How To Make Decisions And Use A Decision Making Process

When was the last time you made a decision? It was probably when you decided to click on the link and read this article! So, what decision-making approach did you use? How much time did you think about it? One way or another you just experienced a decision-making process. And that was but one of perhaps hundreds of decisions you have made already today.

What is decision-making?

Put simply, decision-making is the process of considering, and making a choice between, various courses of action.

A decision can be defined as:

“Come or bring to a resolution in the mind as a result of consideration.”

or

“Make a choice from a number of alternatives.”

Lexico (Oxford English Dictionary)

Decision-making can be further defined as:

“The action or process of making important decisions.

Lexico (Oxford English Dictionary)

But even these definitions, though useful, can be misleading as many of the decisions we make every day are unconscious. Also, we apply process – of sorts – even to non-important decisions.

Decision-making is constant

Decision-making is a process, but it is actually something we do constantly. Whether we are conscious of the process or not, we are faced with a multitude of decisions to make every day. Estimates vary as to exactly how many, but, researcher Sheena Iyengar did studies of US adults showing they made around 70 conscious decisions on a daily basis.

And there are higher estimates. Researchers at Cornell University have shown that we make 226.7 decisions each day on just food alone (Wansink and Sobal, 2007). I am guessing my .7 decision was when I nearly had that extra cup of coffee…

And that is just for choices about food! Think about all the other decisions we have to make. For example, even as I type I am making a constant string of choices of which words to use in order to express what I want to say.

Some online sources estimate that we make around 35,000 decisions a day. This estimate is based on the number of thoughts we have per second. This is not an exact measure by any means. But, what is certain, is that we have to make loads of decisions! Many of these choices are conscious ones, and these require some sort of applied process.

“Time is like a river that carries us forward into encounters with reality that require us to make decisions. We can’t stop our movement down this river and we can’t avoid those encounters. We can only approach them in the best possible way.”

Ray Dalio

The Paralysis of Analysis

Have you ever stood in a supermarket and stared for an age, weighing up a choice between similar items?

Most of us will have experienced this kind of analysis paralysis to one level or another. It happens when the choice is too great, alternatives too similar or the choice is outside of our usual frame of reference. To avoid this paralysis we often rely on heuristics – simple decision-making tools, rules or hacks – to help us make informed decisions. For example, we might prefer one particular brand or product and just pick that so we don’t have to give it too much thought. This can be an effective heuristic – to save us time, ensure quality or save money.

Using Heuristics

But, knowing about psychology, it is also these sorts of biases and heuristics that marketing experts love to exploit. To understand more on this subject then I recommend you read Daniel Kahneman’s acclaimed book ‘Thinking Fast and Slow‘. Kahneman is recognised as the world leader in understanding heuristics and bias.

As Kahneman demonstrates in his research, most decisions we make are actually unconscious ones. It would take too long to use a process or explore the pros and cons of every decision. We can risk paralysis by analysis if we spend too much time on a decision, as we can become overloaded by information.

Some decisions are relatively unimportant. This could include choosing which clothes to wear, what to eat for lunch or what to watch on television. For these decisions, simple heuristics – even flipping a coin or rolling dice – can be effective.

Some decisions are much more important, such as the choice of spouse, partner, career or work. Similarly, large purchases, such as buying a property, are significant decisions. We instinctively know that we should take more time and effort over the more important decisions. The problem is that we do not necessarily understand how we make decisions. Nor do we have the tools to help us make the best choice. So how can we do it better?

How do we make decisions?

What was the last big decision you made and how did you make it?

We often think of decision making as a rational process where we engage our logic to solve a problem. But decision making is actually not just problem analysis (although they are linked). Also, a lot of decision making is influenced more by emotion than by logic.

This is not necessarily a bad thing. Our emotions are very important and employing them does not necessarily make a choice irrational. Emotions and passions are connected to our experiences, preferences and values.

If we were purely rational we would operate according to Rational Choice Theory. This means we would always make the choice that offers the best statistical chance of success or reward. However various scientific studies have shown that this is not the case. We are not purely rational and can be heavily influenced, by ourselves, others and circumstances to make quite irrational decisions.

