Saying that someone is biased is often used as criticism. We point out when someone obviously favours a person or thing more than another. Bias is synonymous with being prejudiced and that has even more negative connotations. Being prejudiced means having an opinion not based on reason or reality. Thinking of that sort leads to bad judgements. In other words, we associate bias with poor thinking and bad decision-making.

But here is the kicker. We are all biased.

The scientific truth about bias

The definition of cognitive bias is:

“The way a particular person understands events, facts, and other people, which is based on their own particular set of beliefs and experiences and may not be reasonable or accurate.”

So, bias has an individual flavour to its complexity, but research has shown that there are some common trends as to how our bias manifests. In the ever-increasing body of scientific study about cognitive bias, the best place to start is with Daniel Kahneman’s book, Thinking Fast and Slow.

To explain the title, fast thinking (also called system 1 thinking) is the intuitive, often unconscious judgements that we make. Slow thinking (or system 2 thinking) is the more (seemingly) logical, conscious thought process that we employ. Neither system is better than the other, they are just different. Kahneman’s research shows that both systems are influenced by cognitive biases, and we generally choose to ignore these influences in our decision-making.

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.”

Daniel Kahneman

The brain is mind-blowing 

Therefore, bias affects all thinking, and decision-making is just one such thought process influenced by cognitive biases.

The way the brain works when making choices is a marvel of creation. The neural substrates that support our decision-making are not fully understood but, when we make choices, our brain is a light storm of synaptic activity, igniting the prefrontal cortex and pulsing out into the hippocampus, posterior parietal cortex and striatum.

Even before we know we are thinking, our network is leaping into action. Dendrites are stimulated and neurons are firing signals through the axons to other neurons at an astonishing rate.

Ironically, thinking about decision-making like this is mind-boggling!

Thinking of the brain simply as a computer is a poor analogy but, as with computer processing, the brain loves speed. And, to be as fast as possible, firing neurons love to take shortcuts. These shortcuts can help us make judgements at much greater velocities, but as I have already talked about with heuristics, these shortcuts can get us into trouble at times. They have nearly killed me on occasion! Closely linked to heuristics and these shortcuts are cognitive biases.

An example of my biases laid bare

I was wondering how to illustrate the effect of bias on our thinking and decisions and then something happened to me that made me examine many of my own biases. Let me share it with you.

Simon Sinek is one of my favourite writers and speakers and earlier this year Simon Sinek gave a talk about work and how we should love what we do. As ever, Simon’s message was heartfelt and compelling. There was so much I could agree with. I generally do love my work. As a leader, I want the people who work for me to love what they do, and I feel the responsibility for creating that psychologically safe environment where people do feel supported and allowed to flourish.

The funny thing was that I had a little niggle in the back of my head, telling me something was not quite right. So, I watched it again. Afterwards, reflecting on what Mr Sinek was saying, I was able to identify what had got my spider-sense tingling.

What makes a statement true and why do we believe it?

There were a couple of statements that I started to re-examine. The first one is:

“It is a right, it is a God-given right, that we should love where we work.”

Simon Sinek

As Simon says those words my heart is saying “Amen brother!” but my head is saying, “Is that actually true?”

So, I examine the statement again, leaning on the wisdom of others and the power of logical syllogism. The philosopher Karl Popper would start by pointing out that the statement is a non-scientific fact. The statement is not phrased as a logical premise, and it cannot be disproven by scientific means.

If you add theologians into the mix, they will point out that holy books such as the Bible or Koran don’t exactly say that loving work is a God-given right. The emphasis is on loving God and other people rather than work itself.

So, let’s use Simon Sinek’s own advice and “start with why” when we think about his statement. Why does he say that? The statement is actually a rhetorical device, used for emphasis and emotional response. And in those terms, it achieves its ends. But that leaves the question, why do I want the statement to be true, even if it isn’t a fact?

12 common cognitive biases in under 2 minutes

This is where we come to the flaws in my processing. My thinking is being influenced by multiple biases at once.

The first thing that I am experiencing is the Halo effect. In other words, I am likely to agree with whatever Simon Sinek says because I like and respect him. I expect him to be right. There is also an immediate anchoring effect too because when I see Simon Sinek, I think of Start With Why, a book I really enjoy. Therefore, I am expecting to like what he says.

Sinek is also a leadership guru and talks about things I care about, so I am also suffering from In-group bias, where I favour other leadership geeks; we are the same tribe. Hot on the heels of these preconceptions is groupthink. The interviewer and the people in the audience all seem to be nodding and smiling. I want to go with the consensus. What’s more, no one is challenging what he is saying so there is also a bystander effect. I am not going to make myself look stupid and say something might be wrong if they all seem to agree with him.

Yes, there are more biases yet!

Next is optimism bias. Simon Sinek is a self-proclaimed optimist, so it is not surprising that his message is alluringly optimistic. Also, I want it to be true – as I want to love all my work all the time – so confirmation bias creeps in. I hold to the belief that we can love work, so I start to suffer from belief bias too. I am also suffering from the just-world hypothesis by expecting things to be fair and for people to get what they deserve. Unfortunately, that is not reality.

That one line of logical fallacy is wrapped up amongst a host of other statements that I agree with and so there is also a framing effect. What I see as the validity of the whole talk influences the context in which I judge any one phrase.

And there is more. As I learn more about leadership, the more I realise that there is so much I don’t know. This is the Dunning-Kruger effect. So, I want to learn, and Simon Sinek is an expert I respect, so I naturally doubt the limits of my own knowledge. When I think about my own abilities, I have a negativity bias and suffer from imposter syndrome; therefore, I doubt myself even more.

The tip of the cognitive iceberg

So, I managed at least 12 cognitive biases in the space of two minutes. And that’s just the ones I can easily identify. There are many more biases and if you would like an introduction to a few more of the common ones then I recommend you visit yourbias.is

So, what am I trying to say? That what Simon Sinek says is bad? No, far from it. I remain a fan even if I cannot agree with every single thing he says. And that is fair enough, I don’t think I would agree with everything that has come out of my own mouth if I could only remember things accurately (rather than suffering from misinformation bias)!

The example I used was to demonstrate the dizzying quantity of cognitive biases that can be at play every time we think about something.

You are biased, but don’t panic. Reflect.

The takeaway point is that bias affects us all, all the time. And the tricky thing about bias is that it is hard to spot in ourselves (although seemingly we are able to spot it more easily in other people!)

“We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.”

Daniel Kahneman

If we want to think clearly and make effective decisions, we need to be aware. We cannot avoid cognitive bias but, if you are aware of your thought processes, you can reflect and critique your own thinking.

You can put your newfound knowledge into practice by having another look at the Simon Sinek interview yourself. There is much to enjoy in what he says but there is also at least one more logical fallacy or false statement in there. Can you identify what it is?

And, when you scroll through your social media today think about your reactions to what you are seeing. How are you being influenced? Which biases can you identify in your own thinking?

Congratulations! You are creating the foundations for better thinking and more effective decisions.

Assumptions are often necessary for decision-making, but we need to avoid wrong suppositions if we want to make the right choices. We can get things wrong by applying assumptions in inappropriate circumstances, basing expectations on bad data, or making assumptions based on wrong thinking.

I have experienced the results of decisons made on poor assumptions and, in the process, learnt a lot about how best to avoid them.

A truly immersive cinema experience

I was in my room, watching the Lord of the Rings (The Return of the King) on my laptop. I had my earphones in and, despite the small screen, I was gripped. It was the battle of Minas Tirith, and the city was surrounded by an evil horde of orcs with their siege engines. As the army attacked the city and the rocks flew from the catapults, pounding the citadel I could almost feel the walls shaking. Another huge stone soared through the air to strike. Boom! My chair wobbled.

The sound on my laptop was good but I had definitely felt something. I took out my earphones and listened. The was a crashing sound, this time from outside my room, not from my computer.

Bother I thought, we are under attack.

This was a fair assumption as I was in a military base just outside Basra in 2004. It just turned out that, in a weird bit of synchronicity, that the local militants had decided to attack our base with rockets, just when I was enjoying a bit of downtime and watching a movie. Very inconsiderate of them I thought.

