The 5th October 2019 marked eight years since we lost Steve Jobs but his impact and wisdom lives on.  Last week I was reminded of the key to decision making and setting priorities.

What Steve Jobs did was actually really simple, and seemingly common sense.  He would work out the one most important thing he could be doing on any day, and then he would do that.

In his own words:

“Prioritization sounds like such a simple thing, but true prioritization starts with a very difficult question to answer, especially at a company with a portfolio approach: If you could only do one thing, what would it be? And you can’t rationalize the answer, and you can’t attach the one thing to some other things. It’s just the one thing.”

Steve Jobs

It was last week, listening to Rachel Carrell, founder of Koru Kids that I was reminded of this lesson to ‘be more Steve’ when it comes to prioritisation and decision making.

And guess what? Steve Jobs learnt this from Jerry Yang, the CEO of Yahoo. So to ‘be more Steve’ is not just to set good priorities, it is also to learn from other leaders as every interaction and exposure to another leader is a chance to grow.

You can read the full interview in the New York Times here:

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Morning routine: It’s less about getting up early; it’s more about getting to bed on time

It does not matter how well intentioned your are, what killer morning routine you are following or how early you wake up; if you are overly tired you are not going to be more productive and creative. In fact you may even be doing yourself harm.

Particularly at the moment, with the threat of COVID 19, we all need strong immune systems and the ability to repair our bodies effectively. Therefore whatever morning routine you choose, make sure it is not impacting on quality sleep or you are adopting early wake-ups for the wrong reasons.

Are you tough enough?

I started my career in the military and I am a parent so I have had my fair (or unfair) share of early mornings and sleep deprivation. There is something to be said for learning how to manage your body — and your emotions — when you are tired but there is a danger that having just a few hours of sleep becomes a badge of honour. This is a dangerous culture.

Stories of entrepreneurs, politicians and other influencers who claim they can get by on just a few hours of sleep a night does not help. There is a lot to learn from such people and their routines, but when it comes to sleep, you have to look at the science.

The effects of lack of sleep on our thinking

Even just one night of reduced sleep impairs our decision-making and response times. One well known example is that driving a vehicle when tired is equivalent to drunk driving (Williamson and Feyer). But that impariment caused by lack of sleep affects all our reasoning. Simple fact: you are likely to make worse decisions if you are tired. I am sure we can all think of personal examples!

And it is not just the speed of our cognition; it is the quality of our thinking too. We are far less creative if we are tired. This is partly due to the fact that sleeping aids our creativity, as the cycles of REM and NREM sleep (Drago, Foster et al) helps the processing of our data and allows new experimental connections for that information (hence crazy dreams!). Dreaming causes a powerful creative boost, particularly if you can have lucid dreams, the dreams where you are aware of your dream and can change aspects of the dream (Zink, Pietrowsky).

We also struggle to learn new information or recall old data when we are tired. Did I pay any attention to this as a student? No! I have had the terrifying experience of late night revision followed by not being able to recall anything in an exam the next day. That still gives me nightmares! So learn from my mistakes and note, late night cramming sessions are likely to be counter-productive (Curcio, Ferrara, Gennaro) and being half-asleep during lessons will not help you get the grades you want.

“Some people talk in their sleep. Lecturers talk while other people sleep”
Albert Camus

The impact of sleep deprivation on health

A lack of sleep immediately starts to impact your immune system but the impact compounds if you continue not having enough sleep over longer periods of time (Bryant, Trinder, Curtis).

Continually having less sleep than the body needs is classed as chronic sleep deprivation. The crazy thing is that many jobs, for example anything with long day and night shift work (Berger and Hobbs) can induce chronic sleep deprivation. If you choose an early morning routine without enough rest then you are in danger of developing the same chronic condition.

There is increasing evidence that this lack of quality sleep is linked to longer-term physical and mental health issues such as developing Type 2 diabetes or Alzheimer’s disease (Carmen).

Therefore we should all be concerned about getting quality sleep and reducing the times where we have fewer hours to rest, or our sleep is interrupted.

How much sleep do you need?

“The amount of sleep required by the average person is five minutes more.”

Playwright Wilson Mizner, quoted in The Philadelphia Inquirer

The simple fact is: we need sleep and if you don’t sleep you will eventually die. However, you can survive on small amounts of sleep for a very long time. This is an important survival adaptation. It is amazing what the body can do when we need to push it. Those who have sailed solo around the world can testify to this, but equally few of those sailors would recommend the same sleeping regimen when they are ashore. Therefore being able to operate with minimal sleep is a useful survival mechanism but not a good modus operandi.

The general recommendation is that you need 7–9 hours of sleep a night (Chaput, Dutil, Sampasa-Kanyinga). If you think you are an exception to that rule then think again. There have been studies showing some people who genetically need slightly less (or slightly more) sleep but these are a tiny proportion of the population and this abnormality is generally bad for life expectancy anyway (Bushey, Tononi, Cirelli) so it may be something to get medical advice on, rather than to boast about.

So not getting enough sleep is literally burning the candle at both ends. Being awake too much and asleep too little reduces your life expectancy. So what can we do about it? We can ensure a good evening routine for starters, and that is what we will look at next.

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There is still a lot to be said for having a good morning routine

For the record, I generally get up reasonably but not crazily early (around 6am). I like to have time for reflection, light exercise and a healthy breakfast before I get into my working day. This routine is frequently frustrated or interrupted (see earlier note reference children) but the success of my morning routine, and my day, is largely dependent upon the quality of my rest.

Therefore it is the evening routine that ensures a successful morning routine. 

Here are some guidelines for developing a good night routine, as recommended by Matthew Walker in his excellent book Why we sleep.

Set an alarm to go to bed, not one to get up

I don’t actually set an alarm but I do watch the clock and get into bed on time. That way I can wake up naturally. It is very rare that I set an alarm unless I have some crazy early flight to catch or some other abnormal, occasional event, liking setting off to climb a mountain while the snow bridges on the glaziers are still frozen solid. So you get the idea, alarms in the morning are best not to be an everyday occurrence.

Don’t watch screens late

It was not that long ago when having a TV in your house, let along your room, was seen as a real luxury (speak to your parents!). Now, with our phones, tablets, computers and more besides, it does not matter where we go, a diverting moving image is just a swipe away. The problem is that the blue light given off by our devices plays havoc with our sleep.

Watching a screen suppresses the production of melatonin, our sleep hormone. Therefore watching something when you are tired, or just before sleeping (or if you wake up in the night), will make it harder to sleep. Better to read a book, listen to relaxing music, or write in your journal.

Don’t eat late

There are plenty of dieting and fasting routines out there too but quite simply, if you give yourself ample time to digest every night you will put on less weight and sleep better (Truong).

Ideally I like to eat my dinner before 7pm which then gives about 12 hours before breakfast. This is a good amount of time to re-set your system as it is in itself a mini-fasting period.

And don’t snack just before you go to sleep, you should ideally have a couple of hours between eating and sleeping. The challenge is that in the modern world we are only have to reach out our arms to get a snack, whether that is at home, at the office or out and about in the city.

This is where the discipline comes in. It is very hard to overcome the biologically hard-wired urges to snack when there is food available, and that it just what snack and fast food sellers make their money from.

Be strong! 

Have a good dinner and then wait until breakfast. You will feel better for it. For me that means reducing the ‘bad’ snack food in the house. I know I will give in to the temptation if it is in the cupboard!

Don’t drink alcohol late

The idea of a nightcap is not a good one. Alcohol helps you feel sleepy but it actually erodes the quality of your rest (Roehrs, Roth). The more alcohol in the system the greater the impact, therefore it is best to avoid having a drink close to bedtime. I wish that Malt Whisky was a good sleep tonic but unfortunately the science says otherwise.

Don’t have too much caffeine

Reduce the amount of caffeine you consume, especially after midday. I love coffee (and would go as far as saying as having that I have a deep, meaningful, long-term, committed relationship with coffee) but I try to limit myself to two cups in the morning.