The psychology of decision-making

People don’t realise that they often influence and even fool themselves. Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber published a paper in 2011 that concluded we use our reason and logic, not to get to the truth or to make good decisions, but primarily to strengthen our position and persuade other people that we are right. This is confirmation bias, where we selectively choose data that supports our decision. This is just one example of cognitive bias.

Our circumstances also play a large part in our decision making especially if we are in stressful conditions. At the extreme level, we could be affected by the ‘fight, flight or freeze’ responses first outlined by Walter Bradford Cannon. These physiological responses have a direct influence on our psychology and may even completely override our conscious decision-making capacity.

Other people can also bias our decisions. This could be simple peer pressure or more manipulative influence employed by an individual. Our psychology can be exploited. As mentioned earlier, salespeople used have long understood this, hence strategies such as creating the idea of scarcity or advertising using subliminal suggestion and product placement.

The psychology of decision making is a fascinating and growing field. If you would like to dig deeper into the subject, take a look at ‘The top 10 books on decision-making and thinking.’

What is a decision making process?

Being aware of the influences we have is very important if we want to make good decisions. Decision-making processes can help us as they encourage us to take a step back from our situation and assess it more objectively. This will not eliminate bias but it will help.

Decision-making processes also seek to identify the stages needed to make a decision so we can follow through on a choice in a logical manner. One common breakdown of the steps is shown below:

The 7 steps to a decision-making process

  1. Outline the goal or outcome/analyse the problem
  2. Gather data/consider factors
  3. Develop alternatives/courses of action
  4. Consider the pros and cons of each alternative
  5. Make the decision
  6. Implement the decision/take action
  7. Learn from the decision

To some level, most people apply a decision-making process at some time, even if they don’t call it by that name. Making a list of the pros and cons of a decision is one of the simplest and most common decision-making processes. Related to this is the setting of priorities or by reducing choices by process of elimination.

One process we employ is giving our decision making to people and things. Acquiescing responsibility for a decision, as we do to our elected politicians, or delegating decision making to subordinates is a decision making process. Flipping a coin is a way of acquiescing responsibility to fate or probability (depending upon your view of the world) whereas there is also an increasing array of software that we can also use to support our decision making, or even to make decisions for us.

Why are decision making processes important?

How much training have you had, specifically on decision-making?

Despite the importance of decision making and the general awareness of decision-making processes, very few organisations put much time and training into teaching people how to make better decisions. We gain a certain amount of critical thinking and problem analysis through our formal education but few people feel properly prepared to make important decisions in their work, especially when they may need to defend their position, demonstrate their rationale and persuade others to follow a decision.

Many existing processes within organisations support decision making. For example, a tender process, where bids from vendors are received and reviewed, is a decision-making process. This sort of selection process takes into account factors important to a contract, such as cost, quality and the track record of a company. Voting in a meeting is another simple process. It is a democratic heuristic, testing not only how people think or feel about an idea but also then putting pressure on others to support a decision once votes are cast.

Teaching decision making

But few people – including leaders – are taught decision-making skills that can be used more generally. There are a few institutions that have recognised the importance of teaching tools and processes to their decision-makers, in order to equip them to make informed choices. The military and the medical profession are key examples of this. This is because those with responsibility in these professions are dealing with life and death decisions, often made under highly stressful and emotionally charged situations. In these careers, where people are held accountable for such weighty choices it is no surprise that a lot of thinking has gone into good decision making.

The Military Decision Making Process of the United States Army) and the UK Military Combat Estimate Process (known as the Seven Questions are examples of these sorts of tools that share much in common and reflect the seven steps outlined above.

But the challenge I bring to leaders in all walks of life is this: even if a decision you make is not likely to be life or death, it can still radically affect the quality of people’s lives, as well as the success and profitability of an organisation. So is it any less important to make good decisions in other spheres of work?

What decision making processes are there to use?

The good news is, that even if you have not had formal decision-making training, there is help available. There are plenty of robust decision-making processes and tools around, it is just choosing the best one for you, your team and your situation.

