In a previous post I talked about the Stockdale paradox and coming to terms with the brutal facts of our situation. That is the first step in addressing our fears.

When one looks at the reality of where we are it can be scary at first but as you take think everything through logically it can start to dispel those fears.  We need to ask ourselves, Ok, so what is the worst that can happen? If we analyse the problem in this way we can put things into perspective as often the worst thing is not that bad after all.  We can also start to plan and work out how would we would act if the worst case scenario was to happen.  In this way we can confront our fears.

Confronting fear

Confronting our fears helps us to avoid either living in a dream world or being crippled by limiting assumptions.

As the Japanese proverb says:

Vision without action is just a dream; action without vision is a nightmare.

We need a clear vision and we need to understand the assumptions we have that either enable or limit our actions.  Sometime negative assumptions are referred to as defeater beliefs but I think it is more helpful to think of them as assumptions as belief can have more fixed connotations and if negative, these thought patterns need to be challenged.

Challenging negative assumptions and defeater beliefs

For example, when trying to introduce a change in your professional life you may face fears about your job, your promotion prospects or your financial security.  This can trigger thoughts such as “I can’t do that – I would lose my job!”  This is reasonable enough, as losing one’s job can have major consequences, but make sure you think it through.  You may well find that:

1. If you are smart about how you do things then you probably don’t need to lose your job, or
2. That it would be worth the risk as you do not like your job anyway, or
3. You are pretty confident you could find a new and better job

There are plenty of other defeater beliefs that we could add in here such as:

1. “I won’t be able to pay my mortgage/student loan/credit card bill/monthly subscription to Sky Sport*”, or
2. “My boss/parents/family/imaginary friend won’t let me*”, or
3. “I will lose my friends/the good favour of my colleagues/the respect of my dog*”

(*delete as appropriate)

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Overcoming fear

Whatever fears pop into your mind when you look at your present and future situation make sure you capture them and interrogate them fully.  Assess each of them to see how real the perceived threat actually is. This way we can overcome fear.

We also need things in balance. Therefore when considering the ‘where’ question we keep one eye on the present and one on the future; one on the location, one on the vision.  The dream of the future needs to be compelling enough to draw us forward, no matter what the challenges are that we face, and we will be looking at this aspect of ‘where’ in a future post.

Which fears have you faced and overcome? Which would you like to overcome?

The SWOT analysis is one of the easiest and best-known decision-making tools. Leaders and managers employ this method frequently, but it can be used by anyone. Here is an explanation of what a SWOT analysis is, when to use one and how to write a good SWOT analysis. I have also included a worked example.

What is a SWOT Analysis?

SWOT is an acronym that stands for: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.

The SWOT analysis was developed by researchers at Stanford University, following a study in the 1960s. The study looked at various Fortune 500 companies and found that there was a difference between an organisation’s set strategic priorities and what was actually done. The study also revealed that the problem was not poor employees, but rather a lack of clear objectives. Therefore, SWOT was developed to give staff a clear understanding of a business or project.

Why is SWOT analysis effective?

The SWOT analysis is one of the most important and popular tools for decision making and strategy development. This is because of its:

• Simplicity – it is simple to learn and quick to use
• Clarity – it focusses on the key issues and aids clear communication
• Flexibility – it is applicable to individuals and organisations.

Having a coherent strategy is vital to any organisation, and equally, self-awareness is critical to personal effectiveness. But you need to be able to understand and communicate these things clearly. This is why SWOT analysis is such an important tool.

When should you use SWOT analysis?

The SWOT analysis is best used to:

• Improve situational awareness
• Develop strategy
• Identify and refine actions and goals
• Improve self-awareness (for an individual or team)
• Reflect upon a completed project or activity

The SWOT analysis was designed for organisations but it can equally be used by individuals. The SWOT process identifies crucial internal and external influences within a given situation. Therefore it gives us a snapshot of where we are and is excellent for situational analysis.

SWOT Template

The most common way to present and consider the SWOT approach is as a matrix. Here is an example template:

How do you do a SWOT analysis?

Do you want to know how to do a SWOT analysis? Don’t worry; it’s easy! Just follow these steps.

Step 1: Create a SWOT table:

The SWOT matrix is set out thus:

• Strengths and weaknesses are usually listed in the first row of the matrix; S and then W. These relate to internal factors.
• Opportunities and threats are external issues or circumstances. These create the second row; O and then T.
• In this layout, the first column, strengths and opportunities, signify the positive or helpful factors
• The second column, weaknesses and threats, are the potentially negative or harmful issues

SWOT Analysis Template Layout

Step 2: Brainstorm

Next, brainstorm as many different considerations as you can under each heading.

Here are some questions to help you:

Strengths (internal/personal):

• What are your/your team/organisation’s key skills, areas of experience or expertise?
• Can you define your USP (unique selling point/proposition)?
• What are your core values? What do you love, enjoy or prioritise?

Weaknesses (internal/personal):

• What do you not enjoy doing?
• Where have you failed or fallen behind the competition?
• What skill gaps do you have?

 Threats (external/circumstantial):

• What circumstances are most troubling you?
• Who is your major competition?
• Which challenge is the most important right now?
• What is the worst thing that could happen to you/your organisation?

Opportunities (external/circumstantial):

• How can you leverage your present situation?
• Who/what could most help you right now?
• How is change providing new openings?

Step 3: Prioritise

Now prioritise the lists; work out which are the top three to five things in each quadrant.

Whether you are using it as an individual or as part of a team, keep it simple and high-level; that is the systems greatest strength.

Step 4: Analyse

Look at each item in turn and consider the actions you could take. Here are some questions to help:

• How can you play to or maximise your strengths?
• What personal development goals, people and processes can help address your weaknesses?
• How can you exploit, expand or multiply the opportunities?
• What control measures do you need to put in place to limit the threats?

Now look for further relationships that you can identify across the columns, rows and diagonals.

Remember that weaknesses are often a reflection of strengths. For example, if you have a strength in that you are very good at coming up with lots of ideas, or you are a business with lots of products, a weakness might be that you find it hard to focus on just one of them.

Similarly, look at the flip side of external factors; you may find that threats can also provide opportunities. For example, a competitor could actually be a potential partner.

A failed project is always an opportunity for learning. From your analysis, how could you use that learning and pivot the idea, or re-purpose the team?