In the afternoon I swap to tea or various sorts. Being English, I must have a cup of proper tea around 4pm. Later in the evening I aim to have non-caffeinated drinks such as mint tea or hot water with lemon and ginger.

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So should I get up early or not?

There is no problem with getting up early, if you have had enough quality sleep. Therefore if you want a productive morning routine then make sure you develop a good evening routine.

There is loads more to read on this subject. As a starting point check out the references below but if you want to read one good book on the subject then I definitely recommend Why we sleep. It is this book that prompted my change in approach to my morning and evening routines.

“There is a time for many words, and there is also a time for sleep.”
Homer, The Odyssey

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References:

Williamson and Feyer, Moderate sleep deprivation produces impairments in cognitive and motor performance equivalent to legally prescribed levels of alcohol intoxication

Drago, Foster et al, Cyclic alternating pattern in sleep and its relationship to creativity

Zink, Pietrowsky, Relationship between Lucid Dreaming, Creativity and Dream Characteristics

Curcio, Ferrara, Gennaro, Sleep loss, learning capacity and academic performance

Bryant, Trinder, Curtis, Sick and tired: does sleep have a vital role in the immune system?

Berger and Hobbs, Impact of Shift Work on the Health and Safety of Nurses and Patients

Editor, The Diabetes Community Diabetes and Sleep

Carmen, Deep sleep may be the key to prevent Alzheimer’s disease

Chaput, Dutil, Sampasa-Kanyinga, Sleeping hours: what is the ideal number and how does age impact this?

Bushey, Tononi, Cirelli, The Drosophila Fragile X Mental Retardation Gene Regulates Sleep Need

Walker, M, ‘Why we sleep’

Roehrs, Roth, Sleep, Sleepiness, and Alcohol Use

Truong, Weight Loss and Sleep

Being self-aware requires time. What’s more, to connect thoughtfully, spiritually and emotionally with ourselves (let alone others and our environment) does not always come easily.

Therefore, it is important to find ways we can be more mindful in everyday activities. The exemplar of using mundane activities as spiritual opportunities was probably Brother Lawrence (author of The Practice of the Presence of God) who was able to pray while doing the dishes. I, for one, struggle with achieving this level of mindfulness!

Where I do feel more naturally thoughtful and mindful is outdoors. This is why I find walking a great help for personal and spiritual reflection.

“There is not in the world a kind of life more sweet and delightful, than that of a continual conversation with God; those only can comprehend it who practise and experience it.” Brother Lawrence

Prayerful Pilgrims

The concept of mindful walking can be traced back to religious practices such as pilgrimage. People of various faiths have used pilgrimages to holy sites to be opportunities to examine themselves, as well as demonstrating their spiritual commitment.

There is a growing interest in pilgrimages, as can be seen in the growing popularity of traditional Christian routes such as the Camino de Santiago (in France and Spain), The Pilgrims Way (UK) or the Way of St Francis (Italy).

“We are the Pilgrims, master; we shall go
Always a little further; it may be
Beyond that last blue mountain barred with snow
Across that angry or that glimmering sea”

James Elroy Flecker

These long, multi-day or multi-week walks, allow separation from the busyness of life that can allow quality self-reflection and opportunity for deep spiritual connection. But unfortunately, we don’t all have the opportunity or the time to do a full pilgrimage.

Mindful Mazes

One lesser-known, fascinating way to have a mindful walk, is to use a labyrinth. A labyrinth is a physical path or a track you follow, with stop-off points to allow reflection. The inspiration at each station could be a piece of text, an object, some music, or anything else that engages the senses and triggers the imagination. In this process, people can start to connect their ‘being’ to their ‘doing’ and deeply consider vital themes and ideas.

Labyrinths are often designed into properties such as old cathedrals or country houses, the most famous example probably being at Chartres Cathedral in France.

Creating your own mindful walk

Even without a labyrinth on hand, you can create your own mindful walk using the same principles. I have found that in this way one can replicate being more mindful on a walk, no matter where you are.

If you are anything like me, then generally you like to stride out and make progress when you walk. Taking time to pause can be almost physically painful! Therefore, it is a discipline to stop, and use my senses on these types of walk.

If you want to try and do the same, you can try this. Go for a wander, it does not matter where really but you want to be somewhere you can avoid or ignore interruptions. You also want places where you can stop and think without feeling too self-conscious.

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Questions for Reflection

When you find a place to stop, then look for something that can help you be more mindful. For example, to help you could:

• Pick up or touch a small object such as a pebble or leaf. How does it feel? How was it made, or how did it get there? What role does it play in the larger environment? Answer the same questions for yourself.
• Smell a blossom or fresh-cut grass. What memory does it invoke? What were you like then? How have you changed?
• Listen to the wind or some flowing water. How does that make you feel? Do you feel better or worse? How do you want to feel?

There are of course many other questions you could ask; these are just examples. You can be very specific if you want and use objects to think about an issue that is on your mind. On the other hand, sometimes the best results come from just meditating on the object and letting the thoughts come on their own.

Why not go for a walk now and give it a try?

“The possession of knowledge does not kill the sense of wonder and mystery. There is always more mystery.” Anais Nin

How do you think you could best prioritise your tasks and workload? What are the best techniques and tools for prioritisation? How can you prioritise to improve efficiency and productivity?

I have a portfolio career and therefore am constantly organising and prioritising events in my calendar, to ensure that I am on top of all my various commitments. Therefore it is no surprise that I have spent a lot of time studying and experimenting with numerous prioritisation techniques.

If you search like I have you will find that there are many strategies for prioritising and tips on time management, so many that it can be overwhelming. Which approach is the best one? But, if you look carefully, you will see they all boil down to the same thing.

Whether you follow the advice of leaders such as Steve Jobs and Dwight Eisenhower or read business experts such as Stephen Covey, Tim Ferris, Brian Tracey or David Allen you will see there is a common theme, even if techniques might differ. Don’t have time to get through all that material? Don’t worry, as I have done that for you, I can give you the executive summary!

So, what is the result? The not-so-secret, irreducible truth at the heart of prioritising is simple:

Do the most important task first. 

You might have been expecting something more but it really is that simple. Let’s go back to a few of the sources so you can see what I mean, then we can put it into practice.

Put First Things First

If you want to be truly productive then you need to prioritise effectively. It is a constant decision-making process, working out what to do next.

“Put first things first” – Stephen R Covey

Putting first things first is one of Stephen Covey’s 7 Habits of Highly Effective People. It means don’t check your email or your phone until you have achieved that important task!

Most people have a long list of things they need to do. The trick is then to prioritise that list, not to just start at the top and then work down.

Tools such as the Eisenhower Matrix, made popular by Stephen Covey, can help you work out which tasks are important and which are urgent. Alternatively, using the Pareto Principle (a favourite of Timothy Ferris) you can spot and leverage the 20% of work that will get you 80% of the results.

If you set your priorities in this way, it means however the rest of the day goes, you will have done the most important thing first.

But what if you are still struggling?

Be More Steve

The theory is simple, but the practice is often hard. How do you work out what to do when you are feeling overwhelmed? This is the same challenge that Steve Jobs faced, as he said:

“Prioritization sounds like such a simple thing, but true prioritization starts with a very difficult question to answer, especially at a company with a portfolio approach: If you could only do one thing, what would it be? And you can’t rationalize the answer, and you can’t attach the one thing to some other things. It’s just the one thing.” Steve Jobs

So, what you need to do is ask yourself the same question that Steve Jobs used:

If you could do only one thing, what would it be? 

We should always focus on the one thing we can do, on any given day, that takes us closer to success. Finished a task? Ask the same question again and make sure you are doing the next important thing.

If we continue to challenge ourselves with this question we can all Be More Steve and be more focussed and productive with our work time.

Ok, so you have identified the top thing on your to-do list. But what if you don’t like the look of the most important task?

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Eat That Frog

The most important and impactful thing you need to do may well be a task that you don’t want to do. It could be a difficult conversation you have been avoiding. Maybe it’s that deadline you keep pushing back on. There is a good chance that work that you have been avoiding is the task you most need to tackle.