So, I put on my helmet and body armour and – doing my best to exude calm – walked out of my room into the chaos outside, then headed to the operations room. All the while I was thinking, “we expected to be welcomed; we were coming to help after all.”  How wrong we were!

Assumptions, decision-making and planning

There is a phrase about presuppositions, famous in military circles:

“Assumptions are the mother of all f***-ups”

Anon

This is not entirely true, but it does highlight the fact that bad assumptions can have disastrous effects. In the Army, when judgements often have life or death implications, making a wrong assumption could be fatal, as I nearly found out while working as a bomb disposal officer in Africa. And again now, in Iraq, it was turning out that the decisions and planning were based on some very poor assumptions. As a result, the situation was a mess.

What is an assumption and are all assumptions bad?

An assumption is something we accept to be true, even if we are lacking all the evidence. But assumptions are not necessarily bad. We sometimes need to make assumptions in decision-making as we cannot have absolutely all the information we want or need when making a choice.

For example, when I go to buy a flat white from a coffee shop, then I assume that the barista knows how to make one. I will probably look for information to back up that assumption such as, whether they list a flat white on the menu. To reduce the risk of the assumption I might also employ a heuristic (a decision-making hack), such as going to a shop I know and trust, to reduce the risk of getting a bad coffee. In this case, the assumption and the heuristic are sound. However, if I employed that same assumption in the wrong place, for example, a Turkish coffee house in Istanbul, then I might be disappointed when it comes to a flat white. Not only that, but I would also be missing out on some excellent Turkish coffee due to my bias for flat whites!

So, we can make assumptions in our thinking but first, we need to separate out what is a fact and what is an assumption. Once we identified an assumption then we must be sure it is a reasonable one, particularly if we take an assumption we often make and then apply it to a new context.

Assumptions based on inaccurate information

Some assumptions are not just applied to the wrong situation, they are based on corrupt data in the first place. We can compound the problem by then taking this inaccurate or limited information and then processing it poorly, due to cognitive bias. Going back to my earlier story, this was certainly the case with the war in Iraq.

Donald Rumsfeld, the American politician, famously said:

“Because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.”

There is a lot of wisdom there; although it is unfortunate that Rumsfeld himself did not pay enough attention to his own advice. It turns out, what were thought to be knowns were not knowns at all. They were a mixture of assumptions and wishful thinking.

In 2003, a bunch of bad assumptions, built on poor information, resulted in the US-led coalition intervening in Iraq and deposing Saddam Hussein. The intelligence cited in the ‘dodgy dossier’ has long been challenged. The evidence was based not just on bad information but was also warped by cognitive bias.

Bad assumptions just breed further wrong assumptions

And these assumptions and biases played out at every level. I deployed to Iraq fully believing that we wouldunearth weapons of mass destruction at any moment. For me the logic was simple. Saddam Hussein had used chemical weapons before, in the Iran-Iraq war and even against his own people. Therefore, when I heard that he still had weapons of mass destruction that made perfect sense. Apart from the fact he didn’t. We were suffering from narrative bias, amongst other things.

One of the populations who suffered from these chemical weapons and other persecution were the Shia tribes in Southern Iraq. So, we assumed a welcome after Saddam was removed and we went to rebuild Southern Iraq. This was positivity bias at the very least, but also a massive lack of true understanding. It did not take many months, or many rocket attacks and roadside bombs, to realise quite how wrong our assumptions were.

So, we must not apply our assumptions to the wrong situation. Nor do we make assumptions on bad data. And that means not being selective in the information one chooses to consider. To reduce the negative effects of cognitive bias we must employ a range of information sources and a diversity of viewpoints.

Negative assumptions based on bad thinking

The other trap we can fall into with assumptions is bad thinking. By that I mean we can have wrong assumptions that are embedded, often unconsciously, in our minds. These beliefs often come from bad experiences or negative things that have been said to us in our past. If someone calls you “stupid” then you can start to believe it. We can start to believe these are facts when they are, at best, just subjective ideas.

Negative assumptions are often tied up with our feelings of self-worth. For example, you could be attracted to someone but afraid to ask them out on a date. You might be thinking “I am not good enough for them” or “they are out of my league.” These were certainly my thoughts when I met one particularly beautiful girl back in college. When I spoke about her with my friends, even they thought I was trying to bat above my average (thanks guys!) Fortunately, I overcame this wrong thinking (and bad advice) and nearly 20 years later I am still happily married to that wonderful woman.

“The most tenacious block to new ideas is limiting assumptions.” 

Nancy Kline

We all have hang-ups and insecurities that clog our neural pathways. The author and coach Nancy Kline calls these blockages in our minds limiting assumptions. Limiting assumptions stop us from thinking and acting properly. In my experience, a large part of coaching is listening out for such internal defeater-beliefs and asking incisive questions to help clear them away. And if you don’t have a coach to talk through your decision then ask yourself, what assumptions am I making that are just subjective thoughts?

We all must make a philosophical choice about what we choose to believe. Take a good look at what you think is true; examine it and test it before you make a decision – particularly an important one – based on that assumption.

The four steps to testing assumptions

As we have seen, assumptions are often necessary for decision-making but wrong assumptions can lead to poor choices and bad outcomes.

So, if we want to avoid poor assumptions follow these four steps:

• First, separate out assumption from fact.
• Second, only use an assumption in the appropriate context.
• Third, don’t make an assumption based on bad information or selected through bias.
• Fourthly, examine your beliefs to ensure they are not just limiting assumptions based on wrong thinking.

If we make these checks then we are much more likely to be able to make a good decision. You can start with a choice you have to make today. Have a think through the four steps. What assumptions are you making and are they rational?

And remember, as decision-making guru Darren Matthew observes,

“Your important decisions will work better with fewer assumptions.”

 

What is the most important decision you have ever made? It might have been choosing your romantic partner, selecting your school, or deciding upon your career. How did you make that decision? Whatever process you applied – consciously or otherwise – to your choice, that decision was informed by your personal values. This is what values-based decision-making or principle-based decision-making is all about; understanding how our precepts and beliefs inform our judgements.

Why is values-based decision-making important?

We might think that our biggest decisions would be based upon pure logic and critical reasoning, but we would be wrong. Just think for a moment; if your spouse or partner asked you why you wanted to be with them, how would you reply? Would you immediately say,

“well I considered the factors, and – following an analytical process – decided that you were the most rational choice of partner, presenting the best statistical chance of a successful union (given the limited alternatives)”?

I doubt that would get a kindly reception.

You are more likely to answer that it is because you love them. But then you must think about the follow-up question of why do you love them? When you explore that question you can see that, knowingly, or otherwise, you have made a values-based decision. The reasons for loving someone are bound up with your principles, beliefs, and passions.

When I first started to think about decision-making, during my time as a bomb disposal officer, I did use to think that decision-making was largely a rational process. It took some near-death experiences for me to realise that the neuroscience of decision-making is much more complicated. Slowly I came to appreciate the important psychology of heuristics and bias, as well as understanding the importance of assumptions and how values underpin our decision-making.

Values, principles, and ethics in decision-making

The book that introduced me to the concept of principle-based decision making was The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. Stephen Covey points out:

“We are not in control, principles control. We control our actions, but the consequences that flow from these actions are controlled by Principles.”

Stephen R Covey 

So, the fact is that – whether we know it or not – our personal values drive our decision-making and influence the choices we make. But this is not a new discovery and Covey was not alone in this idea. For example, Gandhi said,

“Your values become your destiny.”

Gandhi

And this school of thought goes back much further. The idea of making right judgements is the field of ethics in philosophy. In Western philosophy, it was Socrates, Plato and Aristotle – the so-called founding fathers of ethics – who started this tradition.

Ethical decision-making is not just about choices in medicine (such as when to end care) or complex moral conundrums faced by society (such as assisted suicide). You cannot separate ethics from personal values and our everyday behaviour. As well as the moral code of the society we live in, we all have our own inner sense of morality that informs our actions. The ability to make these choices, according to our values is inextricably tied to our understanding of freedom. Aristotle summed it up this way:

“Freedom is obedience to self-formulated rules.”