SWOT Analysis Example

Here is a short example using personal strengths and weaknesses:

SWOT Analysis Example

First looking at the strengths I recognise that I am quite task-focused. This means I am a good planner and show determination when seeing a project through. Moving across to the right quadrant I have noted a related weakness. Because I am task-focused that means I am quite future-orientated. The downside of this is that sometimes I can forget to be content in the moment or to celebrate the success of achieving something before moving on to the next goal.

Then looking at threats I have noted down that there is increased competition in my industry, with more people entering the market all the time. This threat does lead to an opportunity in the bottom left quadrant. I have the chance to refine my USP (unique selling proposition) in order to stand out from the crowd.

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Example analysis

It is more likely that I would list more items under each heading before continuing, but for the sake of simplicity let’s do a little analysis on what we already have.

How do I maximise my strengths and minimise the impact of my weaknesses? There are a few options I could consider under the ‘3 Ps’:

• Personal development: I could attend some training to improve my mindfulness and being ‘present’
• Person: find or employ someone else with a complementary skill set whose strengths/weaknesses are the opposite of my own
• Process: put some time in the diary to be more reflective on a daily basis and plan ahead to celebrate after achieving a goal

When considering the threats, I cannot control new people entering the market but I can work out how to best serve, and therefore retain, my existing clients. The opportunity of refining my USP becomes a strategic task, something that is going to require more work delving into why I do what I do, how that makes me different, who I can best serve and what extra benefit I can bring. The other items that I list in the strengths quadrant will help to develop that USP.

Making a plan from your SWOT Analysis

The ‘Right Questions’ format is an excellent way to examine this issue and so if this is something you want to pursue further then I recommend that you read my post on What are the Right Questions for Decision Making and Strategic Planning?

Whether you work on your own or in a large team, you will inevitably develop some processes to help you quickly make decisions about your work. The problem is that few people know how to develop a new business decision process or how to create a flow chart to illustrate what they want to happen.

Systems, procedures and processes (when working properly) help us to be efficient in achieving our goals. They can help us save time and money as well as assuring quality or reducing risks.

Many systems in businesses are things that will evolve organically – without much real planning – but there will also be times when something is not working well and you will need a more formal approach to improve an existing process, or to create a new one.

Casestudy: A Business Decision Process for a Hotel

Here I will demonstrate how you can use The Right Questions to analyse a procedure and develop a new system. We will also look at how to create a process flow chart.

To help explain the application of The Right Questions format I will use the example of a hotel case study. This is simplified but based on some actual work I did with a hotel business.

Where are we now and where do we need to be?

First, we look at our present situation. What is the present workflow, and what is the problem that has been identified that means a business decision process is needed?

Let use the hotel example to explore the question. The hotel receives new bookings on a daily basis and needs rooms prepared and cleaned every day too. Here the challenge is that the manager who takes the bookings is not the same one that manages the cleaners. But the cleaners need to know to prepare the rooms. Therefore there needs to be a communication process in place so that everyone knows what to do and when.

So that is the situation, how about the other side of the question: where does the hotel want to be in terms of service?

Ideally, all of the rooms should be cleaned and prepared so that guests feel welcome when they arrive. The team should be happy too because everyone knows what they are doing without having to ask.

What does success look like?

Next we need to define what we need to achieve. In the case of the hotel we have identified that:

• Customers need to feel that they are getting a good service
• Therefore they need clean rooms when they arrive

So, our mission statement or definition of success for this process could be:

‘Rooms need to be cleaned (on time and to the correct standard) in order that guests feel welcome.’

Why do we need the business decision process?

From the situation, we should be able to draw out some reasons behind the process. In the case of the hotel we can identify the following values that relate to what we are doing:

• Customer service – making sure the guests are being looked after
• Effective teamwork – people know what to do and when
• Efficient management – the managers do not need to be interrupted or intervene over little details

How does the process work?

Now we can look at the steps or activities that have to take place for the process to work. One effective way to look at these tasks is using a flow diagram or flowchart. In a flowchart, you can break down the process into key component parts. This can include any decisions that might affect the outcome.

Using the hotel example this might look like the flowchart on the right.

Now we have identified the current steps in the process we can analyse it better. Now we can see the workflow we can start to ask questions like: are there any steps missing? Are there any shortcuts that could be created? Where are the problems?

In terms of problems, processes usually fall down at the interfaces; the places where a job passes from one party to another. This is something we will come back to.

When do the steps of the process need to take place?

As well as establishing all the tasks that need to take place we also need to work out when they need to take place. Which tasks are time-critical? What are the deadlines?

Now we have the flowchart it is easier to work out the time needed for one single task. We can now create a timeline alongside it with any deadlines or decision points that are critical to achieving the aim.

In the hotel example, bookings and the preparation of rooms is a daily task. It is simple to work out how long each task takes but complications arise around other time issues.

Firstly bookings can come at any time. Secondly, the deadlines here are created by the arrival of guests. But some guests may arrive in the morning, others in the afternoon or evening. Thirdly, staff are not all on duty at the same time. So, there is no single moment in the day for communicating what needs doing.

Who is involved in the business decision process?

Each step should be assigned to a party. That person or team needs to own that task and make sure it is completed so that the next step can be completed by whoever takes over. Once again, breaking down the process into a flowchart makes the identification of these parties much easier. Responsibilities and expectations for each stakeholder can now be specified.

For the hotel example different colours have been used in the flowchart to highlight the different people involved in the process (Manager 1, Manger 2, the Cleaners and the Guests).

Which different ways can we achieve the aim?

There will be different ways to solve a problem so it is worthwhile taking some time to look at the options. Going through this process with the team, or whoever will be affected by the process, is an excellent way to engage people with the change. It will help them to understand the need for the change, take ownership of it and also help to generate new and creative ways to solve the problem.

By identifying the exact steps and interfaces where a process is not running smoothly it is possible to hone in and propose alternative solutions for each activity where things aren’t running smoothly.

In the case of the hotel’s workflow, it has been seen that sometimes Manager 2 is busy with another urgent matter and cannot create the list of rooms that need to be prepared. Equally, there can be a problem if Manager 2 is not around when cleaners have a question about preparing the rooms. The third challenge is that Manager 1 is not always informed when a room has been prepared ready for a guest.

Now the exact problems have been identified new solutions can be proposed. Is there a software solution that can inform everybody as soon as a booking has been made? Could there be a noticeboard or whiteboard in a common area where all parties can update the details about the rooms? Could roles be rearranged to make things run more smoothly?