If that is the case, there is a danger you will – consciously or unconsciously – employ evasion techniques to avoid doing that work. You might convince yourself that it is not really the most important thing or just allow yourself to get distracted.

Stop. Take a deep breath, hold your nose and…eat that frog!

The phrase Eat that Frog was coined by leadership guru Brian Tracy. It is the discipline of doing the unpleasant task first to get it out of the way. The rationale is that if you have to eat a frog you might as well get it over with first, and fast! The same goes for unpleasant work. There is nothing for it but to get on with it, suck it up, then move on.

The Right Questions Prioritisation Tool: Use PAD for good time-management

So prioritising is simple in theory, but it is hard to do in practice. And once you have identified your most important task it does not stop there. You have looked ahead and identified the most important tasks; now what? This is where effective prioritisation meets good time management.

Having read a lot of books and played with various techniques I have developed a system that works for me, even when juggling multiple roles and responsibilities.

To manage my time I follow the 3 steps in the PAD acronym:

• Prioritise
• Assess
• Diarise or Do

Let’s look at these in a little more detail:

1. Prioritise

First identify your priority tasks. Using something like the Eisenhower matrix, organising tasks into what is either urgent and/or important can be really helpful at this stage.

2. Assess

Once you have worked out your priority tasks you can assign an amount to each. It takes practice to accurately estimate how long an activity will take. One top tip is that I very rarely assign less than 15 minutes to any task, even if it is a simple phone call. More often I give 30 minutes to an hour for each major task. This may sound like a lot for some pieces of work but it builds in the time it takes to switch between tasks or deal with interruptions.

3. Diarise or Do

Finally, the task needs to go in the calendar, or, if it is truly both important and urgent then it should be started as soon as possible.

Top tip: use different colours for different sorts of tasks in your calendar. For example, I have different colours for each of my work roles, and others for family, fitness and other non-work priorities. This helps to achieve a balance between various priorities.

3 steps to better prioritisation and time management

So follow the 3 steps of PAD to prioritise your time. It is not just helpful practically, psychologically this is helpful too. Going through these steps brings clarity and commitment. Clarity, because the process forces you to properly define and organise what needs to be done. Commitment, because once in the calendar, it is more likely you will accomplish the goal.

PAD will help to ensure that your priority tasks get done. If you continue to use it to review your calendar (I do this on a daily basis) it will also help identify other engagements you may need to change, or tasks you need to say no to, in order to achieve your most important work.

So, the question is, now that you have read this, what is the next most important thing you need to do today?

I have a portfolio career. I have developed this career steadily over the course of more than a decade. Over this period my work has developed from side-hustles and freelancing into a proper career; one with purpose, direction, and development opportunities. This career allows me the flexibility and variety I crave. I get to work on the things I love, support my family and enjoy the lifestyle that I want.

Sound too good to be true?

Well, I will share how I have built this career and made it financially sustainable. But before we go on let’s look at what a portfolio career is and isn’t.

What is a portfolio career?

What does the term portfolio career mean and how does it differ from a side-hustle?

A portfolio career is either having several jobs at once or a number of jobs for a short time. The former definition is increasingly the most frequently used term and it is the meaning I will be referring to in this article.

I would also suggest that a portfolio career is not just a side-hustle or even multiple side-hustles. These things are similar, as there are multiple jobs involved, but a portfolio career is different to a side-hustle in the way strategy is different to tactics.

A side-hustle is generally a short-term tactic to improve cash flow or to start a new venture. These side-hustles can develop into a portfolio career, but they are usually a means to an end rather than the end itself. For example, you might do a part-time job to pay the bills while you are building a writing career or launching a start-up. Equally the writing or start-up might be the side-hustle that you do alongside your full-time job. The side-hustle, therefore, supports a transition or goal.

A portfolio career is less of a goal and more of a long-term career choice. It is a career strategy that builds multiple work opportunities and revenue streams into a coherent whole. This choice allows a particular lifestyle, career progression and set of opportunities. The jobs themselves may not appear related, but they are designed together, as I will demonstrate later.

Why would you want a portfolio career?

A portfolio career is not for everyone. It is not the only or best sort of career; it is just a choice. As with many decisions in life, it comes down to what you value most. The advantages and disadvantages of any career are generally linked to this balance and choice around these values.

People hold a variety of different values. These are almost always good things, but how we choose to prioritise those principles or beliefs defines our specific values. That prioritisation makes our choices differ from other people. For example, stability and flexibility are both great but it is hard to have both in your work. You often need to prioritise one over the other.

In the case of portfolio careers versus a traditional career path you might be weighing up these or similar values:

Traditional Career	Portfolio Career
Stability	Flexibility
Specialism	Variety
Security	Opportunity
Structure	Freedom

They are almost two sides to a coin; if you choose one advantage then you lose out on the other. The flip side of any choice becomes the disadvantage, the opportunity cost, of that decision. But we shall see later how to build a career to offset these downsides.

What sort of career is best for me?

Whether a more traditional or portfolio career is best for you really depends on what you value and what you are passionate about. There are no easy answers. A lot of the people I coach are trying to work out exactly these sorts of things and it takes time and reflection to really make the right decision.

It is important to remember that you can find your vocation, use your passion and stay true to your purpose in either type of career. For example, I have many friends who are doctors. They are passionate about what they do but, to follow that vocation, they need to specialise rather than multi-task in their career. No one would question that what they do does not have an incredible value, particularly in the present pandemic. The same could be said for a lot of other professions and vocations.

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How do you build a portfolio career?

If you decide a portfolio career is right for you then to build one you need to maximise the things that align with your values and design the career to offset some of the potential risks and downsides of this sort of career. Therefore, you need to think about the role that each job or income plays in the overall career and financial picture.

To demonstrate this point I will use a farm analogy. One good thing about this analogy is that it shows that a portfolio career is nothing new. In fact, you could argue, developing a working life with multiple income streams has been around longer than the ‘work and then retire’ model. The farm, small-holding or cottage industry are all long-existing examples.

To keep things as simple as possible we are going to limit our model to four elements. That does not necessarily mean we have exactly four jobs or income streams, but we need to fulfil the purpose of each one.

For our portfolio career we will need:

• The farmhouse
• The cow
• The chicken
• The cash-crop

What should go in a portfolio career?

So, using this metaphor let us look at what should go in a portfolio career to support these elements. Each part of the portfolio has a career and financial purpose, as can be seen in the following table:

	The Farmhouse	The Cow	The Chicken	The Cash-Crop
Purpose	Stability	Structure	Productivity	Passion
Income type	Fall back	Assured cash flow	Top-up cash	Windfall
Productivity	Slow	Steady	Intermittent	Volatile
Activity	Consolidate	Manage	Build	Experiment
Feels	Solid	Reliable	Useful	Inspirational

We design the whole career working on how to maximise the things we value (for example the opportunity and flexibility) while managing and offsetting the potential downsides (like stability and security).

In this way it is like a financial portfolio, or a house build if you prefer these alternative analogies:

Farm Analogy	The Farmhouse	The Cow	The Chicken	The Cash-Crop
Financial Analogy	Asset/Pension	Bond/accumulation investment	Investment income/dividends	Speculative Investment
Property Analogy	Foundations	Structure	Fittings	Furnishings

Managing the elements of a portfolio career

So, let’s look at how we develop and manage each of these facets in turn.

The Farmhouse

The farmhouse gives stability. The same goes for a traditional career but in a portfolio career, you need to be much more mindful of what your career fall-back is and how you underpin your long-term finances.

For me, this stability comes through property. I am not saying this is the right choice for everyone, just as an example of how I have built this financial foundation. My attraction for property is partly due to being an engineer by education and because I worked in the construction and housing industry. Therefore, I have always seen property not just as a home but as an investment opportunity.

I know that many people now are struggling to get onto the property ladder, and this may seem an unachievable dream but, by way of encouragement, I started off small and you might be able to do the same too.