Aristotle

How do values influence our choices?

My favourite analogy for personal values is that they are like a compass. The whole point of a magnetic compass is that it points to the North, no matter which way we are facing. Even when we cannot see properly – for example when stuck in fog or deep in a jungle – the compass gives us reliable data about our direction.

Personal values do the same for us. Whatever our circumstances, our values are an inner compass, informing us of whether the direction we are choosing is in line with principles or not.

“I have learned that as long as I hold fast to my beliefs and values – and follow my own moral compass – then the only expectations I need to live up to are my own.”

Michelle Obama

To complete the analogy, it is worth remembering that a compass can be affected by magnetic interference and occasionally not be trusted. In the same way, even our moral compass can be thrown off by cognitive bias. That is why no one aspect of decision-making can be considered without respect to other facets. We must be aware of all the various neural processes if we really want to make good decisions.

Values in decision-making for organisations 

Ray Dalio is an expert in how values affect decision-making in an organisation. In his book, Principles, he shares the values that he has identified and implemented – both in personal and business life. What makes Ray Dalio’s company Bridgewater, so impressive is the way they have built their values into the very fabric of the business.

For many organisations, their company values are just nice-sounding universal values (such as trust or creativity) that have been decided upon by an executive, but with little thought to how these values should truly affect the culture of an organisation. Many employees can barely remember their company values, let alone explain how they should inform their judgements and behaviours. Not so at Bridgewater.

Building a company from the values up

At Bridgewater, not only did they identify the company values, but they also then built organisational processes to reflect those principles, even writing code to embed these principles into automated decision-making. With each decision made these values are tested, the results examined, and the algorithms refined in a constant process of improvement.

This approach, backed up by the transparent way Bridgewater makes choices, empowers people at every level in the business to make decisions. Decision-making is not the preserve of management or the executive suite. At Bridgewater, this empowerment has fuelled effectiveness, growth and profitability.

As Roy Disney, the co-founder of another values-driven company observes,

“It’s not hard to make decisions when you know what your values are.”

Roy Disney

It is worth reflecting upon. What are the principles of your organisation and how do they inform processes? Do the actions and behaviours of employees reflect the core values? Are people empowered to make decisions?

Principle-based leadership

This sort of organisation is led by a leader who understands the importance of values; someone who knows their own principles and lives according to them. We call that integrity; someone who walks the talk, and integrity is one of the most frequently listed essential traits of a leader.

Stephen Covey wrote about this sort of leadership in his other popular book, The Principle-Centred Leader, but this approach to leadership also has a lot in common with servant leadership, transformational leadership and authentic leadership, all of which emphasize leaders of moral principle and purpose.

So how do you start?

So, having seen that understanding personal values is important as they affect our choices, what do we do about it? The first step in making better decisions is to identify the principles that guide you in your judgements. This will help both you and the people you work with. As Ray Dalio points out,

“The most important thing is that you develop your own principles and ideally write them down, especially if you are working with others.”

Ray Dalio

Take a moment to think. Can you write down your top values? Try to think of the top principles that you adhere to. I recommend 5 to 10 as a maximum. If you are a bit stuck then there are various tools, exercises that can help you do this and if you would like some help then read my post on What Are Your Personal Values?

A resolution is just another word for a decision. But a resolution has a particular weight to it. It is a firm decision, a choice to resolve a problem, something we are resolute about doing.

But many people fail in their New Year Resolutions. So how do you set yourself up for success? From my experience of achieving my personal goals, plus coaching many clients through achieving their aims, I would offer 5 Ps to help make a successful resolution: psychology, prioritising, principles, process, and people.

Psychology

There is a reason that New Year’s resolutions are popular. Psychologically the New Year represents new opportunities. Even though in reality it is just a date, mentally it is like being presented with a fresh blank canvas. A fresh new year, a new calendar with 12 full months to look forward to; giving us the feeling that we can achieve something new.

What’s more, having (hopefully) had a break over the holidays we bring a fresh perspective to what we want to do. It is hard to make decisions and life changes in the busyness of work and normal life. A vacation gives us distance from our responsibilities, and a chance to reflect on where we are and where we are going. Therefore, this break in regular activity presents an opportunity for changing direction.

But if you want to make the most of this psychological advantage and set yourself up for success, you need to make the resolution before the New Year. The decision and plan need to be ready so you can start immediately. Trying to make important life decisions, when you have a sore head on New Year’s Day, is perhaps not the best way to go about things! Equally, if you leave your planning until you are going back to work it is likely the resolution will get lost in your old patterns and routine. So, start thinking and planning now.

Prioritise 

Most people have lots of goals and things they want to achieve. It would be very easy to make multiple resolutions and try to succeed in as many of these aims as possible, but that would be a mistake.

If you want the best chance of succeeding, you need focus. Therefore, you must choose the most important, most impactful resolution, out of all the things you might want to do. Don’t let the good be the enemy of the great. Prioritise your goals and put all your energy and effort towards the top one.

Principles 

One of the best ways to prioritise your goals is by examining your personal principles. This is because we are much more likely to see through a decision if it is in line with our values. Understanding principles helps to answer why you want to see a resolution through.

And you need to be honest with yourself and find the underlying reason as to why you want to do something. We often mask our real reasons from ourselves or others, but if you want to succeed you need to be brutally honest with yourself.

For example, your resolution might be to get fit. But why do you want to get into shape? Is it health, a desire to compete, a loss of body confidence or something else? Keep asking why until you really know the root motivation for what you are doing.

It is important to understand the why that underpins our motivation, as success in any goal or mission in life, is largely down to willpower. Our will is reinforced by beliefs, and our beliefs are reflected in our values and principles. If you have not thought about what your personal values are then that is a good thing to do before you choose any goal or resolution.

Process

When you have identified your most important life goal and why you want to achieve it the next step is to create a process.

A process is just a series of steps. The best plans identify the next small step to take, making it easy to progress. The will to take the incremental steps that lead to success is down to discipline. But a process, and particularly a process that becomes a habit, helps to reinforce our willpower.

If you want to get fit have a plan. It is highly likely that whatever aim you set yourself, someone will have succeeded in it before. By definition that makes it a simple type of problem. A simple problem does not mean guaranteed success, but it does mean that other people have overcome the same issue. So, learn from them. Find the best practice for achieving that specific goal. Take that blueprint and make it your own.

And don’t get disheartened if things don’t go exactly to plan or you struggle with your new habit. This is why most people fail in their resolutions. At the first setback, they decide to give up. Change your mindset. Take on a growth mindset: each failure is just a learning opportunity. Reflect on what happened and ask yourself, what went wrong? Creating new habits is a process of experimentation so analyse what happened and then try something new and go again. And again. And keep going.

This is effectively the Kolb learning cycle. You do something (a concrete experience), you review what happened (reflective observation), you make your conclusions (abstract conceptualisation) and then you try out a new idea (active experimentation). If the only thing you succeed in this year is embedding this process into your mental toolbox, then you will have achieved something great no matter what!

People 

The final P is for people. We have already seen that other people can help by providing plans if they have already achieved the same thing that you want to. So, once you have decided upon your resolution, start by finding out who else has successfully achieved the same goal.  If you can, then compare different people’s approaches and work out which one would best work for you. Better still, speak to them in person, get their experience and advice first-hand.

Then find someone to be accountable to. You are much more likely to fulfil your resolution if you share your goal with someone else and ask them to keep you on track. That person could be a friend, a colleague or a coach; it just needs to be someone who will challenge you and not let you off the hook.

For example, when I was training for an ultra-marathon, I got a training partner. There were plenty of days when I did not feel like putting in the hard miles, but it was much harder to cancel a training session than do it when there was another person involved. The result was I trained effectively, and I successfully completed the race. Find someone who can do the same for you.

The 5 Ps of a successful New Year’s Resolution

There is no shortage of advice about New Year’s Resolutions, whether it is making them or avoiding them completely! But remember, a resolution is just a decision. You can make a decision to pursue a life goal at any time but there are some benefits to starting at the turn of the seasons.