A good starting point is understanding decision making at its most basic and for this I would recommend looking at the OODA loop. OODA stands for ‘Observe, Orientate, Decide, Act’ and you can learn more about it in my post on ‘The OODA Loop Decision Making Cycle.’

My experience as a Bomb Disposal Officer, leadership coach and management consultant led me to develop my own decision-making process that I dubbed ‘The Right Questions’. This is a simple tool that uses the interrogative words of the English language as prompts for the steps you need to take and questions you need to ask when making decisions. You can find out more by reading ‘The Right Questions Framework Guide.

Is decision making just for leaders?

Decision making is becoming of increasing importance to those not in traditional leadership roles. Organisations are becoming less hierarchical in structure and in today’s fluid and fast moving work place the best employees are those who can take the initiative, make and act upon good decisions.

Therefore everyone can benefit from understanding more about the way we make decisions and from learning simple decision making processes.

And as we have seen, good decision making is not just important in the work place. We all have to make decisions that affect the direction of our lives. This is why as a coach I have found that processes, such as The Right Questions, can be equally as helpful in exploring the bigger questions of life.

Where are you heading? What do you want to achieve? How are you planning to get there?

If you are interest in exploring these questions at a personal level then just subscribe to my newsletter and you will get a free goal setting workbook and personal action plan. Just sign up here!

Taking things further

You may want also want some help, improving your decision-making and becoming more effective at achieving your goals. I have the pleasure of seeing amazing, positive, transformations in the individuals and organisations I work with. If you would like some assistance too, in person or online, then please do drop me a line. You can email me via the contact page.

I look forward to hearing from you!

If you want the right answers you have to start with the right questions

About The Right Questions

The Right Questions is for people who want greater clarity, purpose and success. There is a wealth of resources to boost your effectiveness in achieving goals, your leadership of yourself and others, and your decision-making.

Wherever you are on your journey, I hope that you find information on this site to help you on the next leg of your quest. Even if that is just the inspiration to take one small step in the right direction, then that is a success. If you can take pleasure in learning and travelling as you go, then so much the better.

Need help navigating your journey to success?

I love to serve people, helping them unlock their potential, empowering them as leaders, and assisting them in achieving their goals. Please get in touch and let me know how I can support you!

How Heuristics Can Effect Good Decision-Making

Cowering in a ditch, I knew that there was a good chance I could be killed or seriously injured by the explosion that was just seconds away. While awaiting my self-induced demise, I had a short time to consider my hubris.

I was a bomb disposal officer. I had been trained to deal with dangerous devices and I also had operational experience. So, if I was such an expert, how had I got into this mess? In a critical situation, despite my training, I had made an error in my decision making.

Pride comes before a fall

Let’s leave me and the ditch for the moment and let me ask you a question:

How do you make good decisions?

Have you thought about the process of making choices? It turns out that, although we can all make decisions, the psychology is quite complicated. If you had asked me that same question back then, early in my career, I would have talked to you about the power of logical thought and how a systematic approach to decision making would ensure good decisions.

Well, I was learning the hard way that there is more to decision-making than just assessing factors and choosing a course of action. There are also things called heuristics that – when used poorly – can spoil our plans.

Going out with a bang

First, let’s get back to me in that ditch. In fact, let’s wind back a little and see how I got there.

The day had started well. It was beautiful. The sky was so big and blue I could stare at it and just lose myself there, wrapped in the warmth of the sun, as I waited for a call from my squad. I was doing what I loved, leading my team, trying to make the world a safer place by removing dangerous objects from this magnificent African landscape. And it was fun too, blowing stuff up is fun (until you are caught up in the explosion that is).

On that day there were over a hundred people out scouring mile after mile of the countryside looking for dangerous material. This could be unexploded artillery shells, mortar rounds and even the occasional big bomb. When they found something, they would call me, as they did that day.

I was hailed on my radio and was given a location some miles away. I drove as close as I could in my Landrover 4×4 with my colleague and then we advanced the last mile or so on foot; when the terrain got too difficult. We turned up to find a large pile of artillery shells that needed to be disposed of.