My progression into property developed along these lines:

• Pay off student debt
• Save for a deposit
• Buy the first property (that needed renovation) with my partner
• Renovate property and create a second bedroom
• Get a lodger
• Start to rent out property whilst on holiday
• Use a job opportunity to move out, rent out our first property
• Save to buy a second property as we were renting

Let me point out the timeframe. It took me years to save up for a deposit and another ten years to go from one property to two. But we bought the first property knowing we needed income as soon as possible. The lesson? Start small but plan long with this sort of asset.

Using the gig-economy and developing passive income

When starting small you can join the gig economy. This allows you to start getting an income but also comes with some downsides. In our case, we had to compromise on our privacy when we got a lodger. We had to do a lot of work to advertise and prepare our flat to rent it out in the holiday season. The point is we started to leverage what we had.

What can you do? Maybe you can do something similar or rent out some storage space, workspace, a car-parking space? If you don’t have a property, what other asset could you leverage? You can rent out cars, household appliances and pretty much anything you can imagine in today’s gig economy.

Developing a passive income

In the world of Timothy Ferris, this ‘Farmhouse’ would be considered a passive income. It is a mature asset that brings a steady income or could be sold to raise capital. But anyone who has tried to get a passive income knows, developing a passive income is anything but passive! It generally requires time, money, and lots of hard work. If you want a business that gives you a passive income you first must build that business. If you want investments, online products, writing or property to be that financial base, you have to build them first.

So as mentioned before, start small but plan long. And start as soon as possible if you don’t have something already.

The good news is that once this part of the portfolio is built it is relatively low maintenance. The idea here is to consolidate the income stream and hold the asset for the long term.

The Cow

The farmhouse gives stability but may not bring much, or enough, in terms of cash flow. This is where the cow comes in. The cow brings a steady, reliable income.

For me, in work terms, this has been my career as a Reservist in the Military. This is a part-time job, one that provides a steady income, but it also gives me meaningful career progression and opportunities for personal development. I have been in the Reserves for more than 15 years and it is not something I could have done for that long if it was not something I enjoyed. It is not just a job to pay the bills (although it does help to do this), it is a career itself. As a leadership coach, being an Army Officer also keeps me honest and forces me to practice what I preach!

For you, it may be another sort of part-time role somewhere. It might be that you change your present full-time role to become a part-time one. This will take some negotiation with your employer, but I know plenty of people who have achieved just that.

The financial role of ‘the cow’ in the portfolio can be another investment or asset that provides a steady income. It is like having bonds or other investments that give you a steady return. Nothing dazzling, just reliable. If you are fortunate like me and can also make that something you value and enjoy, so much the better.

The Chicken

So now the baseline cash flow is assured. What next? Well, this is where the chicken comes in. The chicken gives top-up cash. It has some worth as an asset, but its real worth comes through its productivity. What it produces is also not enough to cover cash-flow needs on its own, but it boosts overall income considerably.

In financial terms, the chicken means that once we have paid the bills (hopefully these are covered by the Farmhouse and Cow), this is the extra we need for discretionary spending and luxuries.

This might court controversy but foreign holidays, designer clothes and eating at restaurants are all in this financial category. I am not saying you should not want or have these things (most of us do), but just remember where they are on the priority scale. In Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, these are similar to the basic physiological needs of food and clothing, but expensive coffee is more about self-actualisation than survival (although it doesn’t always feel that way in the morning!)

I say this as at times when building my portfolio career, I have had to do without some of these nice things in order to progress. Buying our first property completely cleaned us out of funds and for several years we had to watch every penny. But that budgeting allowed us to consolidate our finances and progress in our careers.

So, adding a chicken to the portfolio increases our income to more comfortable levels. Coaching, facilitating, and consulting is my ‘chicken’. It is a more intermittent cash flow, as it depends upon my business development and the time of year, but this creates an income that goes above my basic needs. The income is intermittent but generally very good when it does come in.

It is also not just a job that I am doing for cash. I love this work – particularly coaching leaders – and I find it deeply satisfying. But it is also very time consuming, so I must limit this work and, as a result, the income that comes with it. I need to do this to provide time for the final element of the portfolio career.

The Cash Crop

The cash crop is the part of the portfolio that is high risk and high reward. It is likely to be the thing you are most passionate about but won’t bring you an immediate income, or at least not enough of one that you can live off.

The cash crop gives the opportunity for creativity and experimentation and, if we are lucky, for a financial windfall. But there is also the chance we could fail at the loss of our time, and potentially some income, in the short term.

It might be that sometime in the future, the cash crop of today becomes the chicken, cow or even the farmhouse of your future career, but for today it is a new venture.

For me, my writing, public speaking and online business come into this category. I love creating and communicating content to a large audience.

As I seek to try out new things and nurture this part of my career it takes a disproportionate amount of time compared with the income it creates. So why do I keep doing it? Because it is my passion.

Also, the more this part of my portfolio career increases the more it supports the underlying reasons for seeking a portfolio career in the first place. It gives me a variety, challenge, and flexibility that I would not get otherwise.

So, what is it that you would dearly love to do? What do you do in your free time that you would also love to get paid for? These passions can be developed to become cash crops. You just need to think creatively.

For example, I love walking. No one is going to pay me to go walking right? And yet that is what I do. I coach people while I walk, I record my podcast while I walk, I make business calls while I walk. The fact is that you can take just about anything you enjoy, pivot the idea, and make it part of your work life.

When should you start your portfolio career?

The best time to start building a portfolio career is now. That doesn’t mean you have to quit your present job right away, maybe not at all, but you do need to start planning.

What sorts of jobs and opportunities do you think could make up the various aspects of your career and income? Using the analogy here, what would you list under each heading. They could well be blank. Don’t worry, they were for me at the beginning too! It also took some time for the various elements to settle into the structure.

The important bit is working out the next step. This should be something that you can achieve today. To help with the next step ask yourself: what is the best thing I can do today to take myself closer towards my dream?

Whatever your answer to this question is it probably requires an allocation of resources. How will you use your time and money? Maybe you need to set up a standing order from your bank to start building up some savings. Or perhaps you need to find a time every day you can commit to your passion. It could be that you need to hunt for that side-hustle or part-time job.

Whatever it is, put it in your diary now. (I nearly wrote dairy – the farm analogy has gone deep!) And once you have achieved that step, ask the same again: what is the best thing I do now to help me progress?

Will it work?

A portfolio career has worked for me. If it fits your values, you can make it work too.

I have been blessed to come through the pandemic in good shape and a lot of this I can put down to my career choices and how I built my portfolio together. I am not saying that it has been easy, but I can attest to the financial resilience of a portfolio career.

But as I said at the beginning, my career did not come together overnight. One of the greatest bits of career advice I ever had was from a former manager. They told me:

“Many people overestimate what they can achieve in a year and vastly underestimate what they can do in five or ten years.”

This wisdom helped me to plan and measure success over a different time frame. In the age of rapid fame and instant gratification, this is counter-cultural, but the advice has served me well.

And I think that is a great place for me to stop and for you to start. What is it you need to do today to develop your career?

Remember: start small, plan long, but start now.

Good luck on your adventure!

I have been fascinated by the art and science of decision-making ever since being trained as a bomb disposal officer, back at the beginning of my career. Since then, I have worked in various sectors and in numerous senior management roles. I have learned that the need to make good decisions is critical to every leadership position. What is more, working as a leadership coach I have found that a large part of my coaching is helping people think about choices they must make and assisting them in effective decision-making.

We all have the ability to make choices, but making effective decisions is not a given. The good news is that decision-making can be learned, and by applying simple models you can ensure you will make better decisions and develop your competency as a decision-maker.

Important vs non-important decisions 

My experience, coupled with my reading and research, has led me to these ten steps that I recommend to anyone needing to make an important decision. I say important decision as most of the time it is not worth sweating over the small stuff. If we overthink every decision, we can suffer from analysis paralysis. For smaller, less critical decisions we can use heuristics (rules of thumb) or simple hacks to help with choices. We don’t want to spend an age deciding what coffee we are having today or scrutinise every item we select at the supermarket.