These 5 Ps will give you the best chance of achieving your aim:

• Use the psychology of the New Year and new beginnings to your advantage
• Prioritise what you want to achieve. Focus on the most important thing.
• Make sure the goal is in line with your principles.
• Create a process to reinforce your resolution. You need a solid habit to succeed.
• Find people who can support you and keep you accountable.

And remember, don’t wait. Start thinking and planning now so you are ready for the New Year. Don’t leave it until you are drinking bubbly and singing auld lang syne!

May you have a productive and successful 2022, fulfilling your resolutions and achieving your dreams!

Season’s greetings and happy holidays!

Which mental models (if any) do you use to make decisions? There is a lot to choose from. Do you know the best decision-making tools for each situation?

Over the years I have been taught, and then tried and tested many decision-making approaches. I have also researched, adapted, and even invented a few others along the way.

In writing this recent series of articles on decision-making, I thought I would collate and share the decision-making heuristics, processes, and approaches that I use the most. These are all tools that I find the most helpful, whether making decisions in a personal context or in my work as a leader, strategy consultant and executive coach.

Having experimented with these approaches in different situations over the years I have found certain models that are my ‘go to’ tools for certain circumstances. Therefore, I have grouped the tools by context. I hope you find some familiar faces and new friends among the models below.

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For easing or improving simple choices

Take a chance

It really is not worth sweating the small stuff. If choice really does not matter, then just flip a coin (if it is a binary decision) or roll some dice (if there are multiple options). This approach can seem flippant (pun intended) but can also provide deeper insight. Once you have flipped or rolled then reflect on how you feel about the result. If you are overly disappointed at the result, then maybe you cared more about the decision than you admitted to yourself. If this is the case, you might want to reconsider.

Replace the decision

If it is a simple decision, then replace it with an automatic process or quick heuristic (rule of thumb). We can spend a lot of time each day thinking about what to wear, what to eat, or what to do. Creating routines reduces these decisions to allow time and energy for more important decisions.

Make a habit

To reinforce good decisions, we need good habits. In order to develop good habits, we need to assess the process of stimulus and response. I favour Charles Duhigg’s model, the habit loop when analysing and experimenting with developing new habits. Work out:

• The cue – the stimuli
• The routine – the response or required action
• The reward – the payoff gained or gratification from the activity

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For when you need more information to decide

Ask a trusted person

If in doubt, phone a friend! And don’t just ask friends. What you want when making a choice is informed – and sometimes critical – thought. Friends and family can often tell you want to hear, rather than what you need to hear. So, ask a person who will give you a straight answer. That might even be a competitor or someone you don’t get on with. If it is a complex issue, then ask several different people. The more diverse the group of people the more useful the data will be for informing your decision.

Rub your nose against it

In the military, there is a saying that “time spent in reconnaissance is seldom wasted.” In other words, if you are deciding what to do, there is nothing quite as good as seeing the ground for yourself. In mountaineering, there is a similar phrase, that you should “rub your nose against the mountain” before deciding. Things can look very different when you are up close to them. So, if you have an important decision to make, try to get an immersive experience to inform you. See it, try it. Engage the senses, then decide.

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For when you need to commit

Get accountable

If you need to choose and stick to your decision then make yourself accountable to someone. Many people use a professional coach for this, but you can use someone else, as long as you trust them not to let you off the hook!

Put your money where your mouth is

Put money against your decision to make it stick. There are even apps now that allow you to put up a sum of money that goes to charity if you fail in your decision or goal. The money is controlled by a trusted third party who can release the cash back if you see your decision through. George Halachev has an article on Better Humans with 6 you could try.

Announce first, decide later

If you are still unsure of your exact choice but still want to commit, then you can set a self-imposed deadline. Announce publicly that you are to going to share your decision on a particular date. This does not need to be a press release, it could be just to friends, colleagues, or family, but it is much harder to go back on a choice when it is shared (just ask any government!) A deadline also helps to focus the mind.

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For big or important decisions

Consider consequences

If you are trying to work out if a decision is significant then it is worth thinking through the consequences. The importance of a choice is relative to its impact. Ask yourself, what is the worst that can happen? Then ask, is this decision reversible? If the impact is small or the decision is reversible then you should not delay. As Darren Matthews recommends, ask where will this decision take us?

Personal values

Knowingly or unknowingly, we make many decisions based on our individual beliefs. Our most important decisions – such as whom we want to marry or spend our life with – are informed by our principles. We may differ from someone in skills and interests but be bonded by precepts. Therefore, it is important to work out your own personal values. The hardest decisions in life are often the ones where our values are in tension with one another. If you understand that tension you can find ways to choose.

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For judgements based on your personality 

The Big 5 personality traits

As well as knowing personal values it is important to understand our personality type. This helps us play to our strengths and compensate for our weaknesses when we make decisions. There are plenty of psychometric tools available to help but my preferred model is the Big 5 or OCEAN model. This assesses your personality across five factors:

• Openness to experience (curious vs cautious)
• Conscientiousness (efficient vs extravagant)
• Extraversion (outgoing vs reserved)
• Agreeableness (compassionate vs critical)
• Neuroticism (sensitive vs resilient)

There are plenty of free tests you can do online, just do a quick search and try one.

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For rational decision-making

Consider factors

When assessing a choice rationally, work out what the key factors are that affect the decision. For example, when buying a home these might be things like location, type of property, number of rooms, access to transport etc.

Weighted factors

Once you have a long list of factors you will likely find that some factors are more important than others. For example, as per the example above, the location might be more important than the exact type of property. Therefore, give greater weight to more important factors. If you were scoring your options, you can multiply a factor’s scores relative to their importance.

Pros and cons

Once you have worked out the factors influencing a decision and weighted them, you are still likely to have different options to choose from. To approach the decision logically, consider the pros (advantages) and cons (disadvantages) of each course of action you can take.

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For a faster decision-making process

The OODA loop

If you want to speed up decision-making for you, your team or your organisation then you can use the OODA loop to analyse your processes. OODA represents a decision-making cycle in its basic form. It stands for observe, orientate, decide and act; the key steps of decision-making. By studying the cycle, working through each stage of the process, you can identify where you are faster or slower in making choices. Then you can identify ways to speed up that element of the cycle.

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For generative and creative thinking

Mindmapping

When making notes I tend to use mindmaps. These are particularly good in assisting decision-making as they keep to one page, forcing you to crystallise and prioritise information. Having the data branch out from the central concept also allows links to be made between ideas that might not have been seen in linear notes.

The Thinking Environment

The best way to help someone make a decision is to help them to think clearly. Nancy Kline developed the principles of the Thinking Environment based on research and practice over the course of 30 years. The components of the Thinking Environment include attention, equality, ease, appreciation, encouragement, information, feelings, diversity, incisive questions, andplace. And the most important thing we can do: give people our full attention and really listen (without interrupting) when they are trying to think.

The 6 Thinking Hats

Edward de Bono, the advocate of lateral thought, developed the 6 hats approach to considering problems. The idea is to look at the problem from 6 different perspectives that are represented by 6 coloured hats. The hats are:

• White hat – analytical and fact-based
• Red hat – emotional and subjective
• Black hat – critical and sceptical, identifying risks
• Yellow hat – optimistic, looking at best case
• Green hat – creative, brainstorming
• Blue hat – the big picture, structured and strategic

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For choosing life goals and improving work-life balance

The Wheel of Life

The wheel of life is a great way to look at life balance. You simply draw a circle and divide it into segments (usually 8). Name each segment after a role or aspect of life. These could include family, health, work, learning, leisure, finance, relationships, spirituality for example. Then score and mark up each element; a zero being the centre of the circle, 10 being the outside. You now have a visual representation of which aspects of life you want to improve.

The GROW model

The GROW model is one of the most common coaching tools for choosing and refining life goals. GROW stands for goal, reality, options and will and is applied in this way:

• Goal – define and state the aim
• Reality – analyse the present situation and how that affects the goal
• Options – consider different courses of action and any obstacles that stand in the way
• Will – make the decision and commit to it

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For choosing a vocation or career

The perfect day

When coaching people through a career change, the first exercise I recommend is writing out their idea of a perfect day. This dream – developed in detail from the moment of waking, to going to sleep – is a powerful way to inform what future work-life balance should look like.