Situational analysis

At this point, our training and experience kicked in. We used our question technique to assess the situation and came up with a plan.

We had been instructed to use the 5Ws to help assess a situation. The 5Ws are the interrogative words of the English language: what, where, when, who and why. The other common interrogative of ‘how’ was generally added to these 5Ws.

The 5Ws would provide a structure to understand the situation. For example:

  • What are we dealing with?  In this case a pile of old artillery shells
  • Why are they there?  They have been fired from guns, but the fuse mechanisms have failed to detonate on impact
  • Where are they? Located in a difficult to access area of bush. So what? We will have to go in and out on foot
  • Who is in danger?  Just my colleague and I; the rest of the area is clear for miles
  • How can they be disposed of?  Correct application of plastic explosive and a manual timed fuse

The answers to the questions informed our plan. And, as we did not have the vehicle nearby, we needed somewhere close that would provide us with some cover. We looked around and chose a small hillock in the distance that looked promising.  We estimated how long it would take us to walk there then cut the fuse to the correct length.

Bomb disposal: if you see me running, try to keep up

After checking our work, we lit the fuse, checked our watches and set off towards the small hill that would give us cover.  We chatted about important things such as how many letters we had received from home that week and how much we wanted a cold beer.  The funny thing was the escarpment was not getting any closer.  Our pace increased.

We laughed and joked, and we walked briskly along but looking at our watches gave us some cause for alarm.  We broke into a run.  There was no longer any laughing or even chatting.  All that was said was: “we are not going to get there in time, do you see any other cover?”  We spotted what seemed to be a series of gullies over to our left, so we headed towards them.  Upon reaching them our relief quickly turned back to anxiety because the shallow angle of the gully slopes would afford us little cover.  We ran on.  At this point in the proceedings, I sent up a quick prayer, and with only seconds to go and we dived into a shallow pit and crouched down with our backs to the sand. We had to compress ourselves to keep our heads below the parapet of the depression.

Going out with a bang?

For a few seconds, the only sound was our thumping hearts, heavy breathing and the noise of a nonchalant fly investigating my hat. Then we felt the explosion – a pulse through the earth and a punch through the air.  We looked at one another.  No words were exchanged but much was communicated.  We were both thinking – that was a bigger bang than expected; we felt dreadfully close!

Next, there was a sound that made me flinch – it was like an angry hornet going past my ear – and then there was another, followed by little thuds and puffs of sand as the shrapnel came down around us.  As the deadly rain struck the ground there was little we could do, so I opted to laugh and my Sergeant used a varied, colourful (but sadly unprintable) string of expletives to express his feelings.

When our self-induced bombardment came to an end, and it was obvious we were both not only alive but also unharmed, we spent a few precious seconds enjoying the quiet.  The same solitary fly, who seemed oblivious to the proceedings, was still taking an interest in my hat.

Not surprisingly the whole experience made me ponder about my decision-making.

The problem with heuristics and the dangers of bias

I had been trained in decision making and planning so what had gone wrong on that day?

Well in this case one good decision-making tool had been undermined by another. My plan for dealing with the bombs was sound, but it was let down by the simple heuristic that I employed to choose my cover.

When judging distance, I was unknowingly using a scaling heuristic, in other words, I was estimating how far away the hillock was due to its size. The problem is this method only really works well if you have a uniform sized object – such as a person or vehicle – and something to compare it with. In this case, I was looking at a hill – I did not know its actual size – and there was nothing else in the bare landscape to compare it with. The hill was a lot bigger and further away than I estimated.

“This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.”

Daniel Kahneman

What is a heuristic?

A heuristic is a simple decision-making hack or rule of thumb. We use these all the time in our thinking and choices.

One example would be how we choose things when we shop at the supermarket. Most of the things we pick up will be the same items we usually get. If you examine your groceries, most will be from suppliers that you know and regularly use. We do this largely to save us from making endless decisions. If we had to start again every time we went to the shops – not knowing what we liked or could trust – then it would take an age to select each thing.