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Experiment with business decision process options

Generally, there is no one right answer to making a business process work. It will often take the trialling of different options to find the one that works best. Also, processes need to change. The growth of a business or changes within a team could mean that a system needs to be reviewed.

One very important lesson is that processes, systems and structures within an organisation are just a means to an end; not the end in themselves. Large institutions often forget this and their processes can grow to become the driving force within the organisation. This should never be the case. Systems should always be checked, challenged and improved. They are only ever truly efficient if they are effective; they are only effective if they are helping to achieve the overall mission.

What resources do you need to achieve your goal? How do you estimate those resources for your plan? Which ways can you get the resources you need?

Quite often we limit ourselves and our plan to our present resources.  After all, it is reasonable to ask ‘Which holiday can I afford?’ before going and booking one.  Budgeting is good stewardship and I would certainly not recommend getting into debt on a whim.

But we will never be able to dream big or make macro leaps forward if we limit our goals to what we can achieve with the resources we have now.  It is better to first ask what we are passionate about doing, working out the resources required, and then thinking creatively of ways to get what we need.  That is why this question comes some way down the planning process.

The importance of logistics

An army needs logistics. A large portion of every military is concerned with delivering the right resources to the right people in the right places.  In fact, there are many more logisticians than infantry soldiers in the average army.  But the army does not exist for logistics. It has a mission to achieve. That aim is very rarely just to do with just moving men and equipment from one place to another.  Logistics is a large and essential part of achieving your aim. But it is there to support the mission, not to drive it.  History testifies to the fact that an army will beg, borrow and steal if necessary to get the job done if (or rather when) logistics fail.  You can still achieve your aim when resources are difficult to come by if you remain focussed; as the United States Marine Corps would say: you just need to ‘improvise, adapt and overcome!’

The right motivation is key

This is because there are very few times when finances and resources are fixed.  A compelling vision inspires us to innovate and save. It motivates us to earn and raise the funding that we need and find the tools to get the job done.

Why is it that many people who win the lottery often struggle. Why do they end up having spent their money within a few years?  The gambling industry sells winning as the dream; it does not provide a vision for what comes beyond that.  Many people who win do not have a clear idea of what they want to do with the money. They might take a nice holiday and pay off the mortgage but that is not a grand vision. Anyway, these things can be done without playing the lottery or the roulette wheel.

People who make (and keep) large amounts of money use it productively. Resources that continue to grow are usually driven by a vision beyond that of just making cash.  Bill Gates, the richest man in the world for most of the last decade, was not motivated primarily by money.  When he started Microsoft with Paul Allen they had a vision of a computer in every home. This dream, of how computing could transform the world, drove Microsoft. It became the most successful software business in the world and made Bill Gates a multi-billionaire.

Money, Manpower and Materiel

So we start with the dream and then work out what we need to make it a reality.  When we need to make something happen it generally comes down to the three ‘M’s:

• Money
• Manning
• Materiel

Cash, workers and equipment are all important but it is usually the first element, the money, which drives others; so this is the primary consideration here (we will look at the people issue more under the Who question).

Estimating the cost

When we have our dream or our goal, we can start to put a cost against it.  If it is hard to assess the cost for a whole goal we can break it down, as we have done previously, and cost each constituent task or step.

Remember to put a cost against the time you invest in achieving the goal.  When doing something yourself you can feel you are getting it done for free but that is not actually true.  Our time is worth something, even if it is just the opportunity-cost of not being able to do something else while we are engaged with a task we have decided upon.

Often it will turn out cheaper to pay someone else to do a task that can be delegated as this leaves you just the things that no-one else can do and you will achieve your goal all the sooner.  We will look at delegation some more under the ‘Who’, but having broken down tasks and now putting costs to them will help you make decisions on the team you might need.

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Alternative funding

Once you have estimated a cost for each individual task you will get an idea of the budget for the whole project.  Once this has been done you can start to think creatively about how to reduce the costs. Or you can seek further resources in more inventive ways (and no I am not talking about stealing here!).

For example, instead of paying for a qualified professional, could you get someone to do the work voluntarily? Perhaps you could offer them experience as an intern? If someone is still in training or education they may value the experience more than pay.  Alternatively, think about what service or product you might be able to offer someone in return. Bartering is as old as trade itself but sometimes people forget it. I have used this sort of transaction in building my business. For example I have coached people in return for help with my website.

I used this method when I employed someone to develop my website. They worked on the website in return provided some coaching to help them further their career. It was an easy win for both of us, and no cash changed hands.

Fuel the dream

Considering the resources we need and how we are going to get them is an important aspect of how we make our dreams real.  An idea becomes a lot more tangible as we think about and assess the tools and materials we need for the job. It can take some time, and may not be as liberating as some of the big picture thinking, but it is important so stick with it!

“First, have a definite, clear practical ideal; a goal, an objective. Second, have the necessary means to achieve your ends; wisdom, money, materials, and methods. Third, adjust all your means to that end.” Aristotle

Do you relate more to Capt Kirk or Mr Spock from Star Trek? What does that say about your leadership and decision-making?

With the latest runner from the Star Trek stable dashing onto the screens (Star Trek Into Darkness) we are once again exposed to a famous universe and a much-loved movie relationship; that of Captain Kirk and Mr Spock. As well as providing a lot of fun, Star Trek ventures provide an opportunity to reflect upon current affairs from a different angle. They also make us think about what makes us human as well as how we make choices.

Science fiction frees us to think differently

The great thing about good science fiction is that it encourages divergent thinking. By creating alternative realities, that do not conform to the rules we live by, we are able to think differently. We can also address sensitive subjects by removing them from our present reality. When done well, science fiction brings a philosophical distance where we can look at modern-day issues through a different lens. In that way, we can challenge our assumptions. We can visit the future and think about the advantages and disadvantages of scientific advances. Whether that is technological development, for example in ‘I, Robot’, or mind-altering drugs such as in ‘A Scanner Darkly’. We can consider what life might be like if history had turned out differently and explore parallel universes as done in ‘Watchman’.

The original Star Trek series was always very much about social commentary. It looked at the big questions such as imperialism, globalisation, and racism and addressed them while trying to give a glimpse of a better future. The films took up this mantle and the latest outing explores issues such as terrorism. Although, this conversation takes place on a rollercoaster ride of action and can be lost amid the explosions!

