition means you are not going anywhere. Walking, by contrast, has direction, momentum and purpose. If you hit a blockage in your thinking get on the move to enable your problem solving.

Therefore it is no surprise that writers, poets, entrepreneurs and great thinkers down the ages have often taken long walks to spark their imagination and inventiveness.

“All truly great thoughts are conceived while walking.”

Friedrich Nietzsche

An Aid to Productivity

I am a keen reader and walking and reading are not easy (and generally not recommended), but with the advent of mobile technology, we can enjoy podcasts and audiobooks as well as music on our walks. In this way, walking can be a learning experience.

We can get work done too. I frequently save telephone calls for when I am walking between engagements, as this is a good use of time as well as generally being more pleasant than sitting at a desk. With increasingly good software available on mobile devices it is now easy to dictate as you walk too. You can capture thoughts, draft emails and make appointments as you amble along. Just remember, if you want time to think and reflect, remember to take your earphones out from time to time!

A journey to better relationships

I often choose to go for a walk when meeting someone. Whether it is discussing something with my wife, having a work meeting or even conducting a coaching session, I often find that going for a walk is conducive to good conversation. I think this is partly due to some of the reasons already outlined but there is also a powerful physical and psychological link that is created by walking with someone.

When walking together you are generally side-by-side as equals. This equality in proximity can help to foster parity in the thinking and conversation. Even when meeting someone in a line-management context there is no desk to get in the way or dominance from someone sitting in a larger chair. Getting outside generally provides a neutral environment too. By removing people from a work or even a home situation, not only are distractions reduced, but you can also create a place where people feel they matter in equal terms.

Walking with purpose

When you are walking together you are also going in the same direction. This is important as it can help to bring alignment psychologically. It develops a partnership as, by the nature of walking together, you are sharing a common purpose and destination. This can help bring about the same if your conversation.

In this was walking is in contrast to sitting facing someone, which is often the way we conduct meetings, and psychologically the reverse. When sitting (or standing) facing someone you can easily become more defensive of adversarial. The dynamic can become one of holding ground, looking in opposite directions. This can lead to a more critical form of debate. If emotions get raised then walking can work off some of the energy through exertion. If you are facing someone it is harder to de-escalate a situation.

Communicating on the move

If walking is so good for communication, what about eye contact? This is a good point, and in most circumstances, I would recommend good eye contact for effective listening. When walking, as long as there are not too many obstacles, you can frequently look to the person talking, but eye contact is hard to maintain.

This situation can have some advantages though. Maintaining eye contact can sometimes make people feel self-conscious and in some situations or cultures, it can even be inappropriate. Walking can provide a less pressured context for listening although it may take more concentration by the listener to make sure someone is properly heard and encouraged.

Walking can have another advantage in aiding listening. The act of walking makes silences less pronounced and awkward. This means it is easier to give time and space for introspection and the construction of a thoughtful response. It reduces the need to quickly respond to what someone has said without reflection.

Walking to better health

“Walking is man’s best medicine” Hippocrates

The various physical and mental health benefits of walking have been known for a long time and are widely reported. Walking provides an easy (most of us do it already), cheap (no gym fees) and accessible (you can do it pretty much anywhere) way to do exercise.

It has been shown that even 20 minutes of light exercise, such as walking, can reduce the risk of death considerably, as was highlighted in the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Research conducted by Cambridge University has shown that even in cities with pollution the benefits outweigh the risks.

So why not take a stroll yourself?

So walking can help you solve problems, gain clarity, have effective one-to-one meetings and helps you get fitter to boot.

Not sure about the weather? Well the Norwegians say there is no such thing as bad weather, just inappropriate clothing (and there are still nice places to walk inside if you disagree!)

And for inspiration I leave you with this:

“Above all, do not lose your desire to walk. Every day I walk myself into a state of well-being and walk away from every illness. I have walked myself into my best thoughts, and I know of no thought so burdensome that one cannot walk away from it.”  Soren Kierkegaard

Now, why not take a stroll for yourself?