So, what is an important decision? In this case, I am talking about are the larger choices we must make in life. Decisions about our vocation, our life direction, or our loved ones. If you are considering a new job, a romantic partner, a new home, or something else of a similar magnitude, then it is worth following these steps.

The 10 steps to making effective decisions

So here are the ten steps in summary:

1. Take time out
2. Identify the type of problem
3. Apply a decision-making process or model
4. Ask questions
5. Understand what really matters
6. Assess factors and constraints
7. Identify assumptions
8. Consider your options
9. Think through the consequences
10. Make your choice and act upon the decision

Let’s now look at each step in more detail.

1. Take time out

The first thing, when faced with an important decision, is to pause. Take time to make your decision. We all face stimuli, external forces that we need to react to. Each stimulus leads to a response. The gap between the stimulus and our response is called the decision space. This is where we engage our brain rather than just relying on instinct. Our reactions and intuitive responses can be very helpful, but we should try to use our head, as well as our heart, whenever we can.

Even when faced with an imminent, life-threatening decision it is (more often than not) worth taking just a micro-pause to think before you act. For example, if you are hiking in the woods and you are suddenly confronted with a bear then everything inside of you might be screaming at you to turn and run. This is the natural fight or flight response. But running is not the recommended option. The National Parks Service recommends that you identify yourself, stand your ground, wave your arms, and remain calm. Doing that requires a moment to think, control yourself and decide to do those things. They are not a natural response.

Most big decisions are not so life-threatening, or so time-critical, that we cannot take time out. Therefore, set aside time, put it in your diary and avoid other distractions so you can objectively think about the choice you have to make.

2. Identify the type of problem

The next thing to work out is the sort of problem you are facing. Maybe you did not even realise there are different sorts of problems, but there are, and the nature of the problem relates to the sort of solution you want to pursue.

One of the best-known frameworks for classifying problems is that of Keith Grint who developed the idea of critical, wicked and tame problems. Critical problems are ones that need immediate action and clear direction. The example of coming face-to-face with a bear would come into this category. Wicked problems are ones with no known solution and may not even have an endpoint. These require novel approaches, creativity and finding the least-worst outcome. Tame problems have known solutions and can be managed with the right expertise. Most problems we face are actually tame. Other people have faced and overcome the same issues, which is good news for us, as we can get advice and learn from other people’s experiences as we seek to make our own decisions.

3. Apply a decision-making process or model

Once we know the type of problem, we can choose a model or process to help us think through the problem and make our decision. Have a look at tools and frameworks that other people have used to make similar choices.

There are lots of different tools you can use. You may already be aware of some common ones such as the SWOT analysis or GROW model. These generic tools can be applied to many decisions, but it is worth doing some research as you may find that there are specific tools that can help with your particular situation. Resources such as The Decision Book (Korgerus and Tschapeler) is a great place to start as it has 50 different models to try.

4. Ask questions

Whichever model you choose you will find that it is generally a structured process of asking questions. Each tool aids us by giving a framework of questions for us to consider. You can even use question words, or interrogatives, as a framework. That is one of my favourite approaches and one I have used since my days as a bomb disposal officer.

You can do this by writing down the main interrogatives of why, where, what, how, who, when and which. Create your own open questions relating to your specific issue. My recommendation is to start with why questions, as I will explain next.

5. Understand what really matters 

As you start to develop your questions you will have to answer why the decision really matters. This is probably the most important thing to get straight in your mind before you go further. I agree with Simon Sinek in that we should ‘start with why’ when facing a problem or decision.

Asking why helps to delve into our motivation and priorities around the choice we are making. It makes us think about how our personal values relate to a given issue. Our principles guide us in the decisions we make. The hardest choices usually force us to prioritise and select between things we value. We can only make these kinds of choices if we are truly aware of those underlying values.

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6. Assess factors and constraints 

Once we have established our values, we can assess the various factors and constraints that we face in our situation. These factors will vary dependent upon the choice we are making. If we are choosing a home then factors might include the size of the property, its proximity to our workplace and whether it has a garden. Constraints are likely to include what we can afford and how far we can realistically commute.

7. Identify assumptions

It is good to gather data to help inform our decision, but we can never have all the information we might like or need. Therefore, we must make some assumptions in the absence of that data.

For example, we cannot know everything about someone we are attracted to. Whether you are at the point of asking them out for the first time or committing to them for life, you have to make that decision based on incomplete knowledge.

So, assumptions are essential, but we must be careful about making false assumptions just as much as ignoring key factors. Let’s say the person you are attracted to loses things. That is a factor. You might miss that fact, you might choose to discount it, but assuming someone will simply change is likely to be a false assumption. I can attest to this!

We can also make harmful false assumptions about ourselves. We can undermine our own decisions with these defeater beliefs. For example, we might discount ourselves from even asking someone out just because we feel we are not good enough.

At this stage of the process, having someone else to assist you can be really helpful. An objective friend, a mentor, coach, or counsellor is more likely to help you unearth and challenge any false assumptions you might hold, than if you just try and do it yourself. If it really is an important decision, get a third party involved, even if that just means phoning someone you trust to talk it through.

8. Consider your options

Once you have considered the situation, with all its factors and assumptions, you can then come up with different potential courses of action to address the problem. Very few issues have only one solution and usually, there is a plethora of advice and options that you could choose from. Therefore, once you have come up with a long list of ideas you can start to whittle the list down to the most attractive options.

You can use your values or an assessment of factors to help choose between options. One simple approach is to use a scoring system in a grid. List the options then score them against the principles or factors that are most relevant. The highest scoring course of action should be the best one.

9. Think through the consequences 

When considering your options, you should also think about the consequences. Work out the risks related to any course of action and think forward to imagine what could happen if you followed that route. Once again here you need to rely on certain assumptions so make sure they are reasonable ones.

Also, don’t discount the consequences of not making a decision. Delaying, avoiding, or actively not doing anything is a choice in itself. What is the opportunity cost of not deciding now, or in the future? Sometimes doing nothing is the right choice but make sure it is an active and considered decision.

Also, remember that you can’t always be right and sometimes things just don’t go your way. Don’t worry. Most decisions are reversible, even if they do come at cost of opportunity, time, money, or heartache. Some of our most important life lessons come from mistakes if we choose to learn from them. Things can also turn out better than expected. For example, joining the Army was not my first career choice but it turned out to be a great opportunity and I would not go back and change that if I could. Remember, at the end of the day – however things turn out – we have a choice about how we respond to events.

10. Make and act upon the decision

Finally, once you have thought things through, you must commit. You must choose and take action. Once decided you then act; you have to physically ask that person, press that button, make that purchase, or whatever it is to turn your choice into a reality.

My recommendation is that you record the process you used and the decision you make. That way, however it goes, you can reflect back on your approach and the outcome. Journaling can help with this but there is no one right way. The important thing is that you can reflect on your choices and learn. In that way, the decision-making cycle also becomes a learning cycle, and you will get better at making decisions.

Over to you

So that’s it. Whether you are setting yourself an audacious goal, picking a career, or choosing a life partner you can start with these ten steps and be confident that you will make a better informed and more effective decision than if you did not follow any process. You might have flipped a coin or gone on a gut feeling alone – and it might even work out – but you will be leaving a lot to luck and you will be missing out on a chance to improve your decision-making.

If you want to build your confidence and competence today and practice before you apply this to something really big, then you can use this same process for a slightly smaller choice. That might be something bigger than which TV series to watch after work but not as significant as changing your job. For example, you could plan a future vacation, where you want to go, with whom and what you want to do. Whatever you choose, take the time out to go through all the steps, record your thoughts and your decision. And feel free to let me know in the comments what you choose!

What do you want to achieve in life?

There are lots of approaches you can take to figure out life goals. You may already keep a bucket list of things you want to do but sometimes it is helpful to think about what we want to achieve using different tools. Each new approach can generate new ideas or give further insight into earlier thinking.

Your desire might be to unlock your purpose in life or just to generate ideas for goals you want to achieve. Either way, this set of questions can help you to create and explore your aims, desires, and dreams.