Writing your eulogy 

The second exercise is to write your own eulogy. This might sound morbid but, writing a fictional version of what you would want to be said at your funeral, or written as your obituary, changes your perspective from the here and now, to the end of life. This challenges short-term ideas of success and reveals longer lasting values. These exercises are surprisingly powerful.

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For situational awareness and deciding upon a strategy

The 5Ws

The 5Ws approach uses interrogative words starting with a w (why, where, what, who, when). The H of howis usually added to this list and I have found that adding which is very helpful too in decision-making. It is a technique I was taught as a bomb disposal officer. The idea with the 5Ws is that you list the question words and use them as triggers or prompts for questions related to the problem. For example, the whereinterrogative can prompt inquiries such as where have we come from, where are we now and where are we going?

The SWOT analysis

Ok, so you are very likely to know the SWOT analysis but don’t discount it just because it is common. There is a good reason why it is so popular. SWOT – as you may know – stands for strengths, weaknesses,opportunities, and threats and is generally drawn as a 2-by-2 matrix. The SWOT is a quick and effective way to get a snapshot of a situation, by brainstorming the critical points in each quadrant. It was developed with organisational strategy in mind, but I have also found it useful for individuals too. Some of the best insights come from identifying relationships between the quadrants.

The Hedgehog Concept

As well as being an entrepreneur in my own right I have worked in and with many start-ups. When working with growing businesses, developing strategy, one of the most insightful tools I have used is the one set out by Jim Collins in his bestselling book Good to Great. It is what he calls the Hedgehog Concept, based on the Greek parable that says “the fox knows many things but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” The model is drawn as a Venn diagram; three circles that encompass three questions:

• What are you deeply passionate about?
• What can you be the best in the world at?
• What drives your economic engine?

There will be various answers to these questions but when the answers align, in the centre, is the answer to what you should be focussing on.

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For productivity and prioritisation

The Eisenhower matrix

Another well-known tool, the Eisenhower matrix uses a 2-by-2 grid as per the SWOT analysis but this time the matrix relates to two axes: what is important and what is urgent. This creates four fields that you can sort your tasks into, and what you should do about them:

1. Urgent and important – do them now
2. Not urgent but important – plan them into your diary
3. Urgent but not-important – try to delegate these to someone else
4. Not urgent or important – try to avoid or reduce these activities

The Pareto principle

The Pareto principle – or 80:20 rule – is a simple rule of thumb for inputs and outputs. The idea is that 80 per cent of our productivity and profit is likely to come from 20 per cent of our work or client base. It is an easy but effective way of assessing where you should focus your time and energy.

Be more Steve

Productivity largely comes down to good prioritisation and Steve Jobs used to ask himself one critical question every time he had to choose what to do next. He asked, “if you could do just one thing, what would it be?” In other words, what is the single most important, impactful way you can use your next block of time? Do that. Be more Steve.

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For when you want to delegate tasks and evaluate decisions

SMARTER tasks

A ‘SMART’ task is one that is specific, measurable, attainable, relevant and time-bound. This is good to remember for your own goals. But people often forget to use the SMARTER framework that adds evaluateand re-evaluate to the SMART acronym. This allows for the assessment and, if necessary the adjustment, of decisions and plans as the situation progresses. Don’t just be SMART, be SMARTER when you set goals.

Traffic lights

There are lots of ways to review decisions, assess projects and identify lessons but my favourite method is the traffic light approach. It is based on three simple questions to consider after an event:

• Red – what should we stop doing?
• Amber – what should we continue doing?
• Green – what should we start doing?

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For defining the challenge and problem-solving

The Cynefin framework

Problems are not made equal and if we wrongly identify the type of issue we are facing then we can make the situation worse, not better. The Cynefin framework helps us define problems and therefore assess the correct approach.

• Clear problems are simple and have tried and tested best practice solutions
• Complicated problems can be assessed using first principles and good practice
• Complex problems are new, emergent issues that require an experimental approach
• Chaotic problems require swift action to create enough order to move the problem into another quadrant

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For choosing the right leadership or management style

The Grint Model

Keith Grint’s model relates different leadership approaches to varying problem types, but in a more simplified way than the Cynefin framework. The Grint method says that for:

• Tame problems, that have known solutions, use a tested plan and manage the process
• Critical problems, where there is crisis or time is limited, then command and provide quick, clear direction
• Wicked problems, where there are no simple or good responses, then lead, providing a clear vision and empowering people to deal with complexity

Situational leadership

Another related model is the situational leadership model developed by Kenneth Blanchard. The model assesses the circumstances and the capability of the team to guide the leader into either:

• Directing – when time is critical, or team confidence is low
• Delegating – when teams are capable to do the task with little management
• Supporting – where trust is high, and teams can mutually support one another
• Coaching – when individuals might need focussed support to develop confidence

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For choosing and developing a team

The 3Cs

When choosing a team member, I refer back to the 3Cs or character, competence and chemistry, recommended by Bill Hybels in his book Courageous Leadership. These 3Cs should be considered in that order when hiring because:

• Character is hardest to develop, and bad characters can do you the most harm
• Competence is important but people (especially of the right character) can develop this
• Chemistry is less important. It is great to like people but hiring people just because they are similar to us is not the recipe for a successful team, as we shall see in the next model.

The Belbin Team Roles

Meredith Belbin conducted research over a couple of decades that identified the 9 critical roles that are needed within any team. Some people have preferences for certain roles, but each function is critical to success. Whatever size of the team this model will help you work out what needs to be done and who is best to fulfil each role (if you know your people). The titles and descriptions are as follows:

• Plants are highly creative and good at solving problems
• Resource Investigators connect with the world outside the team, bringing in external views on opportunities and competition
• Monitor Evaluators provide a logical, impartial view and help to weigh up options
• Co-ordinators focus on the objective and delegate tasks to team members
• Implementers plan and manage a workable strategy
• Completer Finishers bring high standards, see errors, and add polish to the final solution
• Team workers help the team gel and identify things that need doing to help the team
• Shapers challenge and provide momentum by driving the team forward
• Specialists provide in-depth knowledge within a key area

The Tuckman Cycle

If you want to know where your team is on the journey to high performance, then the Tuckman cycle can help analyse which stage you are at. Bruce Tuckman identified that every team goes through these phases:

• Forming – coming together, tentatively
• Storming – working out roles, often with friction
• Norming – settling into a functioning team
• Performing – team synergy is producing exponential gains
• Adjourning – a project ends or team member leaves, starting the cycle to start again

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For help in moving a team from one stage to another, I also recommend the Drexler-Sibbet model.

Start now and try one!

Making effective decisions is a skill. Honing that skill requires practise but the good news is that there is a host of models, tools and processes that can help to refine that competency.

So next time you need to make a decision, work out which tool would best situation. Choose one of the models listed above and give it a try. I recommend you make a note of the approach you use, your decision and then review your choice later. This reflection process is probably the most important aspect of improving your decision-making skills. We need practice and feedback in order to improve.

Think about what you must do today. Which mental model could help you make the right choice? Give it a go!

A few months ago, a very good friend of mine died. It was sudden and unexpected. He was in his thirties. He was very fit (he had recently completed a marathon amongst other things) and seemed healthy. But he died in his sleep. The post-mortem was inconclusive as to his cause of death.

Unsurprisingly, his family, friends, and colleagues – like myself – were devasted. This was a combination of the shock – the fact he was young and healthy – and that he was so universally liked. This last point truly came home at his funeral. There were so many people there, from different parts of his life, all wanting to say goodbye, but also to celebrate him. And that is what we did. We remembered and appreciated the positive impact he had had on all of us. The eulogies of his brother and best friend had us laughing through our tears.

It was also very sobering. It reminded me of my mortality and posed the question, how will I be remembered?

Too busy to think about?

It seems like a morbid thing to do, to think about our own funeral, but it is an important thing to do. Thinking about the end of life changes our perspective. We can consider the demands of our busy daily lives in a different context. We can start to challenge our priorities and ask, why are we doing what we are doing?