Reason versus emotion

But as well as these political and social issues there is an interesting psychological study at the heart of the Star Trek universe. This is reflected in the characters of Captain James T. Kirk and Mr Spock. Captain Kirk is a hotheaded passionate leader who follows his heart and his gut. His approach to diplomatic liaisons or tricky tactical situations is to make quick decisions and if in doubt, to punch his way out of a situation. Mr Spock is the cold face of reason and logic; the counterpoint to Kirk in almost every way. The tension of the relationship poses questions such as who is right? Who makes the best decisions? Who is the best leader?

In some ways, the assumption or conclusion (whichever way you look at it) in the Star Trek universe is that to be truly logical is somewhat alien. In comedy terms, Spock is the ultimate straight man. The humour in Star Trek is frequently displayed in Spock’s inability to think something is funny or to be engaged emotionally. Kirk on the other hand shows us that to be human is to be passionate. He can be somewhat irrational but that this human trait can be a strength as much as a weakness. If leaders have no passion – and therefore no sense of conviction behind their actions – then do we value their decisions? After all, the choices we tend to respect (if we are affected by the decision) are ones that elevate people. And we have to be emotional, we have to care, to make those sorts of choices.

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An important lesson

So the Star Trek example of Kirk and Spock is something we should all remember. Logic is very important but it is our emotions that differentiate us as human. Our motivation, values and intuition are critical parts of our decision-making; ones that can be an advantage if they are understood and held in balance. This is true even if we are applying a logical decision-making process; we can never separate ourselves from our passions.

Once people understand their roles they next need to know how they interact with other people. Everyone needs to be clear about the lines of communication and decision-making authority. Authority, accountability, reporting and other leadership and management functions all need to be reflected in the organisational structure.

The structure of a team, organisation or company can take many forms. For example, ‘flat’, ‘hierarchical’, or ‘matrix’ are all descriptions of structures. But, there is no single correct structure for every team or circumstance.  The type of structure that a team should employ depends on the nature of the task and the nature of the people within the team.

Take a fresh look at what organisational structure you need

You may need to start with a blank piece of paper. Ask some questions related to your task, team and the individuals in that team. For example:

• Who needs to communicate with whom to make effective decisions?
• Which people have to work closely together to fulfil their responsibilities?
• How are individuals kept accountable for what they are doing?
• Who needs to be empowered to make decisions?
• Who is responsible for their management and supporting their personal development?
• What things need to happen for your team to be able to achieve its goal?
• Does your present structure support that aim?

The larger the organisation the harder it is to answer all these questions in one go. So, you can start by looking at the individual team level first. Work out how they need to function, and then look at how each team needs to operate and interact.

It might be helpful to do this graphically. One method I find helpful is using names on post-it notes, arranged on a whiteboard so that I can experiment. In this way, you can see how people are best grouped. You can add the different decision and communication lines that are needed in coloured pens and see what works. Get the team involved in the process too. They are likely to have the most detail about how they need to work effectively. It can be a lively team-building exercise in itself!

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Form should follow function

A structure should support communication and decision-making in the most effective way possible. You need to be organised so that you can achieve the specific goal your team is pursuing. This means that the structure is likely to need to change over time.  Organisational growth, replacement staff, new goals or different stages within a project can all spell a need for a change in structure.  Don’t shy away from moving things around. But there is a delicate balance to achieve. Too much change can cause instability and will make team members anxious. Too little change, on the other hand, will hamper your progress. In my experience, small businesses and start-ups have to watch out more for the former, while large institutions have to be aware of the latter.

On some tasks, it may be that the roles within a team need to change within the course of a day.  That is particularly true within smaller organisations where people have to share more responsibilities. If people are comfortable with their roles, and the responsibilities of others, then they can deal with this change. Very strict, traditional, hierarchical structures can make this sort of fluidity a lot harder.

Most teams won’t have to deal with this speed of change all the time. But the lesson is – as with every other tool in planning – to remain flexible.  And remember, the structure is not the end in itself: it is just a tool to achieve our end. Achieving our dream or mission is the most important thing. So, if our structure is hindering us then we need to adapt it and improve it.

We do not always think in terms of risk but there is risk in every decision we make. The risk is always balanced against the opportunity to some degree or another. Risk assessment, risk management and risk strategies are processes we can add to our decision-making process. We need some way to consider and manage risk. This is because our decisions and planning are continually influenced by our attitude to risk.

“Great deeds are usually wrought at great risks.”  Herodotus

High anxiety

One summer I was mountaineering in the French Alps with a group of friends.  We had just spent a few days bagging some routes when someone had the idea of tackling a nearby climb. It was not one we originally planned to do as it was a higher grade than we were generally comfortable with.

That season there had been very little snow and the ridges were more exposed and icy than usual. So, as this route was following a ridge, I argued that it would be in bad condition. It was likely to be even harder than the guidebook suggested.  The weather was also set to change for the worse, so as far as I could see, the risks outweighed the opportunity.

I thought my logic was sound but the person who had proposed the climb was very persuasive. He managed to get the other two members of the group to agree with him. They wanted to give the climb a go.  It was three against one, and I knew they needed four people to attempt the route. Therefore the pressure was on for me to accept the majority decision. But I genuinely believed it was not a safe option. It was a tough conversation. I then made myself very unpopular when I refused to do the climb. It was a stand-off. They needed a fourth climber and therefore all we could do as a group was head back down the valley.

A good call

Fortunately for them, the other three found another willing climber. I meanwhile, by now feeling somewhat sheepish, decided to go trekking for a couple of days. As I was on my own I decided to stay below the snow line and try and avoid the bad weather.

I spent most of the next few days feeling guilty about being stubborn but when I returned I found that my decision had been justified.  The weather had deteriorated and the route proved to be in poor condition, as I had predicted.  After a few hours of struggling in dangerous conditions, my old climbing partners were forced to make an emergency descent. The deteriorating weather meant they also had to make a hasty retreat back down the valley.

It turned out that they were the lucky ones; that weekend ten people lost their lives in the Mont Blanc area as high winds whipped people off icy ridges.

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Risk affects our decision making

Life is full of decisions and intuitively we are assessing risks all the time, even if they are not as obvious as the ones in the previous example.  As we pursue our dreams we will be frequently faced with various options of ways to achieve our aims.  In order to navigate our course, we have to assess the factors, consider the risks, and make decisions as to the best way to go.  Sometimes to help answer the question ‘which way should I go?’ it is prudent to consider ‘which way shouldn’t I go?’ and this particular question is all about risk.