How to figure out life goals

These questions are based on coaching tips from Michael Neill in his book Supercoach. They are questions that I have found particularly helpful, both for setting my own personal goals and for helping people I coach as they set their life goals.

Go through each question in turn and write down as many ideas as you can against each one.

What things should you achieve?

In other words, what do you feel duty-bound to do? What do you feel is a responsibility or a necessity to achieve?

Which goals are logical?

Another way of asking this question would be, what is the rational thing to progress to? What would be a natural thing to achieve if you follow the course you are presently on?

Which goals give you déjà vu?

Which goals are always on your list and never seem to go away? What goal have you always wanted to do but never succeeded in?

What goals would somebody else set you?

If you asked your best friend or a family member, what sort of goal would they set for you? Think about your spouse or partner, what would they say should be your goal?

Which dreams express your deep wants?

Which goal reflects the deepest desires of your heart? What would give you the greatest satisfaction to achieve?

What would you ask for from your fairy godmother?

If you could wish for anything, what would that be? How about three wishes? What would you ask for?

What are your happy wants?

Which things do you want to achieve that will make you happy? Which ideas make you happy even just thinking about doing them?

What are your naughty wants?

Which goals do you have that you have never told anyone about? What would you like to achieve but have been too embarrassed to share with anyone or too scared to try?

What do you think “if only” I could have achieved?

When you look back in life, what do you wish you had achieved? If you could turn back the clock what would you have done differently?

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How to prioritise your life goals

After answering all the questions above you should have a long list of ideas and dreams. The next task is to prioritise these goals and work out which one you want to achieve first.

Here are some more questions to help you narrow down your selection:

• Which goals are aligned with your personal values?
• What aim would best support your life purpose?
• Which achievement would have the biggest positive impact on your life?
• Which dream, if you did not achieve it, would you be most disappointed about?

How to achieve life goals

Once you have prioritised your list of goals and chosen which one (or more) that you want to achieve, the next step is examining the goal in more detail and developing a plan to help you to succeed.

There are other tools that can help you with this such as stating your goal as a SMART task and making sure it is specific, measurable, attainable, relevant and time-bound.

Another technique, common to coaching, is using the GROW model. Here you state your goal, then look at the reality of your situation and what your starting point is. Then you consider the options or obstacles that you face in achieving your mission, then work out the best way forward and commit your will to fulfil your dream.

Good luck with achieving your life goals!

Cowering in a ditch, I knew that there was a good chance I could be killed or seriously injured by the explosion that was just seconds away. While awaiting my self-induced demise, I had a short time to consider my hubris.

I was a bomb disposal officer. I had been trained to deal with dangerous devices and I also had operational experience. So, if I was such an expert, how had I got into this mess? In a critical situation, despite my training, I had made an error in my decision making.

Pride comes before a fall

Let’s leave me and the ditch for the moment and let me ask you a question:

How do you make good decisions?

Have you thought about the process of making choices? It turns out that, although we can all make decisions, the psychology is quite complicated. If you had asked me that same question back then, early in my career, I would have talked to you about the power of logical thought and how a systematic approach to decision making would ensure good decisions.

Well, I was learning the hard way that there is more to decision-making than just assessing factors and choosing a course of action. There are also things called heuristics that – when used poorly – can spoil our plans.

Going out with a bang

First, let’s get back to me in that ditch. In fact, let’s wind back a little and see how I got there.

The day had started well. It was beautiful. The sky was so big and blue I could stare at it and just lose myself there, wrapped in the warmth of the sun, as I waited for a call from my squad. I was doing what I loved, leading my team, trying to make the world a safer place by removing dangerous objects from this magnificent African landscape. And it was fun too, blowing stuff up is fun (until you are caught up in the explosion that is).

On that day there were over a hundred people out scouring mile after mile of the countryside looking for dangerous material. This could be unexploded artillery shells, mortar rounds and even the occasional big bomb. When they found something, they would call me, as they did that day.

I was hailed on my radio and was given a location some miles away. I drove as close as I could in my Landrover 4×4 with my colleague and then we advanced the last mile or so on foot; when the terrain got too difficult. We turned up to find a large pile of artillery shells that needed to be disposed of.

Situational analysis

At this point, our training and experience kicked in. We used our question technique to assess the situation and came up with a plan.

We had been instructed to use the 5Ws to help assess a situation. The 5Ws are the interrogative words of the English language: what, where, when, who and why. The other common interrogative of ‘how’ was generally added to these 5Ws.

The 5Ws would provide a structure to understand the situation. For example:

• What are we dealing with?  In this case a pile of old artillery shells
• Why are they there?  They have been fired from guns, but the fuse mechanisms have failed to detonate on impact
• Where are they? Located in a difficult to access area of bush. So what? We will have to go in and out on foot
• Who is in danger?  Just my colleague and I; the rest of the area is clear for miles
• How can they be disposed of?  Correct application of plastic explosive and a manual timed fuse

The answers to the questions informed our plan. And, as we did not have the vehicle nearby, we needed somewhere close that would provide us with some cover. We looked around and chose a small hillock in the distance that looked promising.  We estimated how long it would take us to walk there then cut the fuse to the correct length.

Bomb disposal: if you see me running, try to keep up

After checking our work, we lit the fuse, checked our watches and set off towards the small hill that would give us cover.  We chatted about important things such as how many letters we had received from home that week and how much we wanted a cold beer.  The funny thing was the escarpment was not getting any closer.  Our pace increased.

We laughed and joked, and we walked briskly along but looking at our watches gave us some cause for alarm.  We broke into a run.  There was no longer any laughing or even chatting.  All that was said was: “we are not going to get there in time, do you see any other cover?”  We spotted what seemed to be a series of gullies over to our left, so we headed towards them.  Upon reaching them our relief quickly turned back to anxiety because the shallow angle of the gully slopes would afford us little cover.  We ran on.  At this point in the proceedings, I sent up a quick prayer, and with only seconds to go and we dived into a shallow pit and crouched down with our backs to the sand. We had to compress ourselves to keep our heads below the parapet of the depression.

Going out with a bang?

For a few seconds, the only sound was our thumping hearts, heavy breathing and the noise of a nonchalant fly investigating my hat. Then we felt the explosion – a pulse through the earth and a punch through the air.  We looked at one another.  No words were exchanged but much was communicated.  We were both thinking – that was a bigger bang than expected; we felt dreadfully close!

Next, there was a sound that made me flinch – it was like an angry hornet going past my ear – and then there was another, followed by little thuds and puffs of sand as the shrapnel came down around us.  As the deadly rain struck the ground there was little we could do, so I opted to laugh and my Sergeant used a varied, colourful (but sadly unprintable) string of expletives to express his feelings.

When our self-induced bombardment came to an end, and it was obvious we were both not only alive but also unharmed, we spent a few precious seconds enjoying the quiet.  The same solitary fly, who seemed oblivious to the proceedings, was still taking an interest in my hat.

Not surprisingly the whole experience made me ponder about my decision-making.

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The problem with heuristics and the dangers of bias

I had been trained in decision making and planning so what had gone wrong on that day?

Well in this case one good decision-making tool had been undermined by another. My plan for dealing with the bombs was sound, but it was let down by the simple heuristic that I employed to choose my cover.

When judging distance, I was unknowingly using a scaling heuristic, in other words, I was estimating how far away the hillock was due to its size. The problem is this method only really works well if you have a uniform sized object – such as a person or vehicle – and something to compare it with. In this case, I was looking at a hill – I did not know its actual size – and there was nothing else in the bare landscape to compare it with. The hill was a lot bigger and further away than I estimated.

“This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.”

Daniel Kahneman

What is a heuristic?

A heuristic is a simple decision-making hack or rule of thumb. We use these all the time in our thinking and choices.

One example would be how we choose things when we shop at the supermarket. Most of the things we pick up will be the same items we usually get. If you examine your groceries, most will be from suppliers that you know and regularly use. We do this largely to save us from making endless decisions. If we had to start again every time we went to the shops – not knowing what we liked or could trust – then it would take an age to select each thing.