Considering the bewildering number of choices that are on offer in most shops these days. Without this simple heuristic, we could suffer from analysis paralysis. In other words, without a simple way to make decisions then the processing power of our brains could get overwhelmed by the sheer quantity of data.

That is why manufacturers fight so hard for brand recognition and product loyalty. They know they if they can make you switch to their product then you are very likely to stick with it. That is why they are willing to cut prices and make special offers to tempt you to switch your habits.

And that is just one example of a heuristic. We use these thinking tools in everything from catching a ball to choosing where we sit in a cinema.

Are heuristics good or bad?

Heuristics are not bad in themselves. As mentioned, they are useful mental short-cuts that save us time and generally help us to make quick effective judgements. But each heuristic is a simplified model so it cannot take in all the complexities of a situation. Therefore, heuristics must rely on certain assumptions. Once again, assumptions are not intrinsically bad, but some assumptions can be wrong, or just inaccurate in some circumstances.

That is why we need to be aware of the heuristics we use and when we are using them. Going back to my example, there is nothing wrong with the scaling heuristic. Using relative sizes and distances is a well-known and very useful tool for judging distance. The problem was that I applied the tool bluntly, not considering if any of my assumptions were wrong. The reason for my assumptions being wrong was due to cognitive bias, in this instance confirmation bias (but that is another subject for another post).

Use heuristics but beware of hubris

I had a good process for making decisions (using interrogatives) but in this story, one little mistake nearly cost me my life and that of my colleague. In my case, it was my estimate of distance that undermined my plan. My hubris or overconfidence was enough for me to not examine my assumptions.

That does not mean that the heuristic or the rest of the plan was bad. Far from it. Using heuristics, having a decision-making framework and other planning tools can help us make better decisions.

But, as we plan, we must be cognisant of the heuristics and other processes that we are using, especially if those decisions are important. If we are choosing a coffee, fine we can take a risk and assume the barista knows what they are doing and can make a coffee. But if you have a bigger decision to make, such as getting a builder to extend your house, then it is worth examining your options, not just assuming anyone can do the work just because they say so.

So, if you want to make better choices today ask yourself two questions.

  1. What heuristic or process am I using?
  2. What assumptions am I making and are they correct?

Then you will be on the path to better more effective decisions.

If you want the right answers you have to start with the right questions

About The Right Questions

The Right Questions is for people who want greater clarity, purpose and success. There is a wealth of resources to boost your effectiveness in achieving goals, your leadership of yourself and others, and your decision-making.

Wherever you are on your journey, I hope that you find information on this site to help you on the next leg of your quest. Even if that is just the inspiration to take one small step in the right direction, then that is a success. If you can take pleasure in learning and travelling as you go, then so much the better.

Need help navigating your journey to success?

I love to serve people, helping them unlock their potential, empowering them as leaders, and assisting them in achieving their goals. Please get in touch and let me know how I can support you!

The Best Decision-Making Tools That You Should Know About

Decision making is a fact of life, we have a constant barrage of information we need to analyse and choices we have to make. Here are some simple tools to help you.

The SWOT Analysis

The SWOT analysis is a simple yet effective way of doing a situational analysis and exploring the internal and external influences that are affecting an individual or organisation. SWOT stands for:

  • Strengths
  • Weaknesses
  • Opportunities
  • Threats

Strengths and weaknesses are the internal factors; opportunities and threats the external ones. The idea of the SWOT analysis is to keep things simple and concise. All that needs to be done is to record the key considerations under each heading to highlight the critical information that needs to be acted upon. The SWOT analysis is based upon a study done at Stanford University.

The Eisenhower Matrix

The Eisenhower Matrix (named after US President Dwight D. Eisenhower) is another simple yet powerful tool but in this case it is used for time management. The process is based upon identifying whether something is either important or not important, urgent or not urgent. The matrix is then made up of four boxes:

  • Important, but not urgent – things that you decide when you will do them
  • Urgent and important – things that should be done immediately
  • Not important, not urgent – things that can be done at a later date
  • Urgent but not important – things that can be delegated to someone else

Items on a to-do list are categorised into the four boxes in order to help prioritise them.