If a venture is suddenly deemed too risky, it is the surest thing that will stop us from acting; no matter how attractive the option first seemed. Therefore, risks need to be identified, assessed, mitigated and managed, so that we are in the best possible place to make our decisions.

Capacity for risk varies between people and situations so it is important to remember that this is an ongoing process of identification and management.  At the same time, we don’t want to become defensive, timid or risk-averse. Achieving bold visions means taking risks; we just need to make sure we have counted the cost before we commit ourselves.

When to consider risk

In The Right Questions Framework, we consider risk when we look at options. This comes under the Which question.

You don’t want to start a venture by looking at risk. If you do, the problems could easily become paralysed before you even start.  But, if you plan without considering the risk, you could quickly become disillusioned or make a serious mistake that could be hard to recover from.  Therefore it is at the point when one has a clear idea of what we need to achieve, and are considering different options to achieve that goal, that we look at risks.

“Take calculated risks.  That is quite different from being rash.”  General George S Patton

How to manage risk

Unnecessary risks can be avoided by careful planning and this process is part of your risk management process.  Your approach to risk – which risks you tolerate and those you treat – becomes your risk management strategy.

This exercise is a helpful aid to decision-making, but remember, that one should never make a decision out of fear.  Some risks will be big – you just need to know whether that danger is acceptable to achieve your aim.  Effective risk management helps us to achieve our mission, but with the risks considered and reduced as much as possible, not at the exclusion of risk entirely.  Remember, it is more important to do the right thing than the safe thing.

As you go into the process of identifying and evaluating the risks I recommend, that if you are part of a larger team, that you go through the following exercise first as an individual and then as a collective. This avoids group-think and other related biases.

Once you all have some ideas you are likely to find that as a team you will have a healthy (frequently robust) discussion about how to categorise risks. This is due to people’s different viewpoints; do not worry, this is a productive process. Diversity of thought will help you all evaluate risks more effectively and help you learn more about how the team thinks and operates. This inclusive process will also allow people to express any fears, find solutions and commit to the final plan.

Risk Management Process

Here is a simple risk process. If you follow this exercise you will be able to identify the key risks you face and create a basic risk management strategy:

• Play devil’s advocate for a moment: give yourself 5 minutes to try and think of as many things as you can that could put a stop to your venture and list all these threats.
• On a scale of 1 to 5 give each risk a score of how probable it is to occur (5 being the most likely).
• Now do something similar, scoring 1 to 5 for the severity of the impact of each of the risks.  In this case, a ‘1’ might be a minor inconvenience whereas a ‘5’ would be a show-stopper.
• For each risk multiply the probability score and the impact score so you get a score of 1-25 for each risk.  You can now rank all the risks in a table.
• Start at the top with the biggest risks and think about how you can avoid, prevent, limit the damage or otherwise manage the risk.  This is called mitigation.  Write down the plan for each risk and after the mitigation measures have been applied score the risk again for likelihood and impact to see how it has improved and whether it is acceptable to you (and/or your team).
• Now consider whether the opportunities outweigh the risks for the course of action you have chosen. If you are unsure, you can go back and look at the risks in more detail for another course of action that you generated previously.
• Once you have identified the most important risks make someone responsible for the management of each risk. They do not carry all the risk (or blame if it goes wrong) but they do have responsibility for tracking the risk on behalf of the team.

Record and review your risks

There are lots of ways you can record the information you get from this process. Most businesses have spreadsheets to capture the key operational or project risks. Find what works for you but my advice is to keep it simple. If the document is too big and complicated people won’t read it.

The other thing is to keep it up to date. Make sure you review the risks on a regular basis. The situation changes; new risks emerge, other risks fade. Make sure you are tracking them.

But don’t get obsessed or paralysed by risk. After all, who dares wins!

Colonel John Boyd, a strategist with the USAF was a fighter pilot who studied decision-making in dogfights. He actually worked at the ‘Top Gun’ school of Tom Cruise fame. He proposed that as a situation evolves we have to observe the changes and orient ourselves to new information. We can then decide on the best course and take action. In other words, decisions are made in a recurring loop of:

• Observe,
• Orient,
• Decide and
• Act.

This is the OODA loop.

Sometimes this process is relatively slow and objective and we can pause to consider what we do. At other times the information and situation may be changing so fast that things become subjective. Then we have to work on instinct. This relates to the System 1 (fast) and System 2 (slow) thinking popularised by Daniel Kahneman.

Because the cycle takes place, no matter how fast the situation is unfolding, the specifics of how we orientate ourselves is of key importance.  As Boyd notes:

“The second O, orientation – as the repository of our genetic heritage, cultural tradition, and previous experiences – is the most important part of the O-O-D-A loop since it shapes the way we observe, the way we decide, the way we act.”

It stands to reason that as we try and orientate ourselves it is useful to have others providing input. This is because external insight broadens the scope of the ‘repository’ of genetics, culture and experience. So, if time allows, get more quality data from others. When there is no time it is the depth of experience of the person making the decision that really counts. This allows for good intuitive decision-making (see Blink by Malcolm Gladwell).

How to apply the OODA loop

Boyd developed his ideas in a military context. His aim was to help speed up the decision cycle of USAF pilots so that they could get inside the enemy’s decision cycle.  To win a dogfight a pilot needs to make better and faster decisions than the adversary. Also, maintaining the initiative creates opportunities that can be further exploited.  The same thinking is applied to business and outsmarting the competition in the marketplace.

At first, this may not seem to have a direct application to our situation. But, in our case, the enemy is often ourselves. Equally, it could be our situation or any other challenge we face. We often do not make time to assess a situation and therefore we can fail to orientate ourselves properly. It follows that we then become reactive rather than proactive in response to our circumstances.

A foundation for decision-making

The great thing about this model is how simple it is. Boyd identified the bare essential elements of decision-making. Therefore, the OODA loop is really useful in helping us understand other decision-making tools and frameworks.

‘The Right Questions’ framework is designed in the same way. It follows the same simple cycle but expands the process so that it can be easily used for strategic planning as well as quick decision making.

I was just savouring a coffee from my newly purchased coffee maker when a wide-eyed and out of breath soldier stumbled into my makeshift office. My cup was poised in my hand – the aroma was fantastic – and the thought of drinking it was more alluring than anything I could imagine that this solider might interrupt me with. This had better be good, I thought.