Considering the bewildering number of choices that are on offer in most shops these days. Without this simple heuristic, we could suffer from analysis paralysis. In other words, without a simple way to make decisions then the processing power of our brains could get overwhelmed by the sheer quantity of data.

That is why manufacturers fight so hard for brand recognition and product loyalty. They know they if they can make you switch to their product then you are very likely to stick with it. That is why they are willing to cut prices and make special offers to tempt you to switch your habits.

And that is just one example of a heuristic. We use these thinking tools in everything from catching a ball to choosing where we sit in a cinema.

Are heuristics good or bad?

Heuristics are not bad in themselves. As mentioned, they are useful mental short-cuts that save us time and generally help us to make quick effective judgements. But each heuristic is a simplified model so it cannot take in all the complexities of a situation. Therefore, heuristics must rely on certain assumptions. Once again, assumptions are not intrinsically bad, but some assumptions can be wrong, or just inaccurate in some circumstances.

That is why we need to be aware of the heuristics we use and when we are using them. Going back to my example, there is nothing wrong with the scaling heuristic. Using relative sizes and distances is a well-known and very useful tool for judging distance. The problem was that I applied the tool bluntly, not considering if any of my assumptions were wrong. The reason for my assumptions being wrong was due to cognitive bias, in this instance confirmation bias (but that is another subject for another post).

Use heuristics but beware of hubris

I had a good process for making decisions (using interrogatives) but in this story, one little mistake nearly cost me my life and that of my colleague. In my case, it was my estimate of distance that undermined my plan. My hubris or overconfidence was enough for me to not examine my assumptions.

That does not mean that the heuristic or the rest of the plan was bad. Far from it. Using heuristics, having a decision-making framework and other planning tools can help us make better decisions.

But, as we plan, we must be cognisant of the heuristics and other processes that we are using, especially if those decisions are important. If we are choosing a coffee, fine we can take a risk and assume the barista knows what they are doing and can make a coffee. But if you have a bigger decision to make, such as getting a builder to extend your house, then it is worth examining your options, not just assuming anyone can do the work just because they say so.

So, if you want to make better choices today ask yourself two questions.

1. What heuristic or process am I using?
2. What assumptions am I making and are they correct?

Then you will be on the path to better more effective decisions.

Saying that someone is biased is often used as criticism. We point out when someone obviously favours a person or thing more than another. Bias is synonymous with being prejudiced and that has even more negative connotations. Being prejudiced means having an opinion not based on reason or reality. Thinking of that sort leads to bad judgements. In other words, we associate bias with poor thinking and bad decision-making.

But here is the kicker. We are all biased.

The scientific truth about bias

The definition of cognitive bias is:

“The way a particular person understands events, facts, and other people, which is based on their own particular set of beliefs and experiences and may not be reasonable or accurate.”

So, bias has an individual flavour to its complexity, but research has shown that there are some common trends as to how our bias manifests. In the ever-increasing body of scientific study about cognitive bias, the best place to start is with Daniel Kahneman’s book, Thinking Fast and Slow.

To explain the title, fast thinking (also called system 1 thinking) is the intuitive, often unconscious judgements that we make. Slow thinking (or system 2 thinking) is the more (seemingly) logical, conscious thought process that we employ. Neither system is better than the other, they are just different. Kahneman’s research shows that both systems are influenced by cognitive biases, and we generally choose to ignore these influences in our decision-making.

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.”

Daniel Kahneman

The brain is mind-blowing 

Therefore, bias affects all thinking, and decision-making is just one such thought process influenced by cognitive biases.

The way the brain works when making choices is a marvel of creation. The neural substrates that support our decision-making are not fully understood but, when we make choices, our brain is a light storm of synaptic activity, igniting the prefrontal cortex and pulsing out into the hippocampus, posterior parietal cortex and striatum.

Even before we know we are thinking, our network is leaping into action. Dendrites are stimulated and neurons are firing signals through the axons to other neurons at an astonishing rate.

Ironically, thinking about decision-making like this is mind-boggling!

Thinking of the brain simply as a computer is a poor analogy but, as with computer processing, the brain loves speed. And, to be as fast as possible, firing neurons love to take shortcuts. These shortcuts can help us make judgements at much greater velocities, but as I have already talked about with heuristics, these shortcuts can get us into trouble at times. They have nearly killed me on occasion! Closely linked to heuristics and these shortcuts are cognitive biases.

An example of my biases laid bare

I was wondering how to illustrate the effect of bias on our thinking and decisions and then something happened to me that made me examine many of my own biases. Let me share it with you.

Simon Sinek is one of my favourite writers and speakers and earlier this year Simon Sinek gave a talk about work and how we should love what we do. As ever, Simon’s message was heartfelt and compelling. There was so much I could agree with. I generally do love my work. As a leader, I want the people who work for me to love what they do, and I feel the responsibility for creating that psychologically safe environment where people do feel supported and allowed to flourish.

The funny thing was that I had a little niggle in the back of my head, telling me something was not quite right. So, I watched it again. Afterwards, reflecting on what Mr Sinek was saying, I was able to identify what had got my spider-sense tingling.

What makes a statement true and why do we believe it?

There were a couple of statements that I started to re-examine. The first one is:

“It is a right, it is a God-given right, that we should love where we work.”

Simon Sinek

As Simon says those words my heart is saying “Amen brother!” but my head is saying, “Is that actually true?”

So, I examine the statement again, leaning on the wisdom of others and the power of logical syllogism. The philosopher Karl Popper would start by pointing out that the statement is a non-scientific fact. The statement is not phrased as a logical premise, and it cannot be disproven by scientific means.

If you add theologians into the mix, they will point out that holy books such as the Bible or Koran don’t exactly say that loving work is a God-given right. The emphasis is on loving God and other people rather than work itself.

So, let’s use Simon Sinek’s own advice and “start with why” when we think about his statement. Why does he say that? The statement is actually a rhetorical device, used for emphasis and emotional response. And in those terms, it achieves its ends. But that leaves the question, why do I want the statement to be true, even if it isn’t a fact?

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12 common cognitive biases in under 2 minutes

This is where we come to the flaws in my processing. My thinking is being influenced by multiple biases at once.

The first thing that I am experiencing is the Halo effect. In other words, I am likely to agree with whatever Simon Sinek says because I like and respect him. I expect him to be right. There is also an immediate anchoring effect too because when I see Simon Sinek, I think of Start With Why, a book I really enjoy. Therefore, I am expecting to like what he says.

Sinek is also a leadership guru and talks about things I care about, so I am also suffering from In-group bias, where I favour other leadership geeks; we are the same tribe. Hot on the heels of these preconceptions is groupthink. The interviewer and the people in the audience all seem to be nodding and smiling. I want to go with the consensus. What’s more, no one is challenging what he is saying so there is also a bystander effect. I am not going to make myself look stupid and say something might be wrong if they all seem to agree with him.

Yes, there are more biases yet!

Next is optimism bias. Simon Sinek is a self-proclaimed optimist, so it is not surprising that his message is alluringly optimistic. Also, I want it to be true – as I want to love all my work all the time – so confirmation bias creeps in. I hold to the belief that we can love work, so I start to suffer from belief bias too. I am also suffering from the just-world hypothesis by expecting things to be fair and for people to get what they deserve. Unfortunately, that is not reality.

That one line of logical fallacy is wrapped up amongst a host of other statements that I agree with and so there is also a framing effect. What I see as the validity of the whole talk influences the context in which I judge any one phrase.

And there is more. As I learn more about leadership, the more I realise that there is so much I don’t know. This is the Dunning-Kruger effect. So, I want to learn, and Simon Sinek is an expert I respect, so I naturally doubt the limits of my own knowledge. When I think about my own abilities, I have a negativity bias and suffer from imposter syndrome; therefore, I doubt myself even more.

The tip of the cognitive iceberg

So, I managed at least 12 cognitive biases in the space of two minutes. And that’s just the ones I can easily identify. There are many more biases and if you would like an introduction to a few more of the common ones then I recommend you visit yourbias.is

So, what am I trying to say? That what Simon Sinek says is bad? No, far from it. I remain a fan even if I cannot agree with every single thing he says. And that is fair enough, I don’t think I would agree with everything that has come out of my own mouth if I could only remember things accurately (rather than suffering from misinformation bias)!