The Conflict Resolution Model

Psychologists have identified that our responses to conflict situations can be categorised in six different ways. Understanding these reactions and being able to identify them in can help to resolve or de-escalate a situation. By looking for the best way to respond good communication and relationships can be restored. The six responses are:

  • Fight. The aggressive response is to try and defeat the cause of the conflict but this has a downside in business and relationships as someone has to become the loser (lose-lose)
  • Flight. Running away is just avoidance; it does not solve the issue so it will still be there at a later date (win-lose)
  • Give up. This is the opposite of the fight response but the result is the same; there is a loser, and therefore this should be avoided (lose-win)
  • Evade responsibility. If someone cannot handle the situation they might give the responsibility to someone else. Bringing in another party generally reduces the chances of a favourable solution. (lose-lose)
  • Compromise. This is when negotiation leads to a solution but one where both parties lose some ground, therefore the conflict is resolved but at a cost to both sides (win-lose/win-lose).
  • Reach a consensus. This is where the conflict is turned into an opportunity where both parties can benefit; therefore it is more productive than a compromise and the best overall result (win-win).

The Making-of Model

This model was developed by The Grove consulting agency and looks at how someone’s past has an influence on their future. It is done by looking back at a specific period of time; be that a project, business venture or important period of life and then analysing it. For each time period the considerations are:

  • The people involved
  • The goals that were set
  • The challenges that were overcome
  • The successes
  • What lessons were learned

This tool can be particularly helpful when crafting a CV.

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

Developed by the psychologist Abraham Maslow, the hierarchy categorises human needs as:

  • Physiological needs (such as eating, sleeping, sex)
  • Security (shelter, work, health, physical security)
  • Social relationships (friends, community, love, a partner)
  • Recognition (money, status, power)
  • Self-actualisation (faith, self-belief, fulfilling potential, spirituality)

The first three are the basic needs and form the bottom three tiers of the triangle. If these needs are supplied a person no longer considers them. The last two (that form the top two levels of the pyramid) can never really be satisfied and are therefore areas of continual growth.

The Pareto Principle (The 80/20 Rule)

Vilfredo Pareto, an Italian economist, identified that 80% of success and good results come from just 20% of the input. In other words 20% of a company’s customers will be responsible for 80% of its revenue. 80% of a person’s results is down to 20% of their time. The key is identifying the productive 20% in any given situation and focussing on that.

The Belbin Team Model

Meredith Belbin conducted a series of studies and identified nine profiles that were needed in any successful team. They all have particular strengths and weaknesses, which is why all the roles are needed to provide balance. In summary the roles are:

  • Plant – an ideas generator, good at thinking but can find it hard to focus on one thing
  • Co-ordinator – a decision-maker and delegator who takes responsibility but can appear manipulative
  • Shaper – a ‘can-do’ person who overcomes challenges but can be impatient
  • Resource Investigator – someone who looks at possibilities and contacts external to the team; can be over-optimistic
  • Implementer – action-orientated, this person is reliable but can be inflexible
  • Monitor Evaluator – analytical and level headed but can be overly critical
  • Team worker – fosters communication and good relationships internally but can be indecisive
  • Completer Finisher – has very high standards, conscientious but can be too much of a perfectionist
  • Specialist – provide specialist insight and skills but can be too narrow in their thinking

If you want the right answers you have to start with the right questions

About The Right Questions

The Right Questions is for people who want greater clarity, purpose and success. There is a wealth of resources to boost your effectiveness in achieving goals, your leadership of yourself and others, and your decision-making.

Wherever you are on your journey, I hope that you find information on this site to help you on the next leg of your quest. Even if that is just the inspiration to take one small step in the right direction, then that is a success. If you can take pleasure in learning and travelling as you go, then so much the better.

Need help navigating your journey to success?

I love to serve people, helping them unlock their potential, empowering them as leaders, and assisting them in achieving their goals. Please get in touch and let me know how I can support you!