“Sir! The guards think there is a bomb at the gates to the camp!”

I put the cup down; coffee time was over.

How do you make important decisions?

Let’s pause the story for a moment so I can ask you a question:

What is the most important decision you have ever made?

The most important decisions are generally not the critical, life threatening type. More likely it was choosing your school, selecting your career, buying a house, or committing to your life partner. How did you make that decision? Was it the right decision? (If you are sitting next to your spouse don’t feel you need to answer that last one just now).

As well as those big life decisions, how about the myriad of smaller decisions we have to make every day. What about those? What process (if any) did you use to make your choice? Every day we are all expected to make hundreds, if not thousands, of decisions. Research has shown we probably make more than 200 decisions a day relating to food alone (Wansink, Sobal). Yet, weirdly, despite all these decisions, very few people ever receive formal training in decision making.

Crawl, walk, run

For me it’s a bit like running.

Everyone just expects people to know how to run. For those of us blessed with full health and mobility it is a natural progression. We crawl, we walk, we run. Simple right?

But if you really want to improve your running you need to train. It was not until I started running ultra-marathons that I really started taking my running training seriously. As I did, I become more aware of the technical aspects of running such as breathing, foot fall, cadence and pace. It was only then, when I broke down my technique, I realized that I had been doing so many things wrong for so many years.

Such is the way with decision making. If you want to get better at making decisions you need to practice, but you must also understand some of the fundamentals of how choices are made.

The science and art of decision making

I started out my career as a Bomb Disposal Officer in the Army. From there I have gone on to lead in various contexts, often in some of the most challenging and hostile environments on the planet. This knowledge and experience, coupled with my love of learning, has led me to develop decision making tools that I teach, particularly to the leaders that I coach.

This is because a large part of being a leader is about making decisions. Effective leadership is dependent upon making good decisions.

The foundation of all my work is asking questions. Questions unlock understanding and understanding is a foundation of good decision making. One of my favourite quotes by Francis Bacon illustrates this:

“A prudent question is one half of wisdom.”

Francis Bacon

So, what are the right questions? This is a question I have been exploring for my whole career. I want to share with you some of the insights I have discovered on this journey over the past 20 years. My hope is that after reading this I can impart a small gift, a simple tool, to help you. Something that you need never forget and can assist you in your future choices and plans. My promise to you is a guarantee that you will be able to remember the framework. And that is because you already know it. All I am going to do is help you apply that framework.

Sound good?

Why do we need to ask the right questions?

Good questions are essential if we want to get the right information.

If we don’t ask the right questions, we won’t get the answers we need. Without the necessary information, we won’t be able to make good decisions. If we don’t make good decisions, we can lose our direction, fail in our leadership, and can end up ineffective, unhappy or worse.

As I mentioned previously, I found out how important questions are early on in my career as a Bomb Disposal Officer.

Nasty surprises

As I put my coffee down and walked out of the office, I asked my first question:

“What do you mean by a bomb?”

“There is a suspicious package, the guards think it could be a bomb.” was the reply.

It was Bosnia in 2001, and I was a young Lieutenant in the Royal Engineers leading the Explosive Ordnance Disposal (bomb disposal) team in the local region. The conflict in Bosnia had ended some time ago and we were there primarily to clear up the mess that a war leaves behind, namely the mines, mortar bombs and other explosives that littered the countryside. But in the post 9/11 world, the threat of terrorist attack was at the forefront of people’s minds. In this context, an unexplained bag, right up against the front gates of a military camp, was screaming out ‘IED!’ (Improvised Explosive Device) and required immediate and serious attention.

Red wire or blue wire?

Therefore, I went to take control of the scene and do an initial threat assessment. I met the guard commander and asked him some questions such as:

Where exactly was the package?

What did it look like?

Who had seen it first?

When had it been found?

Why was it suspicious?

How had it got there?

Very quickly a picture emerged that put my mind at ease. One of the guards had seen an old and infirm lady dropping off the parcel. Upon questioning the local interpreters, I found out that this lady was well known to them (as she was a little eccentric) and that she had made similar deliveries before. It was more than likely that this was just a gift for the soldiers. A short trip to visit the lady at her house confirmed that yes, she had just dropped off some biscuits for the troops. It just so happened that she thought that dropping off a ‘surprise’ in an unmarked bag, unannounced, at the front gate to a military base was a good thing to do!

After establishing all of this I was able to go back, safely deal with the package (no, I didn’t eat or blow up the biscuits), give the all-clear and return the security levels to normal. I thanked the lady for the kind thought and gift but asked her to refrain from such ‘surprise’ generosity in the future.

So, the right question was not ‘do we cut the red or the blue wire?’ In fact, the right questions were not technical ones at all.

The importance of questions

When you consider your life is under threat then it is very important to properly assess a situation. You have to overcome the ‘fight or flight’ response and use the decision space – the gap between stimulus and response – to work out what to do. In the time given you have to make an assessment. Asking the right questions and getting the right answers is essential before launching into action.

The military, the emergency services and medical services know this and train personnel in decision making. By employing decision making processes and then applying these first in exercises and in real-life situations, personnel can build up experience and become expert decision-makers. A good methodology coupled with experience and can help to make quick, effective decisions even in high-risk environments (Klein).

Outside of careers that deal with life-threatening situations very few people get training in asking questions and making decisions. This is despite the fact that numerous studies show that these competencies are essential to employers, particularly for leaders and managers (Harrell, Barbato). The need for decision making in leaders is often expressed in other terms such as:

• The need for analysing and overcoming problems (Zenger, Folkman)
• Taking the initiative (Maxwell)
• Setting direction and goals (Giles)
• Prioritisation (Tracy)
• Or having a clear vision and strategy (Kotter)

But all these things are related to, or dependent upon, good decision making.

Do we need decision making tools?

We generally take decision making for granted. After all, we each make thousands of choices every day, some conscious, some unconscious, and rarely need to apply more than our intuition to a decision. But there is a problem. Research, particularly by influential figures such as Daniel Kahneman, has demonstrated that our intuition is amazing, but it has limits.

Therefore, understanding decision making and how to make good decisions is critical to all of us, and good decision making starts with good questions. After all, as John Dewey says:

“A problem well put is half solved.”

John Dewey

The problem with many processes and tools, including those used for decision making, is that they are often non-intuitive and hard to remember. That is why we should start with what we already know and structures that are already embedded.