The example I used was to demonstrate the dizzying quantity of cognitive biases that can be at play every time we think about something.

You are biased, but don’t panic. Reflect.

The takeaway point is that bias affects us all, all the time. And the tricky thing about bias is that it is hard to spot in ourselves (although seemingly we are able to spot it more easily in other people!)

“We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.”

Daniel Kahneman

If we want to think clearly and make effective decisions, we need to be aware. We cannot avoid cognitive bias but, if you are aware of your thought processes, you can reflect and critique your own thinking.

You can put your newfound knowledge into practice by having another look at the Simon Sinek interview yourself. There is much to enjoy in what he says but there is also at least one more logical fallacy or false statement in there. Can you identify what it is?

And, when you scroll through your social media today think about your reactions to what you are seeing. How are you being influenced? Which biases can you identify in your own thinking?

Congratulations! You are creating the foundations for better thinking and more effective decisions.

Assumptions are often necessary for decision-making, but we need to avoid wrong suppositions if we want to make the right choices. We can get things wrong by applying assumptions in inappropriate circumstances, basing expectations on bad data, or making assumptions based on wrong thinking.

I have experienced the results of decisons made on poor assumptions and, in the process, learnt a lot about how best to avoid them.

A truly immersive cinema experience

I was in my room, watching the Lord of the Rings (The Return of the King) on my laptop. I had my earphones in and, despite the small screen, I was gripped. It was the battle of Minas Tirith, and the city was surrounded by an evil horde of orcs with their siege engines. As the army attacked the city and the rocks flew from the catapults, pounding the citadel I could almost feel the walls shaking. Another huge stone soared through the air to strike. Boom! My chair wobbled.

The sound on my laptop was good but I had definitely felt something. I took out my earphones and listened. The was a crashing sound, this time from outside my room, not from my computer.

Bother I thought, we are under attack.

This was a fair assumption as I was in a military base just outside Basra in 2004. It just turned out that, in a weird bit of synchronicity, that the local militants had decided to attack our base with rockets, just when I was enjoying a bit of downtime and watching a movie. Very inconsiderate of them I thought.

So, I put on my helmet and body armour and – doing my best to exude calm – walked out of my room into the chaos outside, then headed to the operations room. All the while I was thinking, “we expected to be welcomed; we were coming to help after all.”  How wrong we were!

Assumptions, decision-making and planning

There is a phrase about presuppositions, famous in military circles:

“Assumptions are the mother of all f***-ups”

Anon

This is not entirely true, but it does highlight the fact that bad assumptions can have disastrous effects. In the Army, when judgements often have life or death implications, making a wrong assumption could be fatal, as I nearly found out while working as a bomb disposal officer in Africa. And again now, in Iraq, it was turning out that the decisions and planning were based on some very poor assumptions. As a result, the situation was a mess.

What is an assumption and are all assumptions bad?

An assumption is something we accept to be true, even if we are lacking all the evidence. But assumptions are not necessarily bad. We sometimes need to make assumptions in decision-making as we cannot have absolutely all the information we want or need when making a choice.

For example, when I go to buy a flat white from a coffee shop, then I assume that the barista knows how to make one. I will probably look for information to back up that assumption such as, whether they list a flat white on the menu. To reduce the risk of the assumption I might also employ a heuristic (a decision-making hack), such as going to a shop I know and trust, to reduce the risk of getting a bad coffee. In this case, the assumption and the heuristic are sound. However, if I employed that same assumption in the wrong place, for example, a Turkish coffee house in Istanbul, then I might be disappointed when it comes to a flat white. Not only that, but I would also be missing out on some excellent Turkish coffee due to my bias for flat whites!

So, we can make assumptions in our thinking but first, we need to separate out what is a fact and what is an assumption. Once we identified an assumption then we must be sure it is a reasonable one, particularly if we take an assumption we often make and then apply it to a new context.

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Assumptions based on inaccurate information

Some assumptions are not just applied to the wrong situation, they are based on corrupt data in the first place. We can compound the problem by then taking this inaccurate or limited information and then processing it poorly, due to cognitive bias. Going back to my earlier story, this was certainly the case with the war in Iraq.

Donald Rumsfeld, the American politician, famously said:

“Because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.”

There is a lot of wisdom there; although it is unfortunate that Rumsfeld himself did not pay enough attention to his own advice. It turns out, what were thought to be knowns were not knowns at all. They were a mixture of assumptions and wishful thinking.

In 2003, a bunch of bad assumptions, built on poor information, resulted in the US-led coalition intervening in Iraq and deposing Saddam Hussein. The intelligence cited in the ‘dodgy dossier’ has long been challenged. The evidence was based not just on bad information but was also warped by cognitive bias.

Bad assumptions just breed further wrong assumptions

And these assumptions and biases played out at every level. I deployed to Iraq fully believing that we wouldunearth weapons of mass destruction at any moment. For me the logic was simple. Saddam Hussein had used chemical weapons before, in the Iran-Iraq war and even against his own people. Therefore, when I heard that he still had weapons of mass destruction that made perfect sense. Apart from the fact he didn’t. We were suffering from narrative bias, amongst other things.

One of the populations who suffered from these chemical weapons and other persecution were the Shia tribes in Southern Iraq. So, we assumed a welcome after Saddam was removed and we went to rebuild Southern Iraq. This was positivity bias at the very least, but also a massive lack of true understanding. It did not take many months, or many rocket attacks and roadside bombs, to realise quite how wrong our assumptions were.

So, we must not apply our assumptions to the wrong situation. Nor do we make assumptions on bad data. And that means not being selective in the information one chooses to consider. To reduce the negative effects of cognitive bias we must employ a range of information sources and a diversity of viewpoints.

Negative assumptions based on bad thinking

The other trap we can fall into with assumptions is bad thinking. By that I mean we can have wrong assumptions that are embedded, often unconsciously, in our minds. These beliefs often come from bad experiences or negative things that have been said to us in our past. If someone calls you “stupid” then you can start to believe it. We can start to believe these are facts when they are, at best, just subjective ideas.

Negative assumptions are often tied up with our feelings of self-worth. For example, you could be attracted to someone but afraid to ask them out on a date. You might be thinking “I am not good enough for them” or “they are out of my league.” These were certainly my thoughts when I met one particularly beautiful girl back in college. When I spoke about her with my friends, even they thought I was trying to bat above my average (thanks guys!) Fortunately, I overcame this wrong thinking (and bad advice) and nearly 20 years later I am still happily married to that wonderful woman.

“The most tenacious block to new ideas is limiting assumptions.” 

Nancy Kline

We all have hang-ups and insecurities that clog our neural pathways. The author and coach Nancy Kline calls these blockages in our minds limiting assumptions. Limiting assumptions stop us from thinking and acting properly. In my experience, a large part of coaching is listening out for such internal defeater-beliefs and asking incisive questions to help clear them away. And if you don’t have a coach to talk through your decision then ask yourself, what assumptions am I making that are just subjective thoughts?

We all must make a philosophical choice about what we choose to believe. Take a good look at what you think is true; examine it and test it before you make a decision – particularly an important one – based on that assumption.

The four steps to testing assumptions

As we have seen, assumptions are often necessary for decision-making but wrong assumptions can lead to poor choices and bad outcomes.

So, if we want to avoid poor assumptions follow these four steps:

• First, separate out assumption from fact.
• Second, only use an assumption in the appropriate context.
• Third, don’t make an assumption based on bad information or selected through bias.
• Fourthly, examine your beliefs to ensure they are not just limiting assumptions based on wrong thinking.

If we make these checks then we are much more likely to be able to make a good decision. You can start with a choice you have to make today. Have a think through the four steps. What assumptions are you making and are they rational?

And remember, as decision-making guru Darren Matthew observes,

“Your important decisions will work better with fewer assumptions.”