If you would like access to some bonus content and get updates then please do sign up for my email list.


References

Opezzo and Schwartz, 2014; http://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/xlm-a0036577.pdf)

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/walking-and-cycling-good-for-health-even-in-cities-with-higher-levels-of-air-pollution

If you want the right answers you have to start with the right questions

About The Right Questions

The Right Questions is for people who want greater clarity, purpose and success. There is a wealth of resources to boost your effectiveness in achieving goals, your leadership of yourself and others, and your decision-making.

Wherever you are on your journey, I hope that you find information on this site to help you on the next leg of your quest. Even if that is just the inspiration to take one small step in the right direction, then that is a success. If you can take pleasure in learning and travelling as you go, then so much the better.

Need help navigating your journey to success?

I love to serve people, helping them unlock their potential, empowering them as leaders, and assisting them in achieving their goals. Please get in touch and let me know how I can support you!

How to Give the Gift of Generative Thinking

Leading people is all about telling people what to do right? And helping people solve their problems is down to good advice, yes?

Well, no; on both counts actually.

Both research and practice have shown that while instruction and advice can be helpful (in certain circumstances) generally there is a better approach to assisting people to think and make good choices. More than 20 years as a leader and 10 years as an executive coach has certainly taught me that. Not only that, my experience as a parent has also shown the limitations of a purely directive approach to managing and decision-making. These things are not just limited to our business interactions. This is about basic communication skills.

The thing that has helped me most in turning this understanding into adopting a better approach has been the work of Nancy Kline. She has over three decades of research into independent thought and the barriers to quality decision-making. Her book, Time to Think, has impacted me more than anything else I have read in the past 5 years. It is also the book I recommend the most both professionally and personally.

Nancy Kline developed a framework called the Thinking Environment. This is made up of ten components: attention, equality, ease, appreciation, encouragement, information, feelings, diversity, incisive questions,and place. All these elements are important for facilitating quality thinking but, in my experience, there are three things that people struggle with the most and one thing that is more important than all the rest. These are:

  • Attention – truly listening without interruption
  • Incisive questions – knowing what to ask and when
  • Information – sharing facts and experience, not advice

And the most important thing is the first. Attention.

The most empowering thing to assist people’s thinking

How many times have you been challenged with “Hey! Are you listening?” The scary thing is that you are likely to hear that from the people you care about the most. What does that say about how we appreciate the people we love? That is what attention demonstrates. It is an affirmation of our feelings for the other person. And that is because giving attention requires effort.

Sound is going in our ears all the time but that does not mean we are really hearing. That is the difference between passive and active listening. To truly give attention to someone, we must actively focus on that person and what they are saying. That means no distractions and no interruptions. Empathetic listening goes even further. We must engage our emotional intelligence to pick up on non-verbal cues. We need to engage our intuition and feelings to relate to what is being communicated, not just what is being said.

Interrupting people damages quality independent thought on several levels. Firstly, it is rude. Cutting in on someone expresses that you think what you have to say is more important than what they have to say. You may not intend to communicate that but it is what most people will feel. Secondly, an interruption also cuts into someone’s thought flow. At the very least it will cause a break in thinking and very likely whatever is said will push the flow of thoughts in a different direction.

Not saying something is really, really hard to do. I get it; I have been coaching for years and still, every time, I must fight the urge to talk. That is because our brains are not inactive. What we hear from the other person sparks thoughts, ideas, and memories of our own. These thoughts bubble up and we want to share them. We want to because they are brilliant, thoughtful, helpful things to say, or at least we think they are! But that is just an assumption. Trust me. Hold onto those thoughts and don’t say anything.

Sometimes I do a simple mental exercise to help. When a thought comes into my head and I feel myself losing concentration I picture a door closing on my idea, locking it away, so I can focus and listen once again.

Even once the other person goes quiet, do not immediately say something. Not even a question. Many times, when coaching, there has been a long silence and I have been tempted to ask another question. Then suddenly the other person has started speaking again, revealing a new – frequently deeply – cascade of ideas that would have been lost if I had spoken too soon.