Start with the questions you already know

When I was training as a Bomb Disposal Officer we were taught a question technique called the ‘Five Ws’ which we used when we approached an incident. The ‘Five Ws’ is an interrogative style employed primarily by journalists and police officers, but it is a framework that can be used by anyone to make an appreciation of a given situation.

The Five Ws are:

• What?
• Where?
• When?
• Who?
• Why?

To this list ‘how?’ is also usually added. This ‘5Ws and an H’ provides an easy to remember checklist that is a useful starting point towards building a quick but rounded picture of a situation.

The idea is that by using the 5 Ws to construct open questions you are more likely to get factual answers and more information while avoiding presuppositions. This is in contrast to closed questions, that have just yes or no answers, or leading questions that push people down a certain line of thinking.

Using interrogatives

As I have done further research into question technique and applied the principles in my work, I have found that it is also useful to add another ‘W’ – that of ‘which?’ – to the list. The ‘which?’ question covers the concept of selection or choice and therefore helps to inspire options and to consider risk. This helps to complete the decision-making cycle, particularly when we are planning for the future, not just examining an event that has already happened.

This makes seven questions in a total and creates an easily remembered framework. It’s easy to recall as its based upon the most common interrogative words that we use in English. The methodology easily translates into other languages too. Seven is also a handy number as we find it harder to recall lists above seven or eight items (Buzan).

The application of the interrogatives provides a holistic approach to analysing a situation and making an informed decision. The use and application of these seven open questions is a technique I have dubbed ‘The Right Questions’, inspired by the question I had started with.

Applying The Right Questions

Simplicity is a large part of the system’s strength. But, as with any tool or model, the technique is only as good as its application and it is this application of the questions that we will start to look at here.

My experience of working as a coach and consultant has taught me that The Right Questions approach can be applied to everything from life direction and personal vision, to corporate strategy and organisational change.

The table below outlines the purpose and application of each interrogative word in sequence:

Interrogative	Use	Application
Why	Reason	Values, principles, priorities, passions
Where	Place	Situation (past and present), vision
What	Thing	Mission, end-state, success
Which	Selection	Options, courses of action, risks, reflection
How	Manner	Plan, route, tasks, resources
Who	Person	Self, team, network, relationships
When	Time	Timing, programming, prioritisation

When you learn how to apply the system it is very flexible. My starting point when faced with a challenge – whether it is developing a business case, starting a project, or writing an article – will be to write down the seven Right Questions (often as a mind-map) and start to brainstorm and explore my thoughts under each heading.

After trying this you can also experiment with using the system as a decision-making cycle. My experience over the years has shown that most effective order is as follows:

I agree with Simon Sinek that we should ‘Start with Why’ when approaching any problem. Asking the ‘where’ and ‘what’ questions then help to frame the problem before moving on to the ‘how’, ‘when’ and ‘who’ elements that are most helpful in developing a plan.

The ‘which’ question then serves as an inflection point between these two loops. Asking the which question helps to identify different courses of actions that can be considered in the planning loop. It may also highlight risks and assumptions that send us back to the framing questions once again.

Putting decision making theory into practice

“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler.”

Albert Einstein

Having just read this last section you may be thinking that the process no longer seems so simple. Don’t worry! The best thing to do now is immediately put the basics of the process into practice.

Start with something easy. What do you have to do today? Take any one task or decision – be that as simple as composing an email, planning a party or even just going to the shops – and start by writing down the seven interrogative questions. Use these to make sure you understand why you need to achieve the task and then how you are going to do it. I promise it will help!

Done? Congratulations! You have taken the first step to becoming better at making decisions.

Now, as with the running analogy, you need to train regularly. Commit to experimenting with method, perhaps for one task every day for the next week. Once you have used it a couple of times try and apply it to a more complicated issue or more important decision.

If you struggle don’t be disheartened. You don’t go from the couch to running marathons in one week. Instead, enjoy the learning journey. If this has piqued your interest and you want to find out more then, explore some of the links above, or references listed below, in order to delve into more detail.

Happy decision-making!

If you would like access to some bonus content and get updates then please do sign up to my email list.

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References:

Buzan, T (2010) Use Your Head, London: BBC

Giles, S (2016) The Most Important Leadership Competencies, According to Leaders Around the World, Harvard Business Review

Harrell, M and Barato, L (2018) Great Managers Still Matter: The Evolution of Google’s Project Oxygen, Google/Re:work

Kahneman, D (2011) Thinking Fast and Slow, New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Klein, G (1998) Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press

Kotter, J P (2012) Leading Change, Brighton: Harvard Business Review Press

Maxwell, J C (2007) The 21 Indispensable Qualities of a Leader, Nashville: Thomas Nelson

Sinek, S (2009) Start With Why, London: Penguin Books

Tracy, B (2010) How the Best Leaders Lead, New York: American Management Association

Wansink, B; Sobal, J (2007) Mindless Eating: The 200 Daily Food Decisions We Overlook, Environment and Behaviour, 39:1, 106-23

“Mindless Eating: The 200 Daily Food

Decisions We Overlook,” Environment and Behavior, 39:1 (January), 106-23

Zenger, J and Folkman, J (2014) The Skills Leaders Need at Every Level, Harvard Business Review

Why do you need a problem typology model or framework such as Cynefin? Well, have you ever had a problem that, in trying to solve it, you have made it worse?

You thought you could fix that device, but it stayed broken. Or you stepped into an argument when the resolution seemed obvious, but your intervention just created further hostility. Or perhaps you were a bit lost, and you thought you had found a route out, but then things got worse. We have all been there, right?

When trying to solve problems we make things worse when we don’t properly understand the problem in the first place. Therefore, one critical step in decision-making is classifying the type of problem that you are trying to solve. This is important as – if you fail to categorise the nature of your challenge – you could end up applying the wrong solution or approach. This might not only fail to solve the issue, but it could also make it worse.

When things go wrong

“It’s the wrong trousers Gromit, and they’ve gone wrong!”

Wallace and Gromit

I got to see this happen on an organisational level when I was asked to help a large local government in the UK. The institution was falling into disorder but no one within the organisation could agree on why. The lower-level managers thought it was a simple problem. They knew how to deliver services; it was just that the demand had gone up and finances had gone down. All they thought they needed was more money. This mindset was pushing the institution further towards the brink of chaos and a crisis for the whole organisation.