“It is not enough to be busy. So are the ants. The question is: What are we busy about?”

Henry David Thoreau

Yes, we are all busy. But are your actions today working towards a greater purpose? People often talk about strategy, but what about our personal strategy? What is the long-term plan for our lives? What does success in life look like for us?

When our time is done, what will be our legacy? Who will miss us?

These are important questions. In fact, there might not be any questions more important than these. But how do we go about answering them?

The problem with life plans

The challenge with life plans is that they never seem to go to plan! Circumstances have a way of knocking our best plans into the outfield. This has certainly been my experience. Just take my career as an example. At college, I had a general idea of what I did and did not like, but I could never have predicted the journey that my career has taken. Often doors have closed upon the route I have wanted to take, only to reveal an unexpected opening. Looking back, the result has often been far better than the one I could have planned or hoped for.

But my choices have not all been random. I have not been a rudderless yacht driven before the storm. Sailing is a good metaphor to consider. When sailing you have a destination in mind, but you must adjust your route according to the changing weather conditions. Fluctuations in the wind mean you have to constantly adjust your sails and you rarely get to sail directly towards where you want to go. You must tack back and forth, keeping an eye on your bearing, but also making small adjustments, so the waves don’t capsize you.

When sailing, one must watch the compass, while the hand is on the tiller. So in life, we need to consider our values as we make decisions. Our personal principles are our moral compass. They inform everything from the little adjustments to the big direction changes.

So have a plan or at least an idea of your destination. That is a good thing. But do not try to steer your life without a good idea of your values as well. Otherwise, you will find it hard to adjust to changing circumstances.

What is the difference between résumé virtues and eulogy virtues?

When looking at values, particularly from an end-of-life perspective, there can be a difference in our priorities. We love to portray a certain image in our daily interactions, on our résumé or CV, or social media. We feel the pressure to convey the busy, successful, manicured beauty of life the world seems to demand.

But is that the life we truly want? Are they the people we really want to be? Do we want to be remembered for being busy? For our job title? For our holiday pictures?

David Brooks, author of The Road to Character, best summed up this dichotomy in his New York Times article, The Moral Bucket List, where he defined the difference between résumé virtues and eulogy virtues.

We live in a culture that centres on self. Self-image, self-fulfilment, self-determination. But the shift with eulogy virtues is away from selfish desires, work accomplishments, external recognition, and the accumulation of stuff. Eulogy virtues tend towards selflessness, and towards life accomplishment, internal peace, and the building of a legacy.

Eulogy virtues force us to acknowledge our weaknesses and failures. They help us move from desiring independence from others to recognising our need for inter-dependence with others. We shift our motivations from success to love, from career to calling, from competence to character.

As David Brooks notes, eulogy virtues even challenge the fundamental questions of life. It goes from “what do I want from life?” To “what does life ask of me?”

“Commencement speakers are always telling young people to follow their passions. Be true to yourself. This is a vision of life that begins with self and ends with self. But people on the road to inner light do not find their vocations by asking, what do I want from life? They ask, what is life asking of me? How can I match my intrinsic talent with one of the world’s deep needs?”

David Brooks

How to work out your eulogy virtues

Having had experience taking people through this process, as a coach, I can recommend that you try and write out your own eulogy. This might feel uncomfortable at first, but, if you go with the process, it can be very insightful.

As you write, remember that this is not an obituary written by somebody that does not know you. It is not the article in the paper for the eyes of the world, it is a eulogy, shared from the perspective of someone who loves you, to the key people of your life, gathered at your funeral. The person in mind should be someone who knows you well enough to call out your weaknesses as well as your strengths. To highlight how you dealt with your failures as well as your successes. Who can talk about your character and how you did things; not just your skills and what you did.

To do this I recommend the following steps:

• Set aside time – give yourself at least an hour of uninterrupted time
• Find a quiet place – select an environment to help you, most importantly somewhere you will not be disturbed.
• Engage your emotions as well as your mind – imagine what it would be like at your funeral and use your empathy to see yourself from another’s perspective
• Write – capture your thoughts as they come. It does not necessarily need to be coherent as a first draft
• Reflect – once you have run out of words think about what you have written. What are the underlying virtues that define your life? Which values best encompass the themes of your story?

You might want to compare this with other ways of exploring your values. If you want some examples of other exercises then you can find them in the article: What Are Your Personal Values?

Better than an action plan

By identifying your eulogy virtues, you create your own moral bucket list. This is a bucket list beyond just personal achievements. Life goals are great, but more important are the values we live by, the things that define why we do things and how we behave as we pursue our goals, whether we achieve them or not.

So, take time to reflect on your eulogy values. How do you want to be remembered? Identify and hold onto those virtues. Keep them in mind as you dive back into the busyness of your day. They will guide you through the winds and the waves, the calms, and the storms.

When I was about ten years old, I decided to run away from home and ran (unexpectedly) into an ethical issue. I can’t remember exactly why I wanted to run away (as my life wasn’t exactly bad) but I do remember that I strolled out of the house carrying nothing but a penknife. I was obviously confident in my survival skills and overly trusting that warm weather would continue!

With my elementary school logic, I decided that a hole in the ground – in the woods not far from my house – was the obvious place to start my new life. As this den was also known to my friends it was not long before one stumbled across me as I cleared the twigs from my future bed space.

“What are you doing?” My friend asked me. “Making camp.” I replied, “I have run away from home so don’t tell anyone!”

My friend wandered off and I continued working. Then, about twenty minutes later my friend arrived back. Behind him stood my dad. I remember looking into my friend’s eyes, feeling betrayed but also knowing they had done the right thing. I was outraged and relieved all at the same time.

What are ethics and why are they important?

At that stage in life, I had no idea what ethics was, but I did intuitively know that my friend made a courageous moral decision that day. Ethics is simply that; it is making good or right choices. That includes big ethical dilemmas, such should we limit artificial intelligence or genetic engineering, right through to more everyday choices, such as whether you help yourself to extra stationery at the office for personal use at home.

Making good decisions is not easy. We might have an intuitive feel of what is right or wrong but sometimes the answer is not obvious. This is particularly the case when various values come under tension.

Taking my running away as an example, my friend had to balance the value of loyalty against that of care. Loyalty might have persuaded them to keep quiet as I had shared something in confidence, but out of care for me they knew the right thing was to tell my parents.

Therefore, sometimes values on their own are not sufficient. In these moments, where good values are in tension, we can employ a decision-making tool to help make the best ethical choice.

How to make ethical decisions

One such technique has been developed by The Ethics Centre in Australia. The Ethics Centre is a not-for-profit organisation that promotes the use of ethics in everyday life and decision-making. They suggest a decision-making model based on considering values, principles, and purpose.

In this context (and using the wording of The Ethics Centre):

• Values tell us what’s good – they’re the things we strive for, desire, and seek to protect.
• Principles tell us what’s right – outlining how we may or may not achieve our values.
• Purpose is your reason for being – it gives life to your values and principles.

Of course, to employ this methodology you must first know what your values, principles and purpose are, so let’s take some time to consider each in turn.

Values

Values are things we give worth, things we prioritise. The values (or virtues) we aspire to come in different forms, such as:

• Personal values (the ones we prioritise as an individual)
• Corporate values (the ones we hold in a community or organization such as a company’s values)
• Universal values (ones that are held in common more globally such as the UN Charter of Human Rights)

Therefore, the starting point, when making a decision, is working out which values are the most important ones in the circumstance. If you have never properly identified your values, then I would recommend you discover your top 3 personal values.

Principles

Principles help us think about what is right or wrong and, in this way, they complement values. These principles are essentially algorithms for behaviour. For example, when working in the British Army and considering a course of action the principles I was taught to apply can be summed up in the following question:

“Is this action lawful, appropriate, and professional?”

Many of our principles have a basis in religion. For example, one of the principles I (like many) try to live by is the Golden Rule. The Golden Rule is the idea of treating others as we would like to be treated and this precept is reflected in various spiritual traditions. For example, the Hindu Mahabharata states:

“One should never do something to others that one would regard as an injury to one’s own self.”