So, give people your attention. Listen, and most importantly don’t interrupt them!

The most powerful type of question you can ask 

When it does come time to speak don’t share your ideas, don’t even comment on what they have said. Even if they ask, “so what do you think?” you can turn the focus back to them. I often say something like, “I think you are doing a great job thinking this through, what more do you think or feel or want to say?” This generally releases another flow of thoughts and ideas.

If the thoughts do dry up then questions, rather than advice, is most helpful. And the best questions, the ones Kline refers to as incisive questions, are ones that identify assumptions. We all make assumptions in our thinking and decision-making. We make them so often that we often forget to see them for what they are: assumptions, not facts. It often takes someone else to challenge our thinking. Our assumptions might be reasonable but very frequently we feel unable to act because we have a false assumption that is blocking our progress.

These assumptions are often tied to our internal monologues. We often don’t do something because we assume we are not beautiful enough, rich enough, clever enough, brave enough or just not good enough. We all have some negative ideas around how we see ourselves or how we expect other people to judge us.

So, ask questions such as “what are you assuming that is stopping you?” and allow the other person to list their assumptions, as there are likely to be more than one. Then you can ask which assumption is the biggest blocker. Once identified the next question should explore whether the person thinks the assumption is true or not. Quite often, at this stage, people realise that the assumption is not true, or at least not limiting, and suddenly they are free to act.

All the advice in the world is not as powerful as seeing people released from these sorts of limiting beliefs. Seeing people liberated in this way and being part of facilitating that is one of the most wonderful things you can do. Ask any coach, counsellor or psychiatrist.

Provide critical information rather than advice

Once you have listened and – if needed – asked some pertinent questions, it may be that the other person needs some information. The temptation is to provide input too early in the conversation. But there is a difference between helping people think through issues themselves and keeping people in ignorance.

If the other person gets stuck in their thinking, and it is obvious that there is some information that the other person is missing, then it is time to speak. But frame what you say.

The most helpful phrase I use at this stage is to preface what I say with “in my experience” and then go on to share what I have in mind. Just because something has worked or not worked for us does not make it a fact. If there are resources and evidence that you can point people to then great, just hold back from saying something is true when it is just what you think. You run the risk of either undermining the other person’s accountability for their actions or worse, replacing someone else’s wrong assumptions with your own.

So, hold back, but if the other person needs critical information to carry on thinking well then share it. But caveat what you share, don’t tell the person what to do.

Share the gift of creative thinking and decision-making

People are amazing. Our brains are incredible. Individuals – of all ages, educations and backgrounds – can think through their issues and come up with creative solutions of their own.

Even if we (the listener) could have come up with the same solution, empowering people to think through their challenges is much more powerful than just giving advice. When it comes to motivation and taking responsibility for a decision, the self-generated idea is best. Ask any manager, parent, or coach.

All we need to do to help others to think generatively is to provide the environment that releases this creative ability. Most importantly we must:

Give attention: listen and not interrupt

Ask incisive questions, to challenge assumptions

Provide information if it is needed. But only fact or experience, not advice or opinion.

Therefore, three key things, but if you do just one, then give people your undivided attention. This is the gift that will most inspire quality thinking. So, the next conversation you have today, do your very best to not interrupt. Just listen.

If you want the right answers you have to start with the right questions

About The Right Questions

The Right Questions is for people who want greater clarity, purpose and success. There is a wealth of resources to boost your effectiveness in achieving goals, your leadership of yourself and others, and your decision-making.

Wherever you are on your journey, I hope that you find information on this site to help you on the next leg of your quest. Even if that is just the inspiration to take one small step in the right direction, then that is a success. If you can take pleasure in learning and travelling as you go, then so much the better.

Need help navigating your journey to success?

I love to serve people, helping them unlock their potential, empowering them as leaders, and assisting them in achieving their goals. Please get in touch and let me know how I can support you!