The high-level management thought it was a complicated issue, hence bringing in consultant ‘experts’ such as me to analyse and resolve the problem. They assumed that efficiency was the biggest issue and, therefore, wanted to focus (almost exclusively) on finance. We, the outsiders, could see that it was a complex challenge. The situation was changing rapidly and was not going to reverse; the managers at all levels were looking at the problem in the wrong way. So, we introduced models to help change the way everyone – at all levels – viewed the issues and encouraged broad engagement to come up with creative solutions. It was not an easy process, but identifying the nature of the problem was the first step.

Understanding complexity and problem typology

The process of identifying the problem typology is the sphere of complexity science. Understanding complexity is a growing academic field that has important implications for leadership and decision-making.

Complexity is, well, complex, but fortunately, some models and frameworks bring the concepts of complexity, leadership and choice together; to help us understand obstacles and assist in choices.

As a leader, I regularly use Keith Grint’s model that classifies problems as either tame, critical or wicked. Understanding the problem then informs the method of influence to use, be that managing tame problems, providing command for critical issues or leadership for wicked issues.

This idea of matching leadership approaches to types of problems is not confined to the Grint model. There is another model that I have also found very insightful, particularly for understanding complex challenges, which is the Cynefin framework.

“Circumstances change, however, and as they become more complex, the simplifications can fail. Good leadership is not a one-size-fits-all proposition.”

Snowden and Boone

The Cynefin framework

This other favoured model is the Cynefin framework. It was created by Dave Snowden and further developed in partnership with Mary E. Boone. The word Cynefin comes from the Welsh language and alludes to a sense of place. In other words, we need a sense of place to understand our challenges.

The framework gained acclaim and awards, particularly after the publication of A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making, in the Harvard Business Review. It has been adopted and used not only by corporations but by governments, for example by the US government in counterterrorism and the National Health Service in the UK.

This model is slightly more complex than Grint’s but the framework allows deep thought into both the classification of problems and how problems can evolve (or crash) from one domain into another, depending on how we address them.

The framework is based upon classifying the complexity of issues into the following four types of problems and five domains:

• Clear
• Complicated
• Complex
• Chaotic
• Disorder (uncategorised problems)

The Cynefin Framework – wikicommons

Clear problems

The clear domain (also known as either the simple or obvious domain) refers to problems that have known solutions. Here, when it comes to information and assumptions we are in the realm of “known knowns”. Therefore, we identify (sense), categorise, and then respond to these problems with known solutions. Use best practice when the cause-and-effect relationships are obvious.

Clear problems are generally heavily process-driven. The process is clear, measurable, and therefore relatively simple to manage. Examples of these clear problems could be applying for a personal loan or mortgage or manufacturing a common item on a production line. When I worked in the construction industry, most house-building fell into this category. It is easy to get pre-made plans for homes.

The danger with clear problems is complacency. When using a known solution, it is easy to fall into that habit and apply the same practice again and again, but then fail to notice how the situation is changing. If the situation changes too much, then applying the old solution could push the problem into disorder or the chaotic realm. This was what was happening with the local government I mentioned earlier.

This can also happen when people assume a problem has a clear solution, but the known knowns turn out to be wrong assumptions. This sort of mistake is covered in How to Identify and Disarm Wrong Assumptions.

Complicated problems

Complicated problems are the domain of experts. Here the “known unknowns” are sensed but then need to be analysed before any response, because there may be multiple solutions to the given challenge. These solutions, if successful, may then go on to become best practices, and the problem moves from the complicated realm to the clear.

“Complicated” is the realm where the professionals – such as lawyers, engineers, and doctors – earn their living. A deep knowledge of first principles, coupled with the proper experience, allows specialists to find options and solutions. Again, reflecting on my experience as an engineer, house-building per-se was a simple problem but developing new sustainable construction techniques – for example reducing the amount of concrete and steel we rely upon – is a complicated problem.

The danger in this realm is that experts can be blinkered, which can stifle novel approaches. For good solutions, there should be an environment that challenges existing thinking and encourages new ideas, through a diversity of people and inputs.

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Complex problems

Complex problems exist in environments that are constantly changing, with multiple factors at play. Here we are in the realm of “unknown unknowns” as things are in flux and there are just too many things to identify or measure. These problems can also be of the “wicked” variety where problems may need least worst solutions as there are no “good” ones.

The complex realm is the land of emergent ideas. Problems in this space require true creativity. Many entrepreneurs and start-ups naturally fall into this sphere, but even large businesses and institutions find themselves in this space due to the increasingly congested, connected and fast-changing world we live in.

Traditional top-down, command and control, management styles fall short in complex situations. Complex problems require a more experimental approach. The problem needs to be probed, then sensed to develop a new response.

New management techniques have emerged to deal with these complex situations. Eric Ries (author of The Lean Start-up) popularised the idea of developing a minimum viable product as the basis for experimentation. Agile project management has also taken over from traditional project management to address fast-changing situations.

Chaotic problems

In chaotic situations, there is no order and therefore no obvious cause and effect relationships. Here a sense of order needs to be imposed and therefore a leader needs to act carefully but decisively. These situations are like the “critical” issues of the Grint model that require a more directive, command leadership approach.

Large crises fall into the chaotic realm, such as the events of September 11, 2001. On a smaller scale, I have experienced these sorts of emergencies while on operations or even when alpine climbing. Here the approach required is to act first, then sense how things change, and then respond with appropriate next steps to lead out of the crisis.

Disorder

The realm of disorder represents the space where it is unclear where a problem exists. If you feel completely lost, then you are likely to be in this realm! Here it is likely that the problem has not been properly understood or that the challenge has aspects that sit in multiple domains.

So, the best approach when facing disorder is to gather data to better understand the issue and then break down the problem into constituent parts so that each element can be dealt with in its relevant domain.

A summary of how to apply the Cynefin framework

The world is more irrational and unpredictable than we would like to admit. It is therefore vital that we properly identify the nature of the problems we face to take the right approach to solve them. This is particularly important for leaders who are responsible for spotting challenges and then flexing their decision-making approach and management style.

Models can help us do just that and the Cynefin framework shows us that:

• When the problem is clear and the solution known, find and apply best practices
• If the issue is complicated, then expertise can find solutions from first principles
• When the environment is complex, emergent ideas can be found through experimentation
• In chaotic situations, a rapid response is needed to establish some order
• When there is disorder, break down the problem further to assign each part to the realms listed above.

And remember:

“Expect problems and eat them for breakfast.”  – Alfred A. Montapert