Mahābhārata 13.114.8

Or in the teachings of the Buddha:

“Hurt not others in ways that you yourself would find hurtful.”

Udanavarga 5:18

And similarly, Jesus of Nazareth said:

“Do to others what you want them to do to you.”

Matthew 7:12

So, as with values, there are some common themes, but it is also worth reflecting upon the specific principles you hold to. This can be done systematically if you take time to reflect on how you make decisions. This reflective process will start to reveal the underlying principles you use.

If you would like to explore more on identifying and developing principles, then I recommend reading Ray Dalio’s book Principles where you can see how this process can be done on both a personal and organisational level.

Purpose

Similarly, to values and principles, there can be overlapping ideas of purpose. These might be:

• Individual purpose – your own sense of personal purpose
• Professional purpose – the specific purpose we have in a given work role
• Organisational purpose – the mission statement of a team or business your work for

To understand purpose and make it measurable it is advisable to create a clear and concise mission statement. A good purpose statement is a definition of success, within a given context.

For example, my own mission statement is:

 “To serve people by helping them unlock their leadership, in order to support them on their adventure.”

In this case, my personal purpose statement also encompasses my top three values of service, leadership, and adventure (but this does not have to be the case). For example, Oprah Winfrey’s purpose statement is:

“To be a teacher. And to be known for inspiring my students to be more than they thought they could be.”

What I find useful about this (and good purpose statements in general) is they can give a measure of success against different time scales. Both the mission statements above can be used to consider achievement in a day, week, year, or lifetime. These statements also help to analyse whether decisions have worked towards the good and successful outcome of the stated purpose.

Factors that impact good decision-making and ethical choices

Even after identifying our values, principles, and purpose, or those specific to a given ethical problem, there are still factors that can impact making a good choice. Most of these factors relate to cognitive bias, the subconscious rules of thumb we use to help us make quick decisions.

To minimise the negative impacts of cognitive bias it is worth considering the following:

• Education and training. Learn about decision-making and the different types of cognitive bias
• Diversity of thought. Bring different perspectives to a team or decision
• Build a culture that allows challenge. Create a culture around you where people are more likely to challenge or call out bad behaviour and decisions (even if that is just a good friend who will be brutally honest with you)

The three things to help you make good ethical decisions

Therefore, if you want to make ethical decisions you need to first know your values, principles, and purpose. Then, while allowing for cognitive bias, you can then balance these three elements against each other to make your choice.

This does not mean you will immediately come up with an answer. If you are new to exploring values, principles, and purpose then that will likely throw up challenges and questions to work through before you even get back to the ethical problem you are facing!

But don’t despair. The search for good outcomes and truth is a journey, not a single destination. It should inspire personal reflection, critical thinking, and the sort of discourse that Socrates would be proud of. And that quality thinking leads to good actions, and as Martin Luther King said:

“The time is always right, to do what is right.”

So, having established in previous posts the background to The Right Questions and an idea of their importance, we can now get an overview of The Right Questions and how they are applied to strategic planning and achieving goals, both in a personal or business context. The questions come in an order of sorts but the process of asking The Right Questions is also iterative and cyclical. In other words, the answer to one question is likely to inform an answer to another, and even after we have worked through all the questions we will generally go back and revisit the others to refine our answers.

It is beneficial to explore the questions in two broad groups. The first is comprised of the where, what and why, and these encompass the strategic framing of a situation. The second group is made up of the questions how, when, and who and these help us develop a specific plan within the aforementioned strategic frame.

The two groups are joined by ‘which’ as this question deals with the concepts of options and risk. After looking at the overall strategic picture we use ‘which’ to explore courses of action from which we can choose an option to develop into a more detailed plan. We then return to this same question to weigh the risks as the plan progresses. Looking at these options and risks are the key decision points and can lead us to return through the strategic framing or planning loops again.

Taken all together these seven questions create a template for strategic planning and also become a decision-making process that follows a figure of eight cycle, as demonstrated in the diagram below.

“I keep six honest serving-men, (They taught me all I knew); Their names are What and Why and When, And How and Where and Who.” Rudyard Kipling

STRATEGIC FRAMING

Why? (Values and Priorities)

The ‘Why?’ represents our values. Our values are our identity; the things at our centre that define why we have the vision in the first place, why we do the things we do, why we attract certain people. They are our beliefs and worldview. These are often things we hold in common with others at one level but the particular combination and application of the values make them unique to us. Knowing our principles shows us what we value most and therefore it also helps us to prioritise and make good decisions.

Where? (Situation and Vision)

‘Where?’ is the present location and the future destination, the situation and the vision. We look at whence we have come from and whither are we going as our journey is bracketed by these ideas of ‘where’. When you get out a map the first thing you do is identify where you are and get your bearings; only once you have done this do you plan to move. And when you move, you don’t want to wander aimlessly (movement in itself is not progress), there needs to be a destination, something we are aiming for. This destination is the dream, the thing that stokes our passion and gives us our drive.

What? (Mission)

‘What?’ represents the mission, the reality of what we are going to do. The mission is the bottom line, the tangible measured difference that we are to make. To work out the mission we need to define success so that we know our finish line. We can then sum this up in a pithy and memorable way to get our mission statement.

REFLECTION INTERSECTION

Which? (Options, Risk and Reflection)

Options

We have to choose which way to go and therefore ‘Which?’ deals with the idea of selection. First, we have to generate a range of courses of options we can choose from. This is a creative process, requiring divergent thinking, and taking time to step out of the purely logical process in order to examine unorthodox ways of problem-solving. Generating these options is something we can do before looking at the how, when and who questions. We are generally faced with various strategy options and we have to select a route by assessing relevant factors.

Risk

One of the major factors affecting a decision is risk. If a venture is deemed too risky it is the surest thing that will stop us from acting, no matter how attractive the option first seemed. To make good decisions we need to identify, assess, mitigate risk and then manage the risk accordingly. Capacity for risk varies between people and situations so it is important to remember that this is an ongoing process of management. At the same time we don’t want to become defensive, timid or risk averse; achieving bold visions means taking risks. We just need to make sure we have counted the cost before we commit ourselves.

Reflection

The option does not have to be perfect. What we are looking for is the minimal viable product (MVP) approach to problem-solving. When an idea good enough to add some planning to it, but then we need to test it. This is where the ‘which’ question becomes the reflection point in the interlinking loops between strategic framing and planning. We test our ideas, reflect and learn from them, then adjust our plans and go again.

PLANNING

How? (Strategy, Goals, Planning and Resources)

‘How?’ is the method or plan by which we achieve the mission. Goals and activities support the overall strategy and propel us towards our dream. Breaking down the route into manageable steps gives us the basis of an action plan and makes the dream an achievable reality. Once we have worked out the detail of each task it is much easier to assess the correct resources we need for each step and therefore, by adding up these resources, we can get a better estimate of the total resources we need to achieve the whole mission.

When? (Timing and Programming)

It is no surprise that ‘When?’ refers to time. Timing is critical. Choosing the right time makes the difference between success and failure and it takes an equal measure of planning and wisdom to know when to implement strategies, to go for goals and ultimately achieve missions. Time is key to planning and is the one truly limited resource. As we overlay our plan with time we create a programme with milestones that help us to measure our progress towards our goal.

Who? (Roles, Team, Structure and Network)

The ‘Who?’ is primarily about the roles different people fulfil, the makeup of our team, the structure of our organisation and the people we connect within our personal network. Sometimes we have a mission and then we go out and put together a team and therefore we need to know what we are looking for. At other times we may need an existing team to adopt a new strategy. In this case, we need to know how best to place people as we re-structure the existing team. Even if we are operating alone, not having a specific team or organisation, we always have a unique network of contacts to draw upon. People are always involved one way or another on our journey and they are the most important resource that we can draw upon.

Now that we have looked at an overview of The Right Questions we will look at each one in greater detail in future posts.

If you want to know more about the background and evidence for the approach I recommend you read:

Beyond the 5Ws: Ask questions like a philosopher, answer as a visionary

If you want to start going through the process I recommend you ‘start with why’ (like Simon Sinek) and read the following:

What are your personal values?

In my last post I talked about the Stockdale paradox and coming to terms with the brutal facts of our situation. That is the first step in addressing our fears.

When one looks at the reality of where we are it can be scary at first but as you take think everything through logically it can start to dispel those fears.  We need to ask ourselves, Ok, so what is the worst that can happen? If we analyse the problem in this way we can put things into perspective as often the worst thing is not that bad after all.  We can also start to plan and work out how would we would act if the worst case scenario was to happen.  In this way we can confront our fears.

Confronting fear

Confronting our fears helps us to avoid either living in a dream world or being crippled by limiting assumptions.

As the Japanese proverb says:

Vision without action is just a dream; action without vision is a nightmare.

We need a clear vision and we need to understand the assumptions we have that either enable or limit our actions.  Sometime negative assumptions are referred to as defeater beliefs but I think it is more helpful to think of them as assumptions as belief can have more fixed connotations and if negative, these thought patterns need to be challenged.

For example, when trying to introduce a change in your professional life you may face fears about your job, your promotion prospects or your financial security.  This can trigger thoughts such as “I can’t do that – I would lose my job!”  This is reasonable enough, as losing one’s job can have major consequences, but make sure you think it through.  You may well find that:

1. If you are smart about how you do things then you probably don’t need to lose your job, or
2. That it would be worth the risk as you do not like your job anyway, or
3. You are pretty confident you could find a new and better job

There are plenty of other defeater beliefs that we could add in here such as:

1. “I won’t be able to pay my mortgage/student loan/credit card bill/monthly subscription to Sky Sport*”, or
2. “My boss/parents/family/imaginary friend won’t let me*”, or
3. “I will lose my friends/the good favour of my colleagues/the respect of my dog*”

(*delete as appropriate)

Overcoming fear

Whatever fears pop into your mind when you look at your present and future situation make sure you capture them and interrogate them fully.  Assess each of them to see how real the perceived threat actually is. This way we can overcome fear.

We also need things in balance. Therefore when considering the ‘where’ question we keep one eye on the present and one on the future; one on the location, one on the vision.  The dream of the future needs to be compelling enough to draw us forward, no matter what the challenges are that we face, and we will be looking at this aspect of ‘where’ in a future post.

Which fears have you faced and overcome? Which would you like to overcome?

The SWOT analysis is one of the easiest and best-known decision-making tools. Leaders and managers employ this method frequently, but it can be used by anyone. Here is an explanation of what a SWOT analysis is, when to use one and how to write a good SWOT analysis. I have also included a worked example.

What is a SWOT Analysis?

SWOT is an acronym that stands for: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.

The SWOT analysis was developed by researchers at Stanford University, following a study in the 1960s. The study looked at various Fortune 500 companies and found that there was a difference between an organisation’s set strategic priorities and what was actually done. The study also revealed that the problem was not poor employees, but rather a lack of clear objectives. Therefore, SWOT was developed to give staff a clear understanding of a business or project.

Why is SWOT analysis effective?

The SWOT analysis is one of the most important and popular tools for decision making and strategy development. This is because of its:

• Simplicity – it is simple to learn and quick to use
• Clarity – it focusses on the key issues and aids clear communication
• Flexibility – it is applicable to individuals and organisations.

Having a coherent strategy is vital to any organisation, and equally, self-awareness is critical to personal effectiveness. But you need to be able to understand and communicate these things clearly. This is why SWOT analysis is such an important tool.

When should you use SWOT analysis?

The SWOT analysis is best used to:

• Improve situational awareness
• Develop strategy
• Identify and refine actions and goals
• Improve self-awareness (for an individual or team)
• Reflect upon a completed project or activity

The SWOT analysis was designed for organisations but it can equally be used by individuals. The SWOT process identifies crucial internal and external influences within a given situation. Therefore it gives us a snapshot of where we are and is excellent for situational analysis.

SWOT Template

The most common way to present and consider the SWOT approach is as a matrix. Here is an example template:

How do you do a SWOT analysis?

Do you want to know how to do a SWOT analysis? Don’t worry; it’s easy! Just follow these steps.

Step 1: Create a SWOT table:

The SWOT matrix is set out thus:

• Strengths and weaknesses are usually listed in the first row of the matrix; S and then W. These relate to internal factors.
• Opportunities and threats are external issues or circumstances. These create the second row; O and then T.
• In this layout, the first column, strengths and opportunities, signify the positive or helpful factors
• The second column, weaknesses and threats, are the potentially negative or harmful issues

SWOT Analysis Template Layout

Step 2: Brainstorm

Next, brainstorm as many different considerations as you can under each heading.

Here are some questions to help you:

Strengths (internal/personal):

• What are your/your team/organisation’s key skills, areas of experience or expertise?
• Can you define your USP (unique selling point/proposition)?
• What are your core values? What do you love, enjoy or prioritise?

Weaknesses (internal/personal):

• What do you not enjoy doing?
• Where have you failed or fallen behind the competition?
• What skill gaps do you have?

 Threats (external/circumstantial):

• What circumstances are most troubling you?
• Who is your major competition?
• Which challenge is the most important right now?
• What is the worst thing that could happen to you/your organisation?

Opportunities (external/circumstantial):

• How can you leverage your present situation?
• Who/what could most help you right now?
• How is change providing new openings?

Step 3: Prioritise

Now prioritise the lists; work out which are the top three to five things in each quadrant.

Whether you are using it as an individual or as part of a team, keep it simple and high-level; that is the systems greatest strength.

Step 4: Analyse

Look at each item in turn and consider the actions you could take. Here are some questions to help:

• How can you play to or maximise your strengths?
• What personal development goals, people and processes can help address your weaknesses?
• How can you exploit, expand or multiply the opportunities?
• What control measures do you need to put in place to limit the threats?

Now look for further relationships that you can identify across the columns, rows and diagonals.

Remember that weaknesses are often a reflection of strengths. For example, if you have a strength in that you are very good at coming up with lots of ideas, or you are a business with lots of products, a weakness might be that you find it hard to focus on just one of them.

Similarly, look at the flip side of external factors; you may find that threats can also provide opportunities. For example, a competitor could actually be a potential partner.

A failed project is always an opportunity for learning. From your analysis, how could you use that learning and pivot the idea, or re-purpose the team?

SWOT Analysis Example

Here is a short example using personal strengths and weaknesses:

SWOT Analysis Example

First looking at the strengths I recognise that I am quite task-focused. This means I am a good planner and show determination when seeing a project through. Moving across to the right quadrant I have noted a related weakness. Because I am task-focused that means I am quite future-orientated. The downside of this is that sometimes I can forget to be content in the moment or to celebrate the success of achieving something before moving on to the next goal.

Then looking at threats I have noted down that there is increased competition in my industry, with more people entering the market all the time. This threat does lead to an opportunity in the bottom left quadrant. I have the chance to refine my USP (unique selling proposition) in order to stand out from the crowd.

Example analysis

It is more likely that I would list more items under each heading before continuing, but for the sake of simplicity let’s do a little analysis on what we already have.

How do I maximise my strengths and minimise the impact of my weaknesses? There are a few options I could consider under the ‘3 Ps’:

• Personal development: I could attend some training to improve my mindfulness and being ‘present’
• Person: find or employ someone else with a complementary skill set whose strengths/weaknesses are the opposite of my own
• Process: put some time in the diary to be more reflective on a daily basis and plan ahead to celebrate after achieving a goal

When considering the threats, I cannot control new people entering the market but I can work out how to best serve, and therefore retain, my existing clients. The opportunity of refining my USP becomes a strategic task, something that is going to require more work delving into why I do what I do, how that makes me different, who I can best serve and what extra benefit I can bring. The other items that I list in the strengths quadrant will help to develop that USP.

Making a plan from your SWOT Analysis

The ‘Right Questions’ format is an excellent way to examine this issue and so if this is something you want to pursue further then I recommend that you read my post on What are the Right Questions for Decision Making and Strategic Planning?

If you would like to explore more decision making tools then I recommend ‘The Decision Book’: